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Thursday, February 04, 2010

The IPCC rebuttal



The right wing climate denial blogosphere of Un PC, No Minister, Kiwi Blog and Mac Dr have been making big oil funded Frank Luntz proud with their increased attack on the science behind the IPCC report based on cherry picked attacks on the anecdotal elements of the IPCC report alongside the inadequacies within Peer reviewed science. The Guardian makes the same points, but the fact is that there were problems with peer reviewed science WELL BEFORE climate change research, pretending that it is some type of new sneaky evil being forced upon the world by those tricky tree huggers is a lie and fails to acknowledge the rest of the vast body of research which shows that man made pollution is causing the planet to warm.

Hot Topic does a very good job of dismantling the Herald editorial and of course their attack on Poneke's recent climate denial nonsense is another reminder that climate denial still hasn't done a thing to diminish the point that human made pollution is causing the planet to warm.

The climate skeptic position that Greenpeace with $30 million can out spin Exxon Mobil valued at half a trillion is as believable as the climate skeptic position that all 6 billion of us and our pollution has NO EFFECT on the planets climate whatsoever. That is fairies at the bottom of the garden stuff.

The IPCC rebuttal of these criticisms came out on the 2nd of Feb and makes for interesting reading...

An IPCC assessment involves a very large proportion of the climate science community at one level or another. For the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), 450 scientists from 130 countries served as Lead Authors. Another 800 served as contributing authors. More than 2500 experts provided over 90,000 review comments. And the scientists who were not directly involved in the writing or reviewing contributed through producing some of the literature on which the entire assessment is based. In the course of four lead author meetings, the chapter teams discussed and debated the quality and validity of the literature and used their expert judgment to agree conclusions. The process requires not only outstanding scientific expertise and the ability to synthesize large bodies of literature, but also effective teamwork. None of these authors or reviewers is paid for working on an IPCC assessment which, for the lead authors, can represent a very significant fraction of their time. The work is entirely on an unpaid, volunteer basis, including that of the chair of IPCC and all of the elected leadership.

The integrity in the IPCC assessments and their fidelity to the underlying scientific information comes from four main components, all thoroughly specified in the IPCC procedures. These are (1) broad, balanced participation in the author teams, (2) emphasis on a comprehensive treatment of the relevant scientific literature, (3) two stages of widely distributed, independently monitored review, and (4) word-by-word, consensus approval, by governments, of the Summaries for Policymakers. With each component, important features help ensure high fidelity to the underlying science and minimal opportunity for messages to be shaped by the views of one or a few individuals. The broad, international author teams, selected from government nominations to give appropriate geographical and gender balance as well as scientific expertise, usually include people who do not know each other before the process starts. Often, authors on a single chapter may disagree about important details. The emphasis on a comprehensive treatment of the literature means that relevant topics cannot get missed, if they are raised by authors or in the reviews. The multi-stage review process provides the opportunity for a very wide range of experts to have inputs, and independent monitoring ensures that author teams respond appropriately to every review comment. The fourth stage, word-by-word consensus approval by governments, is an important check on all the other components of the process. It is remarkable to think that every participating government has approved every word in an IPCC Summary for Policymakers.


Have poor research methods regarding peer reviewed material come to light? Yes, but they WERE ALWAYS THERE – pretending that it is unique to the Climate Warming debate is a lie in itself, and these criticisms are again cherry picked fringe anecdotal issues to the vast body of work that shows us man made pollution is heating the planet in a manner that threatens our ability for modern civilization as we know it to continue. Climate denial simply attempts to deny the political movement necessary to push through the sustainable change that are now vital to offset breaching tipping points within our biosphere.

Climate deniers are still the creationists at an evolution conference.

UPDATE George Monbiot whom I consider one of the best commentators alongside the Guardian's Fred Pearce on Climate Change makes the point in his latest blog attacking the University peer review standards...

Climate change email scandal shames the university and requires resignations
Damaging as some of this material is, at least people on this side of the climate science fence are able to confront the problem. Both stories – the glacier error and the revelations about the Chinese weather stations – were broken by the brilliant reporter Fred Pearce, who is possibly the world's longest serving environmental journalist, and has spent decades explaining and championing climate science. The IPCC's glacier claim was actually drawn from an article of Fred's, published in New Scientist in 1999. But it was he who exposed the mistake the panel had made.

On the other side of the debate, people are in denial not only about the science of climate change but also about manipulation and deception by other climate change deniers. They stoutly ignore far graver evidence of falsification and fabrication by their own side, even when there is smoking gun evidence that their champions have secretly taken money from fossil fuel companies to make false claims. They make no attempt to hold each other to account or to sustain any standards of truth at all.

In fact, as Fred Pearce has shown, even their claims about the material in the hacked emails are almost all false.

The vast body of climate science still shows that manmade climate change is real and that it presents a massive challenge to human survival. But those of us who seek to explain its implications and call for action must demand the highest possible standards from the people whose work we promote, and condemn any failures to release data or admit and rectify mistakes. We do no one any favours – least of all ourselves – by wasting our time promoting false claims

7 Comments:

At 4/2/10 4:12 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Has Phil Jones been reinstated to his post at the University of East Anglia yet?

Obviously if he was cleared of any professional or academic misconduct then he would have resumed his post.

I'm sure you're looking to an independent investigation Bomber.

FYI Large oil companies like Shell no longer own the most of the known oil reserves. The largest belong to countries like Venezuela which hasa nationalised their oil industries and who are dependent on oil for their survival. Given your craven support of 'socialist' anti-american dictatorships it's not surprising you're given them a pass and have to rely on demonising the oil industry.

 
At 4/2/10 5:49 pm, Blogger Bomber said...

My point was the oil industries far exceed the wealth greenpeace has anon, and these oil companies have funded climate denial. Trying to drag in socialist' anti-american dictatorships in an attempt to have a go at me seems childish. Lift your game.

 
At 4/2/10 7:51 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The single fact that these people destroyed raw data is enough reason to throw all their results out the window.


It does not matter how rich the oil companies are, you have to show how much money they spent supporting debunkers. How rich the oil companies are does not mean they spent more than greenpeace.
Nor does it matter if they did spend a lot more, what matters is whether or not what the skeptics say is true.
At the moment the liars all appear to be in the warmist camp.


Warmists are the christian mob at the library of Alexandria.

 
At 5/2/10 12:09 am, Blogger Bomber said...

It does not matter how rich the oil companies are, you have to show how much money they spent supporting debunkers. How rich the oil companies are does not mean they spent more than greenpeace.

For crying out loud, do you even read the links?

Climate Change Skeptics
The world’s largest-ever gathering of global warming skeptics will assemble Sunday in New York City to confront the issue, “Global warming: Was it ever really a crisis?” About 800 scientists, economists, legislators, policy activists, and media representatives are expected to register at the second International Conference on Climate Change, opening Sunday, March 8 and concluding Tuesday, March 10 at the New York Marriott Marquis Hotel.

Hmmm, and I wonder who is organizing this climate change sKeptics picnic in wunderland? The Heartland Institute? Ummmm, aren’t they the very same Heartland Institute who until 2006 were receiving money from Exxon Mobile and who also is behind the Tobacco Industries ludicrous position that Tobacco isn’t scientifically proven to cause cancer and as such there shouldn’t be taxes on cigarettes?

Shouldn’t we at least be honest that much of the climate sKeptic agenda is actually funded by big oil?

Between 1998 and 2005: ExxonMobil Grants $16 Million to Global Warming Skeptic Organizations
ExxonMobil disperses roughly $16 million to organizations that are challenging the scientific consensus view that greenhouse gases are causing global warming. For many of the organizations, ExxonMobil is their single largest corporate donor, often providing more than 10 percent of their annual budgets. A study by the Union of Concerned Scientists will find that “[v]irtually all of them publish and publicize the work of a nearly identical group of spokespeople, including scientists who misrepresent peer-reviewed climate findings and confuse the public’s understanding of global warming. Most of these organizations also include these same individuals as board members or scientific advisers.” After the Bush administration withdraws from the Kyoto Protocol, the oil company steps up its support for these organizations. Some of the ExxonMobil-funded groups tell the New York Times that the increase is a response to the rising level of public interest in the issue. “Firefighters’ budgets go up when fires go up,” explains Fred L. Smith, head of the Competitive Enterprise Institute. Explaining ExxonMobil’s support for these organizations, company spokesman Tom Cirigliano says: “We want to support organizations that are trying to broaden the debate on an issue that is so important to all of us. There is this whole issue that no one should question the science of global climate change. That is ludicrous. That’s the kind of dark-ages thinking that gets you in a lot of trouble.”

 
At 5/2/10 12:10 am, Blogger Bomber said...

The following is a list of some of the organizations funded by ExxonMobil:
American Enterprise Institute (AEI)
- AEI receives $1,625,000 from ExxonMobil between and 1998 and 2005. During this period, it plays host to a number of climate contrarians.
American Legislative Exchange Council - In 2005, ExxonMobil grants $241,500 to this organization. Its website features a non-peer-reviewed paper by climate contrarian Patrick Michaels.
Center for Science and Public Policy - Started at the beginning of 2003, this one-man operation receives $232,000 from ExxonMobil. The organization helps bring scientists to Capitol Hill to testify on global warming and the health effects of mercury.
Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow - Between 2004 and 2005, this organization receives $215,000 from ExxonMobil. Its advisory panel includes Sallie Baliunas, Robert Balling, Roger Bate, Sherwood Idso, Patrick Michaels, and Frederick Seitz, all of whom are affiliated with other ExxonMobil-funded organizations.

Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) - Founded in 1984 to fight government regulation on business, CEI started receiving large grants from ExxonMobil after Myron Ebell moved there from Frontiers of Freedom in 1999. CEI, along with another ExxonMobil-supported enterprise, the Cooler Heads Coalition, runs the website GlobalWarming.Org, which is part of an effort to “dispel the myths of global warming by exposing flawed economic, scientific, and risk analysis.” Between 2000 and 2003, the CEI receives $1,380,000, or 16 percent of the total funds donated by Exxon during that period.
Frontiers of Freedom - The organization receives $230,000 from Exxon in 2002 and $40,000 in 2001. It has an annual budge of about $700,000.
George C. Marshall Institute - The institute is known primarily for its work advocating a “Star Wars” missile defense program. Between 1998 and 2005, Exxon-Mobil grants $630,000 to the Marshall Institute primarily to underwrite the institute’s climate change effort. William O’Keefe, the organization’s CEO, once worked as the executive vice president and chief operating officer of the American Petroleum Institute. He has also served on the board of directors of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, another global warming skeptic organization, and is chairman emeritus of the Global Climate Coalition.
Heartland Institute - In 2005, this organization receives $119,000 from ExxonMobil. Its website offers articles by the same scientists promoted by other ExxonMobil-funded global warming skeptic organizations.

 
At 5/2/10 12:10 am, Blogger Bomber said...

Tech Central Station - TCS is a web-based organization that provides news, commentary, and analysis focusing on the societal tensions and strains that are concomitant with historical change. TCS proclaims itself as a strong believer of the “material power of free markets, open societies, and individual human ingenuity to raise living standards and improve lives.” Until 2006, the website is operated by a public relations firm called the DCI Group, which is a registered ExxonMobil lobbying firm. In 2003 TCS receives $95,000 from ExxonMobil to be used for “climate change support.” TCS contributors on the global warming issue include the same group of people that is promoted by several of the other ExxonMobil-funded global warming skeptic organizations. In 2006, TCS will pay the public relations firm Medialink Worldwide to produce a video news release that challenges the view that global warming has increased the intensity of hurricanes. The piece is later shown on a Mississippi television station and presented as a regular news report.

I personally love the story about the Public Interest Watch from 2002 – this was a front group funded by Exxon-Mobile which attacked Greenpeace by suggesting that Greenpeace were avoiding tax – amazingly Greenpeace was audited because of this one claim by an Exxon-Mobil front group.

 
At 5/2/10 8:49 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Couple of point.

There is no actual evidence that any raw data has been destroyed. CRU may have destroyed its copies of the data ask required by the owners of that data. It is still kept by the original organisations that collected it.

Second, two out of three of the reported errors in the WG2 report are not as bad are reported in the Times. See Hot Topic and Deltoid for more.

Three, it doesn't matter how much of the total oil resource Shell and Exxon own. What matters is how much of their substantial revenue comes from oil; pretty much all of it.

Doug

 

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