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Tuesday, April 10, 2012

The Greens and THAT Roy Morgan Poll spell what for Shearer?

Greens see a surge in political poll
The Green Party has hit a record high 17 per cent support and National have taken a big hit in a new political poll released today.

The Roy Morgan survey shows National down 4.5 per cent to 44 per cent since the previous polling period that ended on March 11 - virtually a straight switch of support with the Greens who were up 4.5.

But there is little good news for Labour, which was up a marginal 0.5 percentage points at 30.5 per cent.

The poll contrasts with last week's One News survey that had National solid on 51 per cent.

The One News survey that claims National are over 51% is part of a 'spiral of silence' style media propaganda that desensitizes and intimidates a voter into not voicing opposition. The landline polls that don't poll poor people without landlines, gives lop sided results that end up manipulating public opinion, not reflecting it, that was seen in the last election when 3 years of media telling people Key had over 50% support resulted in one of the lowest voter turn outs in 120 years.

All of that said, the Roy Morgan Poll is significant, why?

The Roy Morgan Poll is still very biased, in the week of the election they had National on an eye watering 56%, their flawed land line poll methodology was an issue I took to Roy Morgans american spokesperson, Michele Levine, on the iPredict Election show last year. You can see her answers weren't that convincing and the iPredict show ended up calling the election for National, Labour, NZ First and the Greens closer than any other news agency in NZ.

What can be taken from the Roy Morgan poll however is that even when you take their landline bias into account, the Greens are doing well.

As Labour start to move center right, the Greens are quickly picking up disaffected voters who probably didn't vote in the last election. The challenge for the Greens and MANA is to reach out to those million enrolled voters who were so uninspired last year that they didn't even bother to vote. The Greens have strategically understood the move to the right that Labour are conducting and have appointed left wing political strategist Laila Harre to the Party to maximize the political room that Labour have ceded.

National were benign in their first term but the second term was when the austerity policy and privatization agenda kicked in. The public liked Key when he was smiley and wavy, they won't warm to him when he is slashy and burny to services they need.

In any 2014 alternative Government, Labour will have to agree to a green cabinet with multiple Green MP Ministers. The idea of a genuinely left Government with Labour, the Greens and MANA makes the time till 2014 seem less painful.



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