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Thursday, January 31, 2008

Latest odds: McCain hot favourite/Centrebet backs Key

Centerbet's odds for the next Prime Minister after the general election:
2.60 LABOUR PARTY (Helen Clark)
1.47 NATIONAL PARTY (John Key)

What centrebet got wrong last time (and that I got right) was the lack of mates that National has in parliament and their misreading of the on the ground situation and also the massive amount of money that gung-ho Nat supporters poured in to back Brash. They could well be wrong this time too.

To the US odds now that Edwards has backed out.
The Democratic nominee:
1.40-1.50 Clinton
2.50-2.92 Obama

The Republican nominee:
1.14-1.20 McCain
2.90-6.80 Romney
21-36 Huckabee
64-101 Paul
50-101 Guiliani
- pulled out this afternoon

And the parties:
1.40-1.57 Democrat
2.25-2.75 Republican

So it looks at this stage that the States will have either its first female President or its first black President. Of course it is possible that out of the wash they could both be on the ticket as Pres and VP. Could be a watershed moment.


At 31/1/08 1:02 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...


At 31/1/08 2:05 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...


At 31/1/08 3:46 pm, Anonymous jr said...

Both good points well made.

Got agree on the NZ General Election, if its was 'biggest party after the next election then I could agree, but PM stats...that's a bit off!?!

Although I'll be amazed if the biggest party at any election doesn't end up cobbling together some unholy alliance based on pandering to many differing special interests to secure power. This is politics and after a long spell out the Nats WANT power back, so I could see some very odd coalitions taking shape.

Can't see Hillary doing it, she'll beat Obama ok, but is she going to be able to win the extra swing states needed against a Republican (McCain) who is popular with Democrats and Independents, that Al Gore and John Kerry couldn't win against someone like Bush. I really can't see it.

McCain and Huckabee to take it.

At 31/1/08 4:07 pm, Blogger Bomber said...

But Bush took those swing states with the evangelical vote, McCain can't count on that sort of support

At 31/1/08 8:09 pm, Blogger Luke said...

...do you have faith in the US election Bomber?

The last two weren't exactly legal, first being rigged, second was thrown.

I think it's sad how the US has let itself be fucked in the ass by the world bankers after the loss of the Kennedys and Martin Luther King.

A black man or a woman president is just the thing to make the country feel like they're progressing. In the end, all to the presidency throne are only there with the backing of big $$$. Mind fucking the people's easy.

At 1/2/08 10:10 am, Anonymous Smirk said...

ha ha luke...got any proof for those assertions? How exactly has the US "Let itself be fucked in the ass by the world bankers"? Word of advice champ, don't get caught up to much in conspiracies, whether of your own or someone else's making, you'll go crazy :P Oh, and don't read too many Dan Brown novels either ha ha

At 1/2/08 12:37 pm, Anonymous jr said...

Good point Bomber, and I do um and ar about this one. McCain will struggle to get his evangelicals out for sure, and some Republican commentators are furious with his success, and have stated they won't vote, irrespective of whether its Hillary he's up against.

I do think though that the Democrats themselves are split on Hillary, you either support and vote for her now, or you are quite unsure. I could see McCain picking up quite a few of the softer Democrat and a lot of Independents.

The fundies may also be more inclined to go with him if they think Huckabee will keep him on the stright and narrow. Would be very healthy for the Republicans to win without those clowns as the capture they have over the GOP is insane, considering their numbers and its only a 2 party system.

I dearly hope that Obama picks up a lot of the Edwards vote, and would be happy enough with him in the big job. He may be able to pull a Bill Clinton and win some of those tough states on the back of his charisma..whereas Hillary I'm not so sure about?!

At 1/2/08 5:29 pm, Blogger Luke said...

"ha ha luke...got any proof for those assertions? How exactly has the US "Let itself be fucked in the ass by the world bankers"?

Hrrm how about Executive Order No. 11110?

It gave the U.S. government the power to issue currency, without going through the Federal Reserve.

Why is that important?

When currency is produced by the reserve, there is an added interest to each dollar that is to be payed back. Seeing as the reserve is the only producer of money then where does the money to pay the interest come from? Back to the federal reserve (note that the federal reserve is not apart of the government, its 100% private)

About $4billion was produced of the "United States Dollar" until the death of Kennedy, Johnson stopped production saying that the treasury didn't have enough silver or gold to back it up...even though trillions of dollars worth of gold and silver was ceased during the depression.
Which by the way was a product of the federal reserve.

Kennedy challenged the government of money by challenging the two most successful vehicles that have ever been used to drive up debt - war and the creation of money by a privately-owned central bank. His efforts to have all troops out of Vietnam by 1965 and Executive Order 11110 would have severely cut into the profits and control of the New York banking establishment.

Before you throw "that's a lie, Johnson pushed on with Vietnam and that's what Kennedy would of done"


If you've ever listened or read any Kennedy speech, you would know that he was not a believer in war and knew the truth of who really runs the U.S.


At 1/2/08 5:35 pm, Blogger Luke said...

By the way Dan Brown's far to smart and creative for a dick like you to criticize because you yourself have no talent and bring down the people that do because you yourself don't know what it's like to be a free thinking human being because you are so fucking caught up in the trivial shit of this world you ignore what potential we as people have.

It's not Dan Brown who's an idiot, it's stupid fucks like you who get sucked into that shit because your level of perception is narrowed down to what is said and done on tv.

People like you is the reason religion fundamentalism exists, too fucking stupid to challenge something so irrational, because people like you have no creativeness within them selves.


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