Will Shearer go this weekend or next month?
The blood is in the water, and the odds are moving on iPredict, the Shearer experiment isn't working, not because of lackluster poll ratings, those landline polls are as flawed as ever, it's the absolute lack of strategic direction beyond stepping to the right and hoping for the best. The Pagani concoction of a tough welfare stance and distance from labour disputes isn't working. The distaste such tactics leave in the mouths of rank and file Labour Party voters suggests they won't tolerate the level of idealogical deviation some of Shearer's advisers have suggested without a mass exodus to the Greens.
Why the Labour Coven ever thought picking a leader gift wrapped for them by David Farrar was going to be a roaring success is above my pay scale, but the actions of the right of the Party in cementing Shearer into the leadership over Cunliffe has left them with no other options if push comes to shove.
The first ripple was Nash stepping down and with Grant Robertson's man, Alistair Cameron, lined up as the new Chief of Staff, the first step towards the inevitable is now forming.
So what's the possible line up? Grant Robertson as leader? Jacinda Ardern as Deputy? Cunliffe to Finance and Shearer to education?
The National Party has been in self mutilation mode since the year began, Shearer simply hasn't managed to maximize this because he's off roaming the Provinces endlessly navel gazing why Labour lost.
Conventional wisdom was that Labour would have waited until Feb next year to replace Shearer if the momentum still remained limp, but with the ascension of Alistair Cameron, that bbq could get fired up well before then. Shearer can still all bring this together if he showed the capability but the longer the tensions stand and the lack of momentum mounts, the more sure a leadership challenge will become.