2011 Election much closer than the right wing pretend it will be
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The right wing have been reliant on the cheap brain fart telephone polls that are missing so much left wing opinion to claim the 2011 will be a walk in the park for National.
This is as optimistic as John Key is on NZ in Afghanistan.
The local body elections proved what Metro Editor Simon Wilson said, that there was a large shift to the left that went under the radar of the mainstream media. Before the exit polls started coming in, these cheap polls were claiming the election was neck and neck, it wasn't, it was a landslide to Len Brown.
The weighting and landline vs cellphone issues mean these cheap phone polls are more and more skewed to conservative opinion and it's in the interests of National's mouthpiece online, David Farrar (who is a pollster) to constantly hold them up as the gospel truth.
Not anymore...
National will need Act at election, website predicts
A website is predicting that National will likely need the embattled Act party to govern after next year's election.
Figures released by iPredict have National winning 58 seats - three short of the 61 needed for an outright majority in the 121 seat parliament.
United Future is only predicted to win one seat, with leader Peter Dunne expected to win a tight battle to retain his seat in Ohariu.
That could leave National needing the support of Rodney Hide and another of his Act MPs to retain power.
The right wing party is tipped to win two seats in the next election, despite being embroiled in a series of scandals in the last months.
iPredict CEO Matt Burgess said the 2011 election was looking a lot closer than many anticipated.
"If you take Act out of the picture, which is certainly a possibility, then National is looking vulnerable.
"John Key is really light on the right side of the political spectrum. If Act disappears, he is looking a bit bereft and possibly will be struggling to form a Government."
...as I've pointed out a thousand times, the 2011 election is on and it is no way the cake walk so many on the right (especially anonymous bloggers) seem to be pretending.
11 Comments:
...which presumably means that National will not field a decent candidate in Epsom...
This is as optimistic as John Key is on NZ in Afghanistan.
The very characteristic against which the 'insurgent crusaders' "insurge and crusade" are the ones that were carefully built into the American system of government.Ambition must be made to counteract ambition, wrote Madison.
Early America was both hostile to anything that seemed potentially tyrannical, and also realistic about how men were.James Madison, later to become the fourth president of the united states, devoted one of what became known as the federalist papers to the issue of checks and balances.Writing in 1788 under the pen name publius, madison talked about the security needed against a gradual concentration of the several powers in the same department.The answer was in effect to have competing and separate bodies keeping watch on each other.
Arguably the modern presidency, the senate, the congress and the supreme court or washington pretty well illustrate the vices that assist republican virtues.They are structured so as to have to negotiate with each other and with citizens (often organised into lobbies) and to compromise with each other in order to get things done.And these are precisely the characteristics with which the crusader and the insurgent are most impatient.
Every new candidate runs as an insurgent against conventional politics.
There is no tyranny of the majority in a democracy, and De Tocqueville in Democracy in America was aiming to constrain the power to the people through the separation of powers between the three branches of govt. in the States. The president was not supposed to ride roughshod over anybody else, by being re-elected. That is why the constitution limits them to two terms only. That still amounts to nearly ten years as leader of the free world.
CLOSE?
...which presumably means that National will not field a decent candidate in Epsom...
It certainly looks that way, unless National decide to go early to the Polls next year and use ACT's implosion as the trigger, the pollsters at National and David Farrar seem to be the only people who believe that National will get over 50% on their own.
Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, the wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Yep, we going to take the opinion of metro magazine, the magazine of the chattering latte-sipping urban classes.
News flash Bomber, inner city urbanites in posonby and grey lynn do not represent the rest of NZ.
Maybe if you talked to people who don't represent these demographics you'd get a more accurate view of normal NZers beliefs. Can't see it happening though.
Yep, we going to take the opinion of metro magazine, the magazine of the chattering latte-sipping urban classes.
News flash Bomber, inner city urbanites in posonby and grey lynn do not represent the rest of NZ.
Maybe if you talked to people who don't represent these demographics you'd get a more accurate view of normal NZers beliefs. Can't see it happening though.
Did you even read the link Anon? What has any thing you've posted here have ANY connection to the link Anon?
Your bullshit is liberals say blah blah blah and they aren't real NZers, what the fuck does that comment have to do with the ipredict predictions???
Weren't they real New Zealanders voting in the local body elections?
Does it matter where a commentator is from for him to make an observation, especially given it played itself out to be accurate as witnessed in the local body elections.
Jeez this ‘anonymous’ dude is getting to me, couldn’t every commenter be required to have a handle for exercising the privilege of commenting here at a site paid for and maintained at no cost to them?
I know the blog owner can see the IP address of these gutless sods but it is a pain for some of us readers.
Anyway back on topic, I think you are right about the polling. Real life, unemployment etc is flattening some of the Natz aspirational ‘change’ bs. Teachers and education are a classic slow burner even in tory electorates, tax cuts equal less social services, childcare costs up, ACC to be privatised it goes on. Asset sales in Term 2. Whats not to like about a 1 term limit for Mr Floppy.
I thought the local body election, particularly the mayoral ones, was a strong indicator that there was a disconnect between "public opinion" and public opinion.
Isn't Winston Peters looking to stand in Helensville? I wonder how big a chunk that will take out of Key's constituency.
This current caretaker government will fall in 2011.
It has blundered far too many times;
* attempted mining in Schedule 4 conservation lands;
* caving to Hollywood Wide Boys;
* screwing down wages whilst Key promised us parity with our Aussie cuzzies;
* reducing early childhood education by $400 million whilst giving high income earners some very nice tax breaks;
* tax cuts for high income earners whilst raising GST to 15% - "fiscally neutral" my Aunt Fanny!
* wasting time and money on a cycle-track to "kick-start" our stagnant economy - and not much else;
* a total lack of imagination when it comes to economic stimulus;
* a total gutlessness when it comes to our growing booze-binging culture;
* and probably a few other issues that have made National look like a Do Nothing guvmint.
Key has been lucky in that his government hasn't suffered any major scandal such as Labour did with Winston 'Toxic' Peters. Instead, his support is being whittled down bit by bit - the proverbial Death by a Thousand Cuts.
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