My guess as to what National will do with the MMP review is that they won't dump the coat tailing provision. It's the only part of MMP that benefits the right, National would prefer to have John Key passionately embrace Helen Kelly on the 6pm News than dump the only part of MMP that helps them.
ACT have exploited the sub 5% threshold so viciously it would make Ghengis Khan blush, to think National would kill that off seems to be politically naive in the extreme.
The problem however is that it looks terribly self serving, so National need to also announce a move that diverts attention.
How does National do that? Lower the threshold to 3%. Such a move would smother attention from the coat tailing rule while creating the pretense that National are being democratic.
Such a lowering of the threshold would benefit National significantly. The Conservatives would have a chance of entering Parliament and the new Rural Party launched this month should be on the phone with National Party HQ making this very argument to them.
It would cement NZ First into Parliament meaning there is always a way to negotiate Winston back into the fold making Labour more dependent to NZ First.
Keeping the coat tailing and lowering the threshold to 3% to divert attention from the first announcement while generating the perception of being more democratic while opening up future coalition partners would be a win, win, win for National.