Party vote estimates
My pick for the NZ General election 2008. I'd guess the final result would not be out too much from this with an allowance of +/- 2% for Labour and National, Greens and Winston +/- 1%, and then Act, Maori, Dunne and Anderton +/- 0.5%.
Last election 2005:
LAB 41.1%, NAT 39.1%, NZF 5.7%, GRN 5.3%, MAO 2.1%, UNF 2.7%, ACT 1.5%, PRG 1.1% OTHERS 1.4%.
And if we run that through the election calculator we get:
It all depends on Winston getting back by hook or by crook. Let's say he got 4% and failed in Tauranga. Let's also say that the Maori party got 6 out of the 7 Maori seats. Anderton and Dunne and Hide will all be back. Where does that leave us?
123 MP parliament. Majority needed to govern: 62
ACT 4, + NAT 54 = 58
NEEDS 4 TO FORM GOVERNMENT
GRN 8, + PRG 1, + LAB 47 = 56
NEEDS 6 TO FORM GOVERNMENT
MAO 6, UNF 3
I encourage others to make similar guesses.