Broken arm-gate
Australia set for sharp economic slowdown
A leading economic forecaster has warned its clients to batten down the hatches for the sharpest deceleration Australia's economy has ever experienced. But Australia is in a better position than almost any other rich nation heading into recession, Access Economics says. And not everyone - especially those who have no reason to fear losing their job - will be impacted adversely by the dramatic slowdown this year. "Really big and bad news is headed our way," Access said in its Business Outlook for December 2008, released on Monday. "Conditions are worsening very rapidly. This is not just a recession, it will be the sharpest deceleration Australia's economy has ever seen."
I remember arguing with some right wing mates a couple of years ago, that within the context of the environment, the constant growth model of capitalism was flawed because at some point there wouldn’t be anymore resources, I added that the consumer culture of SUV’s, plasma TVs and cosmetic surgery all paid for on credit cards exacerbated this. They countered that I was a stupid lefty who needed to go hug a tree, well it seems a capital gains tax free property environment has gone pop and while Real Estate Agents proclaim it’s never been a better time to buy, predictions are that property still has 20% to fall and the unemployment rate from 4% to 7.5% doesn’t include the massive shift in NZers I’m predicting will flee from the sinking Australian economy to get back home, things are going to get a lot worse. A lot worse.
How many times do we need to point out that greedy unregulated capitalism doesn’t work, the profits are privatized and as we’ve seen the cost is made public.
Oh and while we are on this – is it just me or are these ‘news’ stories on John Key’s broken arm or Paula Bennett telling off teenagers a waste of fucking time? I mean it’s not pleasant for the Prime Minister and it was nice of the Social Development Minister, but for the love of Christ, we are facing the worst recession we’ve experienced in a generation and I would prefer that the media actually ask both of them what the hell they intend to do about that rather than bullshit news about crap that really doesn’t actually matter. The lead TVNZ news story on John’s broken arm had experts on bone breaks, chats with surgeons, a short history of other leaders falling over but not one fucking question about what John intends to do to stop the economy going belly up.
posted by Bomber @ 7:17 am
6 comments
6 Comments:
I dont think the property market will fall another 20%, but I would suspect another 8-10%.
Such statements are however a little misleading. What do you mean by property? What end of the market are you referring too? Sections for instance have fallen dramatically - you can't give them away - who wants to develop now?
You ascribe the blame to a lack of capital gains in property - but this is only partly true. Firstly, there is a capital gains tax on property to those who seek to make a profit. If you buy, do up and sell, its taxable. Now there are enforcement issues, but that is a taxable activity.
Rental properties are not taxable I acknowledge, and perhaps tax should be applied to investment properties (not to the main residence)
But there are also land supply issues, and development costs which have seen prices increase dramatically. These need to be addressed urgently
Despite what real estate agents say, the market is fucked. In NZ, there are too many people who refuse to acknowledge how bad this thing is.
The statistics don't lie - but you actually need to look at three key numbers together to get an idea
1) Price
2) Number of houses sold
3) Time taken to sell
The real estate agents don't quote those figures.
I wouldn't be buying for investment reasons at the moment (unless you are a cash buyer and can get a yield of 7-8% min)
What more can the media really say about the recession? More talking heads or opinion articles? I'd rather they did novel stories about bullshit than anymore financial information from that fat guy with a beard and grubby T-Shirt (the guy from interest.co.nz).
In order to stop the economy from going down the demand for NZ goods from US, UK, and Asia is going to have to increase.
So Bomber is basically asking John Key what he plans to do about the events over which he has no control.
This whining betrays bomber ignorance about economic affairs. But like a good socialist he wants his new daddy to do everything for him.
Like it or not, it's worldwide frontpage news
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7838198.stm
Good news for national though, we have a minister who breaks up violent street fights while Helen Clark weeps because maoris say mean things about her.
I recall over 6 months ago commenting here that National had a "No Talent Team", and that nothing had changed with them since the Brash/Key/Bretheren Debacles 3 years ago.
Now that we have the (no)changlings in office prescribing change that they have no clue as how to bring about, why does it surprise anyone that they have buried their heads in the sand? You didn't need to be any sharper than a Puppy's ear to have picked this off from 1000 miles away!
Must be depressing for you SDM (ATM) to see your hero walking around in circles looking for answers to questions he's clueless about to begin with! If Key was so successful as a Currency Manipulator, maybe he can get our economy moving through endorsing National Stamp Collecting, or State House Sales like the last bunch of National Fuckwits did. Well now that Roger is back with Rodney the Hut maybe they can structure the remaining State Assets so they'll appear worthless, and make Labour look bad politically for investing in New Zealand infrastructure. At least Labour had a plan for a future we SHOULD be heading for instead of another bottom of the economic heap that National is so good at leading us to.
The Country needs someone who has a future vision, and is capable of actioning it! Someone who is capable of pulling our diverse economic forces together as a national team to support each others strengths in a crumbling international economic period. We have trade agreements in place with China, and much of the Asian and Middle East-Asian Continent already - let's continue to develop those. We have unique products and services to offer our trading partnerts. We have the potential of a strong INTERNAL economic growth rate as well, if we choose to turn inward to serve the NZ domestic markets instead of exporting all our prime products to Japan and broader markets that are showing increasing signs of a significant slow down.
Why isn't Mr. Key and his band of idiots focusing on creating incentives to keep our manufacturers and jobs on NZ Terra Firma instead of sending them to 3-rd world sweat shops, so they can turn a profit when the same goods are sent back to us in the form of imports that the general NZ populace receive no benefit from?
Wouldn't it make more sense to keep our local economy strong and protected, and re-balance our export markets? Protect our jobs at home instead of sending them somewhere else. Of course this would lead to an overall benefit for ALL new Zealanders instead of the TOP OF THE HEAP that won't get as rich as quickly as they want by Privatising the profits and Nationalising the debt like their kissing cousins in the US have managed to do.
Key just doesn't have a clue and nowhere to turn for any answers within his band of circle jerkers!
Time for a change - Yeah Right! It IS time for a change, but the horse that is supposedly leading the cart has a broken leg and doesn't have the prcessing power to light a 10 watt bulb!
We need a take charge leader who has vision and the strength to unite NZ and move us forward in strength and national pride. We didn't cause this global financial meltdown - why the hell should we just roll over and pee on our tummy's instead of showing the Kiwi Creativity we are renown for?
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