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Monday, April 02, 2012

Mainstream media start brainfart landline polls early

TVNZ's bullshit brainfart telephone polls that didn't predict the election say John Key is more popular than ever in their latest results. The constant drum beat of 'Key has over 50%' was a mainstream media concocted delusion (Roy Morgan was trying to claim National had 56% in the last week of the election). Seeing as the only news show that called the election right for Labour, National, Greens and NZ First was the one i hosted, allow me to point out once again that the numbing impact of TVNZ constantly mouthing 'everyone loves John Key' is as corrupt as the methodology of landline polls that have lower representation in the homes of the poor who can't afford landlines.

Here's a point Rudman made over what a farce making state tenants use 0800 numbers was...

The last household Census in 2006 highlights that the worst affected areas coincide with significant clusters of state housing.

The Pt England Census block topped the poll in Auckland with 105 households having no access to telecommunications systems of any sort. Close behind came Pukekohe North (99), Clendon South (93), Otahuhu West (87), Harania East (87), Papakura East (81), Otara East (78), and on goes the list through the lower socio-economic areas.

Among these people will be Housing New Zealand's 200,000 tenants, now expected to dial 0800 and ask for help in an emergency. Without a phone of their own, where are they supposed to do that? The public phone box is a rare sight these days, and the chances are, if one is working, it will need a money card to work. If you don't have a phone, what are the chances of having a bank card?

...which strengthens the contention I have always argued that telephone landline polls don't measure the political opinion of the poor and over represent the opinion of the wealthy.

Other than bolstering National, this brainwashing to suggest Key is invincible saw the lowest voter turn out in 120 years last election. It is the mainstream media's constant spin that Key is more popular than ever before that fuels apathy.

These polls have little to do with reflecting public opinion and everything to do with manipulating public opinion.



At 2/4/12 12:52 pm, Blogger Frank said...

Even Colmar Brunton's own figures don't add up, if taken from November 10;

On 10 November 2011, a pre-election Colmar Brunton poll gave us these following results,

National: 54%

Labour: 28%

Greens: 11%

NZ First: 2.9%

A week later, on 18 November, Colmar Brunton published these pre-election poll results,

National: 53%

Labour: 26%

Greens: 13%

NZ First: 2.0%

The Election Results, on 26 November, painted a somewhat different picture,

National: 47.31%

Labour: 27.48%

Greens: 11.6%

NZ First: 6.59%

National’s polling on election day was nowhere as high as Colmar Brunton’s previous, far-fetched results. (Though Labour and The Green’s results were reasonably close to previous polling, Colmar Brunton had totally under-estimated NZ first’s voter support.)

In which case, Colmar Brunton’s current poll results today (1 April) – which seem to be a rehash of last year’s skewed figures – should be viewed with considerable suspicion,

National: 51%

Labour: 29%

Greens: 11%

NZ First: 3%

What Colmar Brunton’s figure’s do show, is that National’s support is dropping; 54% to 53% to 51% in the polls. That’s a 3 percentage-point from drop from 10 November 2011 to 1 April 2012.

Apply that same 3 percentage point drop to National’s Election Day electoral results and you get 47.31% to 44.31%.


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