Mana and the polls

Going through the last round of polls people have been focused on the Nats beginning to wobble off their stupendous highs and David Shearer holding up - even advancing - against a formerly bullet-proof PM in the personal stakes. As my co-blogger has said this morning the news isn't all roses for Labour and between the two latest polls the results are mixed. But I want to focus on how Mana is doing.

Mana as a party of the left and as a party mainly of Maori are competing directly against the Maori Party in the Maori Electorates - and of course against them and the Greens, NZ First and Labour in the party vote. At this time in the electoral cycle party activism and membership is at something of a lull and the latest polls show that. Despite Hone Harawira's media storm over the Glenn Innes state housing relocation protests (and his arrest and court appearance on obstruction charges), Mana - with it's tiny resources - has struggled to maintain the 1.08% support it attained at the 2011 election.

The two polls: TV3's Reid Research poll does not have Hone Harawira (or the Green leaders for that matter, but bizarrely includes Jim Anderton and Don Brash!?) in the preferred PM stakes, so we can only use the party vote:

PARTY VOTE: Mana: 0.1% v. Maori Party 1.5%

Mana peeked in this poll at 1.3% in February and has been declining since. The Maori Party peeked at 1.5% at the time of the last election and has been relatively steady since  (but the 2.5% it was on before Harawira split to form Mana demonstrates the Maori Party have not been able to get those voters back - I suspect they have permanently lost about half of their original support, most of that to Mana)

TV One's Colmar Brunton poll was taken slightly later than the Reid poll and showed different trends:

PARTY VOTE: Mana: 1% v. Maori Party 2.2%

The numbers move around a bit, but both parties seem have kept their support up. As you go through the time series you will see that by and large there is a relationship between the two: if Mana is low then the Maori Party will be high and vice versa. This means there may be some movement of voters oscillating from one to the other, but as I said the Maori Party has shed a huge chunk to Mana and they won't get it back. The electorate vote displays the same relationship as the party vote but the figures are a bit higher as the two parties compete primarily in the electorates and not on the list vote. The total two party vote ranging from 2.8% - 4.3%. It is worth noting that in one of the polls (May) Mana scored more than the Maori Party.

On the leadership issue the Colmar Brunton has a good breakdown of preferred PM:

19-23 Nov 2011		24-28/03/2012		26-30/03/2012		28 Jul-1/082012		15-19/09/2012		27-31/10/2012
John Key	52%		48%		48%		45%		44%		42%
David Shearer	0.1%		11%		14%		13%		12%		11%
Winston Peters	3%		3%		2%		4%		4%		6%
Russel Norman	2%		1%		2%		2%		2%		3%
David Cunliffe	0.4%		1%		0.7%		0.6%		0.9%		1%
Helen Clark	0.5%		1%		1%		2%		1%		0.9%
Metiria Turei	0.7%		1%		0.4%		0.8%		1%		0.9%
Hone Harawira	1%		0.7%		1%		0.8%		0.2%		0.8%
Jacinda Ardern	-		0.2%		0.3%		0.5%		0.2%		0.5%
Colin Craig	0.4%		0.1%		0.2%		-		-		0.5%
Grant Robertson	-		-		-		0.4%		0.7%		0.5%
Pita Sharples	0.2%		1%		0.3%		0.6%		0.5%		0.5%
Phil Goff	15%		1%		1%		0.6%		0.9%		0.4%
Tariana Turia	0.4%		0.4%		0.2%		-		0.6%		0.4%
Bill English	0.2%		0.1%		0.3%		0.2%		0.4%		0.3%
John Banks	-		0.1%		0.1%		0.1%		0.1%		0.2%
Annette King	0.1%		-		0.1%		0.3%		0.1%		0.2%
Andrew Little	0.1%		-		-		-		0.2%		0.2%
Jim Anderton	-		-		0.1%		-		0.1%		0.1%
Peter Dunne	0.1%		-		-		-		0.2%		0.1%
Shane Jones	0.5%		0.1%		0.3%		0.1%		0.2%		0.1%
Steven Joyce	-		0.2%		0.4%		0.3%		0.3%		0.1%
Gerry Brownlee	-		-		-		-		0.2%		-
Rodney Hide	-		-		-		-		0.1%		-
Trevor Mallard	-		-		-		0.1%		-		-
Jeanette Fitzsimons	-		-		0.2%		-		-		-
Other	2%		3%		3%		2%		2%		3%
Don’t know	17%		22%		21%		22%		24%		22%
None	4%		3%		3%		3%		4%		4%
Refused	1%		1%		1%		1%		1%		1%
TOTAL	101%*		99%*		101%*		99%*		101%*		100%
Base (n=)	1,010		1,007		1,005		1,005		1,008		1,009

Hone Harawira has usually out-polled both the two Maori Party co-leaders for preferred PM this year. The ratings for opposition leader are not that bad either considering the support for his party:

"Who is the most effective opposition leader: Hone Harawira, Russel Norman, Winston Peters, David Shearer or Metiria Turei?"2 Total Eligible New Zealand Voters
Hone Harawira	6%
Russel Norman	18%
Winston Peters	24%
David Shearer	25%
Metiria Turei	5%
None of them	10%
Unsure	11%
TOTAL	99%
Base (n=)	1,009

Momentum at a grass roots membership level is difficult to maintain during the middle years of the term and I would not expect a major change in support during the next year unless something major happens to Harawira, inside Mana or to the Maori Party.