Election date book now open
Following last election's successful book on guessing the date of the election (not to be confused with the election party vote result book) it is now time to open a new book. Last time round quite a few punters were on the money - including David Farrar.
With things looking so nasty for Labour I'll have to weight the expectation to a November date.Date of the 2008 General Election
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UPDATED: Added rugby tests and holidays
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16 August....
23 August....
30 August....
6 September....33-1
13 September (NZ v Aus/Brisbane)....33-1
20 September....25-1
27 September(School Holidays)....20-1
4 October (School Holidays)....15-1
11 October (School Holidays)....12-1
18 October....
25 October (Labour Day)....
1 November (NZ v Aus/Hong Kong)....
8 November (NZ v Sct/Edinburgh)....
15 November. (NZ v Ire/Dublin)...
Please leave your predictions in the comments and I will put your picks on. I will also add potentially clashing events as I become aware of them. Last time round it was key rugby tests mainly. Odds will be altered from time to time to reflect where the punters are going. I'm starting the odds out on the basis that Labour is a turkey and the election is Christmas and an early Christmas is any date before mid October. I suspect they will be hanging in there for Bollard to drop interest rates too.
posted by Tim Selwyn @ 9:49 am
17 comments
17 Comments:
Actual odds - cool.
[As opposed to money odds]
It's nice that some things avoid being dumbed down - how many people know the difference between odds of 3-4 and 4-3?
For your list - October 25th is the Saturday of Labour Weekend, while I suppose Labour might use it for the free publicity, it might also stop anyone advertising a Labour Weekend sale (old Electoral Act polling day restrictions, not Electoral Finance Act advertising restrictions) so that's probably out.
...
I'm going with November 8th - I think the 15th has the wiff of desperation about it and it will come up every time, 'The last possible date to have an election' stuff.
I find myself agreeing with Bomber..
(rushes to scrub his soul vigorously) Nov 8th is the date. They cannot leave it till the last week as this smacks of desperation but why have it any sooner, three months pay in lieu is the fuck off money that many labour backbenchers can expect and they won't be keen to get that cheque too soon.
As long as its after I get back to NZ (Oct 26) I dont care.
No I think November 8 is probably it. Allow people to have had a few pay days with the tax cuts, allow interest rates to come back etc etc.
Although - there is the small matter of the US election...I wonder if in terms of media coverage Nov 8 is a little close...
Cheers
Scott
Perhaps. Melbourne Cup and US general election are on the Tuesday 4th. Guy Fawkes is 5th.
Labour Day was an oversight on my part - I'll change that.
The release dates of key stats that may turn out negative for Labour is also a factor at play. The PM wouldn't schedule a poll to coincide with negative news in the last week or two of an election.
25th Oct
They'll hang on hoping for good news or a Nat stuff up, but not too long.
I'm going with Nov 8 - lets see if I can pick 2 electiOn dates in a row!
I guessed October 25 a month or so ago and I'm going to stick with it.
8 November.
What Scott said, plus, Helen's caution will keep her waiting to see whether the clouds might part...
August 30th.
Its not like things are going to get better.
Or...
Nov 15th because they took too long to work out is wasn't going to get any better.
Rather large bet on Australia's Centrebet for Nov 8th, inside knowledge from 9th Floor no doubt cashing in. That day is now odds on. Bookmakers seldom wrong. 123 days from now
From Statistics NZ's release calendar;
Tue 21 October; September quarter CPI
Thu 30 October; Recorded Crime Statistics for the '07 Financial year
Mon 3 November; Labour Costs and QES
Thu 6 November; Household Labour Force Survey (this includes the unemployment rate)
Thu 13 November; Retail Trade Survey and National Accounts (annual's only)
November 8 would be suicide if a poor unemployment figure comes out two days earlier.
Can you put me down for November 1st?
Cheers,
Phil Anderson
Nov 22nd for election.
Richard H - that would take a special electoral law, rammed through the house over the objections of opponents who would (rightly) call it undemocratic and unfair.
Oh, hang on ...
Please to say that I got it right last time, and I'm going with 18 October.
Well indeed Michael!
I as I understand it however the election must be held by Nov 15, but hey perhaps “Just in terms of sheer organization, I do not think that is possible” to quote the PM in regard to the smacking referendum.
My election default pick then is Nov 15 unless of course Labour decide for the sake of democracy to change the law and not hold one!
Richard H - that would take a special electoral law, rammed through the house over the objections of opponents who would (rightly) call it undemocratic and unfair.
And a 75% parliamentary supermajority!
Hoping for a October 18th election. My birthday. I can think of better birthday presents, but I'll be happy with the dumping Clark & Labour as a present...
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