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Friday, April 20, 2012

Will Shearer go this weekend or next month?

Phil Goff infamously once claimed to having a bbq with friends when speculation of a leadership coup against Helen Clark was rumored. Ever since that, Goff's bbq has become an ubiquitous symbol for Labour Party internal machinations. The growing question has been when would the bbq get lit on Shearer's leadership, the answer may be much sooner than later.

The blood is in the water, and the odds are moving on iPredict, the Shearer experiment isn't working, not because of lackluster poll ratings, those landline polls are as flawed as ever, it's the absolute lack of strategic direction beyond stepping to the right and hoping for the best. The Pagani concoction of a tough welfare stance and distance from labour disputes isn't working. The distaste such tactics leave in the mouths of rank and file Labour Party voters suggests they won't tolerate the level of idealogical deviation some of Shearer's advisers have suggested without a mass exodus to the Greens.

Why the Labour Coven ever thought picking a leader gift wrapped for them by David Farrar was going to be a roaring success is above my pay scale, but the actions of the right of the Party in cementing Shearer into the leadership over Cunliffe has left them with no other options if push comes to shove.

The first ripple was Nash stepping down and with Grant Robertson's man, Alistair Cameron, lined up as the new Chief of Staff, the first step towards the inevitable is now forming.

So what's the possible line up? Grant Robertson as leader? Jacinda Ardern as Deputy? Cunliffe to Finance and Shearer to education?

The National Party has been in self mutilation mode since the year began, Shearer simply hasn't managed to maximize this because he's off roaming the Provinces endlessly navel gazing why Labour lost.

Conventional wisdom was that Labour would have waited until Feb next year to replace Shearer if the momentum still remained limp, but with the ascension of Alistair Cameron, that bbq could get fired up well before then. Shearer can still all bring this together if he showed the capability but the longer the tensions stand and the lack of momentum mounts, the more sure a leadership challenge will become.

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17 Comments:

At 20/4/12 5:37 pm, Blogger Socio-humanistic-student said...

I don't think that David Shearer/Labour is really about Right or Left, we are about equality/equity, taking a stand for labourers... making a New Zealand that works for us. I think it is refreshing to have a leader who, rather than playing childish/political games by pointing at the failings of the tory government, is getting back in touch with our people and hearing there voices before making policy :)

 
At 20/4/12 5:37 pm, Blogger Socio-humanistic-student said...

I don't think that David Shearer/Labour is really about Right or Left, we are about equality/equity, taking a stand for labourers... making a New Zealand that works for us. I think it is refreshing to have a leader who, rather than playing childish/political games by pointing at the failings of the tory government, is getting back in touch with our people and hearing there voices before making policy.

 
At 20/4/12 5:38 pm, Blogger Socio-humanistic-student said...

Oops, Sorry Bomber, didn't realise it was sending each time!!!

 
At 20/4/12 7:12 pm, Blogger Tim said...

Agreed! As I once posted, the very idea of Labour shifting right is Shearer MADNESS!
By the time the elction rolls round, sleepy hibbits (or at least a growing number of them) will have woken up, realsing that Key/Joyce and others are bordering on the corrupt - or at the very least, in love with cronyism, neoliberalism and ideology (because they haven't got two original ideas to rub together). The along comes a Shearer right-shifted Labour.
National are incapable of learning. It seems some in Labour simply just don't want to learn.
It just frikken amazes me how someone like Shearer can be such an egg roll.
A shift right for Labour will be enough to effectively end the party as we know it (a bit like Queensland Labor).
By the time the next election rolls round (sooner than later one hopes) a big portion of the electorate will be wanting to unwind a huge amount of NACT's handiwork
(asset sales, FTA TV, economic policy.... you name it)

 
At 20/4/12 7:22 pm, Blogger Ovicula said...

Get rid of Shearer. Nact are full of warriors for their obscene class, the workers need more than a charity worker. In fact, get rid of most of Labour and build Mana. It's still class war even when only one side is fighting; it's time to fight back.

 
At 21/4/12 9:04 am, Blogger jane said...

It was nice to see David Shearer finally speaking about the shonkey sky city "deal" on tv news, although one can't help thinking that David Cunliffe would have been knawing at that bone of contention ages ago and snapping at the heels of all the other disgusting developments since october '11 like a good opposition leader should. Instead Mr Barmy from the UN has been learning how to knot his tie. How sad, any articulate bugger ( or buggeress) that could count would have been in with a grin.

 
At 22/4/12 9:49 am, Blogger countryboy said...

It might be worthwhile to remember who it is exactly that controls the MSM and therefore has control over how we , the Public , perceive any opposition to the jonky-stien sanctioned , Wide World Of Corporate Cuntiness . If Shearer were saying extraordinary and insightful things . If he were displaying a sparkling wit and a kind , common sense mixed with empathy , mixed with a respectful strength of integrity , how the fuck would we know ? Jonky-stien and his media cronies would cut anything Shearer has to say of any interest in to unintelligible ribbons . ' The Nation ' , Q & A , the 'news' generally ? Can they be relied upon to bring well researched , unbiased reportage TO YOU ! No , they clearly fucking can't be relied upon to do much other than be breathtakingly biased of any politician who fellatio corporate penis . We , us good , responsible , interested Kiwi voters and Tumeke followers have a Hell of a hard time researching and dissecting the quagmire that is our shambolic pot of political spaghetti much less those whom simply want to cringe in fear and pray for a lotto win .
Shearer should , in my humble view , flatten key-stien with a decent right jab and then see what might happen . That of course is an aging mans fantasy and that'll never happen but why should it not ? key is a creep . He's hurting the best of us and creating the worst of us and pimping out our lands and lifestyle . Any true opposition to that extreme environment should be met with extreme measures by opposition politicians should it not ? Otherwise they're little more than powerless windbags who'll get walked all over . Powerless windbags who allow themselves to be walked all over . Sounds like Labour to me . Call me old fashioned if you must .

 
At 22/4/12 5:58 pm, Blogger Julie said...

In simple terms, Shearer is a capable lieutenant, but never a general.

He isn't an inspirational leader, neither was Bill English or Phil Goff for that matter. Like it or hate it, Key is an effective leader and needs an adversary who can summon the troops into action!

 
At 23/4/12 11:12 am, Blogger DebsisDead said...

The current mob of bourgeois parasites who have infected the parliamentary labour party are incapable of finding half a leader from among the lot of them. This is simply because their naked self interest shines through at any time any of em are put under pressure.
Key seemed like a 'breath of fresh air' to the ninnies and 'living in hopes' because his lack of political nous made it appear that he wasn't motivated by self interest. Now he has been around for a while and everyone who wants to look can see deals being done that improve his 'blind' trust's portfolio at the expense of the rest of us.
(blind indeed the NZSX has so few stocks listed that anything which benefits the top 4 or 5 corporations must be good for any portfolio - blind or not. So far Key has done deals which favoured Telecom [fiber rollout cost tapayers 1bil and increased telecom shareholder value by >$3 billion], Fletcher [Primary contractor on ChristChurch rebuild] and Sky City [huge increase in proportion of slots run administered by SkyCity in Auckland as the sinking lid policy means an increase of 300 slots must cause a decrease of the same amount in pubs and clubs] what are the odds his assorted trusts have substantial shareholdings in all of those? close to certainty I would think)
So Key has become tainted by his greed and mendacity yet Labour struggles to find anyone who is perceived as being honest & who can walk and chew gum at the same time.

Hardly surprising given shonky Labour pre selection scams but I can't think of a single labour MP who is both astute enough to dominate the media and believed to be honest enough to get the support of voters.
That is why they picked Shearer but as we have discovered he fails the walking and chewing gum test, plus his move to the right brings his fundamental honesty into question. Next please!. . .
But there is no one next. The best we can hope for is Russell Norman to get found out so the greens select a co-leader who is less obviously self interested and that a green Mana coalition dominates dealings with Labour after the next election. Maybe the few extra seats Labour picks up then will bring in at least one new member who passes the basic kiwi voter sniff test.

That is some big hoping. Just getting rid of Russell Norman would be enough for me. That way I won't have to spoil my electorate MP ballot paper next election.

The Labour Party is history anyway I'd even wear a 3rd term for the nats if it meant those sleazy pretenders in labour were no more.
Sometimes it comes down to that. There is no point in voting for hypocrites whose best day is behaving Nat lite and worst day is somewhere over the other side of Act. If they have copped a scare outta the internal polling since whasshisname alerted the press gallery they were going right, and make announcements that they are in fact supportive of humanist policies, it won't mean anything if they get into govt.

We know their first instincts are conservative so they will spend their time in government doin as the Clark mob did. That is smashing anything progressive on their left esp the Greens & Mana while they sidle up the Nat's supporter list to try and poach a few big nat donors.

They will kiss and make up with what's left of the Maori Party before they would do a deal with Mana.

 
At 23/4/12 2:32 pm, Blogger James George said...

Shearer's fear of getting offside with pretty much anyone means he takes far to long to make a stand on any issue. Len Brown suffers the same paralysis. It's not so much I disagree with what Shearer says, it's that I don't really know most of the time what is is he's saying. He needs to be leading the oppositional narrative, even if it means losing support in some quarters. At the moment he's just coming across as empty of original thoughts or determination.

 
At 26/4/12 12:24 am, Blogger Socio-humanistic-student said...

The Labour party is and always be about equality, social justice, community, democracy and freedom. Nothing will change that. Labour is about giving ALL NEW ZEALANDERS a fair go. Regardless of the leader

 
At 26/4/12 6:03 am, Blogger Ovicula said...

1. Rogernomics
2. Ahmed Zouai
Explain those two in terms of equality, social justice, community, democracy and freedom please.

 
At 26/4/12 9:31 am, Blogger countryboy said...

@ socio-humanistic-student . I'm truly sorry about this but bullshit! What a load of blinkered , idealistic bullshit . Stick to selling second hand cars , pardon the assumption . I admit , it was over thirty years ago that the Labour Party excreted a vile hatching of traitors and liars who disassembled our society and created a seething underclass of lost souls while making themselves and their mates millions out of it but surely, you must be aware of what happened ? Labour and National are one and the same now . Do you not know this ? That's basically ' the problem ' . There's no check to the chaos the National Party are foisting on us . I look at Shearer and I see a cold . weak cup of tea on a drizzling Sunday afternoon , why is that ? I look at key and I see a demon and I'm about as far from being anything organized-religion one could find . Why is that ? Perhaps I need help ? Is there anyone out there who could pay for a holiday to Paris for spring ? Anyone ? Roger Douglas ? Geoffrey Palmer , Mike Moore ? Etc Etc ? You have my fucking money you pompous , dodgy bastards ! Give it back !

 
At 26/4/12 6:34 pm, Blogger Socio-humanistic-student said...

For goodness sakes, we (Mana, Green, Labour) are all here for the same, main purpose, the enrichment of the PEOPLE of Aotearoa. The left should not be fighting amongst themselves, we should stand together against the Fascists and Croneys that are ruining our country! We may all have different particular methods of approach (and let's face it, no party is unblemished) but the NACT party are not having to spend time tyring to destroy the political left, we do it to ourselves! And in the meantime, OUR people are being adversely affected by potential asset sales, hacking of TIA, 90 day law, polytechnic amendment bill, VSM... ISSUES THAT WE ALL CARE ABOUT!!!

 
At 26/4/12 6:42 pm, Blogger Socio-humanistic-student said...

@Country Boy... Absolutely I take offence, all be it for me to underestimate the value of anyone's labour, but I am a student nurse and I spend my time studying and doing practicum, trying to make a difference under the current tory government. I see the disparities in education and health statistics between Tauiwi and Tangata Whenua and it ain't pretty, I have fought for people who haven't been able to afford their meds that they so desperately need to survive. I see the effects of education on health literacy and how it can lead to poor management of health. I see good, hard working people who get 3rd world diseases because they can't afford to heat their homes (let-alone rent one) and are affected by overcrowding and appalling living conditions. I also see ambulatory sensitive hospitalisations on a day to day basis (costing on average 5x more than a community subsidy would).

So how dare you infer that I am ignorant or that I would waste my time with a party that was anthing but sensible and for the people of our country

 
At 26/4/12 6:49 pm, Blogger Socio-humanistic-student said...

@Ovicula, Rogernomics... interestingly, Roger Douglas then went to ACT. Labour party have since fought his private member's bill (VSM).

 
At 3/5/12 9:10 am, Blogger countryboy said...

@ Socio-Humanistic-student .
You take offense you say . So you should . I warned you in advance . Which is more than the neo-deviant Labour Party did when it's minions created the very environment you take such pride in working to protect us from . I find your tub-thumping adoration for a cork screw shaped political party offensive but what's perhaps more offensive is that you think that I could possibly take your drivel seriously . ( Ironic , yes , I know )
A human male once told me that if I were having trouble understanding a complex ' thing ' I should try stepping back from it and viewing it as a whole instead of trying to fathom it out by studying it's intimate parts . Try that theory with the Labour Party . Go on . Now , what do you see ? OK . Now , compare the Labour Party to the National Party . See ! Do you see that ! There's NO FUCKING DIFFERENCE ! If there were a difference , we'd see change ! We'd see Key brawling with Shearer on National television the way real men driven by their convictions would . Not politely sniffing around each other while us lot are , yet again , being drawn down into a dark ally to be eaten alive by Banksters and Insurance Scum who design our lives to benefit them . Have you heard any one in the Labour Party say anything like that ? And I would argue that most thinkers , certainly those who follow Tumeke would agree , that , that's the way it is baby . David Shearer needs to get Old School if he's to attract the interest of the vast numbers of anesthatized NZ'ers who didn't vote . He needs to roll his sleeves up and get real dirty in an honest , credible and honourable way ..... Yeah right !

 

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