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Monday, September 19, 2005

ELECTION BOOK: Conclusions: is Centrebet wrong?

Key differences

TUMEKE election book was on the election night % of party vote, Centrebet is on which party provides the next PM. That is a crucial difference in what we were effectively measuring during this wild ride of the past eight weeks. I was measuring it in a notional sense whilst Centrebet operates a book consisting of many New Zealand punters. My odds have already proved accurate with Labour's 1% margin of victory reflected in the minimum 5c difference in odds at close of betting. But for all of the variations we were tracking each other closely except for the first few days and the last few days - where Centrebet had National in front. I, at no point had National in front. Centrebet had to act aggresively at times to attract bets, at one point (see below) they were at $1.28 for Labour while I stayed at $1.45 and they blew National out to $3.25 and then took it all the way back to $2.30 in three days.

Centrebet over-reactions

They closed their book during TV debates (at least the first one) and then altered it on the back of it. Crazy stuff really. Sure, take note of it, analyse it, but start making big calls based on it? They did - I didn't because it wasn't really that relative beyond a wee tweak.

Being "on the ground" I could react quicker and with more confidence in interpreting the data or events than Centrebet. That was evident, I think, in the steady movement of my odds over time rather than sudden adjustments (see timeline below).

The big punter who put 50 grand on Labour at $1.50 tilted their book - and their need for National money forced them out to get it. In the last days (as I have said elsewhere) National punters were very bouyant and laid down a lot of money...


Labour were always going to be in a better position to form a government than National (even if National was the bigger party on the night). National "strategists" - if indeed they have any - haven't grasped MMP (esp. vis a vis Act) and perhaps niether have the National punters. Since they constituted the bulk of the market at the last days then their decisions were reflected.

Can Centrebet still be right?

The only way Centrebet, with it's reputation for getting it right, can be right is if one of two things occur:
1. Maori Party strike a deal with NZ First to go with National, or
2. The Greens dive below the 5% threshold and National gets support from NZ First or Maori party
These options seem very remote - possible, technically feasible at this stage - but highly improbable. Will this be a first time for the unthinkable?

----------ODDS DATA PEAKS-----------

Shortest odds for Labour/longest National:
TUMEKE: $1.45/$2.60 -24-30 Aug.
CENTREBET: $1.28/$3.25 -29 Aug.

Shortest odds for National/longest Labour:
TUMEKE: $1.90/$1.85 -25-28 Jul & 16 Sept.
CENTREBET: $1.65/$2.10 -16 Sept.

----------ODDS DATA TIMELINE-----------

16 Sept. LAB-1.85/2.10 NAT-1.90/1.65
16 Sept. LAB-1.70/2.00 NAT-2.05/1.70
15 Sept. LAB-1.70/1.90 NAT-2.05/1.80
14 Sept. LAB-1.52/1.85 NAT-2.40/1.85
14 Sept. LAB-1.52/1.55 NAT-2.40/2.30
13 Sept. LAB-1.48/1.40 NAT-2.55/2.70
12 Sept. LAB-1.48/1.40 NAT-2.55/2.70
11 Sept. LAB-1.49/1.40 NAT-2.40/2.70
10 Sept. LAB-1.49/1.40 NAT-2.40/2.70
09 Sept. LAB-1.49/1.40 NAT-2.40/2.70
09 Sept. LAB-1.49/1.55 NAT-2.40/2.30
08 Sept. LAB-1.66/1.60 NAT-2.12/2.20
08 Sept. LAB-1.66/1.65 NAT-2.12/2.10
07 Sept. LAB-1.66/1.70 NAT-2.12/2.00
07 Sept. LAB-1.66/1.80 NAT-2.12/1.90
06 Sept. LAB-1.66/1.75 NAT-2.12/1.95
05 Sept. LAB-1.66/1.75 NAT-2.12/1.95
04 Sept. LAB-1.58/1.55 NAT-2.25/2.25
03 Sept. LAB-1.58/1.55 NAT-2.25/2.25
02 Sept. LAB-1.58/1.50 NAT-2.25/2.40
01 Sept. LAB-1.58/1.55 NAT-2.25/2.30
31 Aug. LAB-1.58/1.50 NAT-2.25/2.55
30 Aug. LAB-1.45/1.50 NAT-2.60/2.55
29 Aug. LAB-1.45/1.28 NAT-2.60/3.25
28 Aug. LAB-1.45/1.40 NAT-2.60/2.70
27 Aug. LAB-1.45/1.40 NAT-2.60/2.70
26 Aug. LAB-1.45/1.40 NAT-2.60/2.70
25 Aug. LAB-1.45/1.40 NAT-2.60/2.70
24 Aug. LAB-1.45/1.40 NAT-2.60/2.70
23 Aug. LAB-1.50/1.40 NAT-2.45/2.70
22 Aug. LAB-1.55/1.45 NAT-2.30/2.55
21 Aug. LAB-1.55/1.50 NAT-2.30/2.40
20 Aug. LAB-1.55/1.46 NAT-2.30/2.50
19 Aug. LAB-1.55/1.46 NAT-2.30/2.50
18 Aug. LAB-1.55/1.46 NAT-2.30/2.50
17 Aug. LAB-1.55/1.46 NAT-2.30/2.50
16 Aug. LAB-1.55/1.46 NAT-2.30/2.50
15 Aug. LAB-1.55/1.46 NAT-2.30/2.50
14 Aug. LAB-1.55/1.46 NAT-2.30/2.50
13 Aug. LAB-1.55/1.44 NAT-2.30/2.62
12 Aug. LAB-1.60/1.44 NAT-2.20/2.62
11 Aug. LAB-1.60/1.46 NAT-2.20/2.50
10 Aug. LAB-1.60/1.53 NAT-2.20/2.35
09 Aug. LAB-1.60/1.60 NAT-2.20/2.20
08 Aug. LAB-1.65/1.60 NAT-2.10/2.20
07 Aug. LAB-1.65/1.60 NAT-2.10/2.20
06 Aug. LAB-1.70/1.60 NAT-2.05/2.20
05 Aug. LAB-1.70/1.65 NAT-2.05/2.10
04 Aug. LAB-1.70/1.65 NAT-2.05/2.10
03 Aug. LAB-1.70/1.65 NAT-2.05/2.10
02 Aug. LAB-1.70/1.65 NAT-2.05/2.10
01 Aug. LAB-1.75/1.65 NAT-2.00/2.10
31 July LAB-1.75/1.65 NAT-2.00/2.10
30 July LAB-1.75/1.65 NAT-2.00/2.10
29 July LAB-1.75/1.65 NAT-2.00/2.10
28 July LAB-1.85/1.80 NAT-1.90/1.90
27 July LAB-1.85/1.83 NAT-1.90/1.83
26 July LAB-1.85/1.90 NAT-1.90/1.75
25 July LAB-1.85/1.83 NAT-1.90/1.83


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