Party vote estimates
My pick for the NZ General election 2008. I'd guess the final result would not be out too much from this with an allowance of +/- 2% for Labour and National, Greens and Winston +/- 1%, and then Act, Maori, Dunne and Anderton +/- 0.5%.
Last election 2005:
LAB 41.1%, NAT 39.1%, NZF 5.7%, GRN 5.3%, MAO 2.1%, UNF 2.7%, ACT 1.5%, PRG 1.1% OTHERS 1.4%.
Party vote:
-------
100%
And if we run that through the election calculator we get:
It all depends on Winston getting back by hook or by crook. Let's say he got 4% and failed in Tauranga. Let's also say that the Maori party got 6 out of the 7 Maori seats. Anderton and Dunne and Hide will all be back. Where does that leave us?
123 MP parliament. Majority needed to govern: 62
Right Core:
ACT 4, + NAT 54 = 58
NEEDS 4 TO FORM GOVERNMENT
Left Core:
GRN 8, + PRG 1, + LAB 47 = 56
NEEDS 6 TO FORM GOVERNMENT
Unaligned:
MAO 6, UNF 3
I encourage others to make similar guesses.
posted by Tim Selwyn @ 10:47 am
14 comments
14 Comments:
Alright then:
ACT __ 1.6 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 2 ___1.74%
GRN __ 6.7 ___ 8 __ 0 __ 8 ___ 8 ___ 6.96%
PRG __ 1 _____ 1 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0.87%
MAO __ 3.4 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 0 ___ 5 ___ 4.35%
LAB __ 35.9 __ 43 __ ? __ ? __ 43 __ 37.39%
NAT __ 45.2 __ 54 __ ? __ ? __ 54 __ 46.96%
UNF __ 1.8 ___ 2 ___ 1 __ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1.74%
NZF __ (2.8) __ 0* __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0%
OTH __ (1.6) __ 0* _ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0%
TOT __ 95.6 _ 120 _ 70 _ 45 _ 115 _ 100%
Assumptions:
- Winston out (way out)
- Maori 5/7
- Anderton and Dunne and Hide return
115 MP parliament. Majority needed to govern: 58
Right Core:
ACT 2, + NAT 54 = 56
NEEDS 2 TO FORM GOVERNMENT
Left Core:
GRN 8, + PRG 1, + LAB 43 = 52
NEEDS 6 TO FORM GOVERNMENT
Unaligned:
MAO 5, UNF 2
Whew, what government could be made from that? I think ACT + NAT + UNF government looks most likely, with MAO confidence and supply. However a difference of only one or two seats, particularly in the minor parties, might make a disproportionate difference to the outcome.
ACT 2% - 2 MPs
GRN 8% - 10 MPs
JAP 1% - 1 MP
MAO 3% - 6 MPs
NZF 6% - 7 MPs
LAB 35% - 43 MPs
NAT 42% - 52 MPs
UNZ 1% - 1 MP
Other 2%
LGP has 54 of 122, NAU has 55. NZF with 7 can't quite make government, nor can Maori with 6. Great fun ensues on every single bill for three years, and a very interesting CnS arrangement either way.
The Nats need 45% and NZF taking out 4% of the opposition vote to have any chance of governing, unless Dunne picks up a big chunk of it again and Labour ends up down near 30%. Assuming they can't figure out how to deal with the Maori Party.
If both Labour and National could potentially form a government, who gets first crack? Someone told me it's the party with the largest party vote. Is that true?
Weka:
There are no rules or conventions around the coalition forming procedure.
First Anon - The parliament must consist of 120 MPs (with potential for more "overhang" if a party wins more electorates than their share of the party vote), so you can't have 115 MPs!
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Parliament could have fewer than 120 MPs in the unlikely event that a party wins votes entitling it to more list seats than it has people on its list...
OK first thoughts, will expand later, condition is that NZF is out, and Act get 3, if Act get 2, they could be in coalition and Nats will get more
Nat 56
Act 3
Right=59
Lab 48
Greens 8
Prog 1
Left =57
MP- 6
UF - 1
Total 122
Coalition = 62
Nat/UF = 57
plus 1 Maori Party (at least)
1 Act
Minority govt.
Maori C+S with policy gains as a condition Sharples as minister. Act co-operation agreement, Hide as Minister
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dammit I made a mistake, total should be 123
more here
Graeme:
Yes, I thought that was the idea of the 99 MP party: there were only two or three on the list, so if they got a big enough share of the vote they could bring the number down to 99.
Any government would like a cushion in that majority so that rogue MPs can be factored out of jeopardising stability. Hone Harawira might like an opportunity to publicly disagree - for example. Why force a big drama out of it if you don't have to? If you had two or three spare it would be very handy. By bringing the innocuous Peter Dunne into the tent you pick up a couple of extras that might prove crucial later into the term. Who else would politically aspire be revenue minister?
Rodney Hide?
First Anon - The parliament must consist of 120 MPs (with potential for more "overhang" if a party wins more electorates than their share of the party vote), so you can't have 115 MPs!
Ouch, I cocked that up. Let me recalculate the list seat allocation as a fraction only of the unwasted votes (95.6 since I projected the last 4.4% as being spent on parties that were under the threshold), and when rounded, Labour actually get 45 seats and National 57.
That comes to 119 seats. I guess the party with the largest remaining fraction of a seat must get the remaining seat, which means the Greens with 8.41% going up to 9, even though it's less than half a percentage point.
The Maori party remain the only party with an overhang, of 1 seat. That makes a total count of 121 seats and the recalculated totals are:
ACT 2, GRN 9, PRG 1, MAO 5, LAB 45, NAT 57, UNF 2
From that it works out as:
Majority needed to govern: 61
Right Core:
ACT 2, + NAT 57 = 59
NEEDS 2 TO FORM GOVERNMENT
Left Core:
GRN 9, + PRG 1, + LAB 45 = 54
NEEDS 7 TO FORM GOVERNMENT
Unaligned:
MAO 5, UNF 2
Still looking like ACT + NAT + UNF government, with MAO confidence and supply.
two words
GRAND COALITION
im calling it .
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