- - - - - - - - - - - - -

Wednesday, May 09, 2012

Pollster Mafia decide on new spin job to con public

Pollsters meet to decide on code
Concerns that voter behaviour may have been influenced by inaccurate political polls before the past election have sparked calls for a code of practice for the industry and media reporting on them.

Well, well, well - what do we have here? All the little pollster maggots squirming because their deeply flawed polls are now perceived to have played a large roll in seeing so many citizens not participate in the last election.

God I love watching them squirm, especially their King, David Farrar. Shouldn't the key pollster for the Government be seen as one of their problems? All of their polls were wrong, the only one to predict the election was the show I hosted, the iPredict Election Show.

Why are pollsters like Farrar so dangerous to our democracy?

The 'spiral of silence' is a style of media theory that suggests constant propaganda that a party is in majority ends up desensitizes and intimidates a voter into not voicing opposition. The mainstream media spent 3 years telling NZers that John Key had over 50% using these flawed polls and that resulted in the lowest voter turn out in 120 years.

How flawed are these landline polls? When I hosted the iPredict election show we had the Roy Morgan representative on the show and as you can see, she had no answers to the criticisms that her landline polls use a methodology that bias the results.

How flawed is the landline methodology? As Brian Rudman pointed out...

The last household Census in 2006 highlights that the worst affected areas coincide with significant clusters of state housing.

The Pt England Census block topped the poll in Auckland with 105 households having no access to telecommunications systems of any sort. Close behind came Pukekohe North (99), Clendon South (93), Otahuhu West (87), Harania East (87), Papakura East (81), Otara East (78), and on goes the list through the lower socio-economic areas.

So the poor are left out of these polls leaving flawed results and entrenching the apathy that saw our democracy so weakened to its lowest participation in 2011.

These opinion polls manipulate public opinion, not represent it. The industry is desperately trying to reestablish their credibility now the iPredict market is here doing the job of predicting far better than the polling industry.

The recommendations should be...

1: Explanations of how limiting the landline methodology is before results are given.

2: Explanation of what the margin of error actually means before the results are given.

3: No opinion polls for the 6 weeks of the election.

4: The industry look to see how cell phone and internet could provide more accurate results.

When you have partisan pollsters like Farrar muddying the water for his beloved National Party, such inaccuracies are in their favor, thus there is no incentive to change the current system. Seeing as our democracy is suffering - the last voter turn out was the lowest in 120 years - the quality of our democracy should trump the 'rights' of pollsters to manipulate public opinion rather than acutely reflect it.

I have made a submission to the Justice and Electoral Committee on the 2011 election turn out, and will add my point that public opinion polls should be stopped for the 6 weeks of the election.



At 9/5/12 8:14 am, Blogger Chris Trotter said...

Just as a matter of interest, Bomber, did you receive an invitation to this seminar?

Given your consistent criticism of polling methodology over the past three years, and your involvement with the iPredict show, I would have thought you would have been high on their list of people to lead a discussion of what went wrong between 2008 and 2011.

My own contributions to the debate (which earned me insults from polling company defenders like Rob Salmond) would also, I would have thought, have secured me an invitation to this event - but, no,

If their most outspoken critics are not present at the event, one is, I think, permitted to question the organisers' sincerity vis-a-vis improving polling methodology in New Zealand.

At 9/5/12 8:28 am, Blogger Graeme Edgeler said...

I'm pretty sure everyone was invited:


At 9/5/12 9:13 am, Blogger Bomber said...

So Chris and I not being invited to David Farrar's party was just an over sight then was it Graeme?

At 9/5/12 9:31 am, Blogger Frank said...

No polling for 6 weeks?

Personally, I wouldn't shed a tear if that came to pass.

At the same time, the Left (Labour, Greens, Mana) must be more proactive in getting the voters out. Especially in lower socio-economic areas who might be feeling alienated and disenfranchised.

Next election, we all need to be doing more to go door knocking to remind folk to go out to vote - or suffer another three years of Dear Leader's Daddy State regime.

At 9/5/12 10:08 am, Blogger Graeme Edgeler said...

No, I'm saying you were invited. It's right there on his website. Come one come all. I took him up on the offer and you can too!

At 9/5/12 10:15 am, Blogger Bomber said...

Unfortunately I don't read kiwiblog. If I want to know what David Farrar thinks, I'd listen to ZB

At 9/5/12 11:43 am, Blogger Arto said...

The polls aren't worth shit.

Get rid of them.

At 9/5/12 11:45 am, Blogger Chris Trotter said...

I think you'll find, Graeme, that David is not the organiser of this event (although he may be a member of the host organisation that is) and that official invitations were sent out to individuals whose attendance the organisers were particularly keen to ensure.

Most seminars, held in the Legislative Council Chamber of Parliament, require an invitation slightly more formal than a "come one, come all" posted on a blog - no matter how popular.

How were those who missed David's cheery invitation supposed to know it was happening?

At 10/5/12 9:51 am, Blogger Phil said...

This tit for tit is indicative of what is wrong. Sounds like teenage girls. We are squabling over squabling. Ho hum.
I am more exercised in proving I am not a robot to post on this site on my smartphone. That process is a pain.

At 10/5/12 6:22 pm, Blogger CosmicRocketCultivator said...

Dude...the process of proving you are indeed a human is a simple exercise in working out if in fact you are paying attention and not just spouting. It works just fine.


Post a Comment

<< Home