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Monday, March 19, 2012

The tactics behind Shearer's speech: Building the progressive majority

Political blogger: 'Labour driving me away'

Labour stalwart Brian Edwards says the party's move to the political centre, which was further hinted at in new leader David Shearer's speech last week, is driving him away from the party and into the arms of the Greens.

In my opinion, the tactics behind Shearer's move to the centre represents the first strategic understanding of the mechanics of MMP Labour have ever exhibited and Brian Edward's response is the exact sort of thing Labour tacticians would hope for.

The upper middle class audience Shearer pitched to were as important as the faint dog whistles Pagani built into his speech. Shearer has a long way to move core Labour to the centre and his upcoming speeches trying to re-oriantate Labour's perception to being National lite will require much louder dog whistles.

Labour will aim at an Orewa speech in Ponsonby, and by publicly denying any belief in 'gotcha' politics, Shearer side steps the predictable outcry of him playing 'gotcha' politics these up coming speeches will generate.

The challenge for the left as Labour concedes to a smaller party strategy by moving to the center, is how the other two party's on the left respond. MANA and the Greens now have real movement to expand their voter base, and the challenge for them is to chase that left vote effectively.

The left have to wise up to MMP and start building the progressive majority of Labour, the Greens and MANA. The brutal math of Parliament was the reason I first argued for the formation of a political party to the left of the Greens using Hone's electorate seat, and the left is going to have to accept Labour's move to the center as a means of winning that brutal math equation.

The Greens have to have respect from Labour post any 2014 election with real gains in Cabinet and MANA should be given more freedom to move in the Maori electorates against the Maori Party.

David Shearer can go as far to the center as he likes, as long as he has strong allies like the Greens and MANA to drag him all the way back to the left once elected to create NZ's first truly left wing Government.

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6 Comments:

At 19/3/12 10:45 am, Blogger shreddakj said...

I think you're absolutely correct on this. It's a necessary evil because of those swing-voting moderates.

 
At 19/3/12 11:12 am, Blogger Tragik said...

I agree that this makes some strategic sense.

The devil, of course, is in how left (or right) the legislative actions of a Labour led government actually turn out to be.

A centre(ish) Labour is OK only if there is a strong and influential group to the left of them.

 
At 19/3/12 3:32 pm, Blogger Paul said...

Like BE, any move towards 'the Centre' (i.e. a right-leaning move) will prove to be yet another blunder.
Why do these cnuts think many long term Labour stalwarts couldn't be bothered last election ffs!?

Friends and former supporters alike are justified in the expression "I didn't leave Labour, Labour left me".
Are they REALLY about to embark on another gargantuan cockup?

Why are Labour voters pissed off?
They were betrayed in the 80's by all that neo-lib agenda and have only recently been partly forgiven for it.
Why does Shearer think that a centre move is necessary to counter the NACTs? especially given the HUGE no-turnout last election?
Jesus H Christ! Are they REALLY that stupid.
I guess they are. Looks like Shearer may prove to be NACTs best friend! Which DICKHEAD is advising these buggers?
What surprises me most is that Robertson et al may very well go along with it.
If so - Fuck 'em - and what's more.... Fuck 'em forever. If the Greens are going to be the ones that represent trad Labour values (which are actually increasingly relevant in a world where the past neo-lib/neo con bullshit economic policies have PROVEN NOT to work), time for me (and relatives, and colleagues, and long term Labour Party loyal-to-the-core supporters) ditched them en masse.
And IF and WHEN they come grovelling to the Greens at the next election - it may be well worth telling em to get fcked eve IF we suffer an additional 3 years of pain so they actually begin to "get it".
Labour always did have a habit of shooting itself in the foot from time to time - looks like they've graduated and now just shoot themselves in the heart.

 
At 19/3/12 4:30 pm, Blogger Frank said...

"David Shearer can go as far to the center as he likes, as long as he has strong allies like the Greens and MANA to drag him all the way back to the left once elected to create NZ's first truly left wing Government. "

Got it in one!!

Labour can be centrist till the cows come home. But as long as Mana and Green are there to pull Labour to the left - mission accomplished. (Much like Banks "pulled" National to the Right. Or, more realistically, National used Banks as a reason to lurch to the Right. Convenient.)

 
At 19/3/12 6:25 pm, Blogger peterquixote said...

"Labour stalwart Brian Edwards says the party's move to the political centre, which was further hinted at in new leader David Shearer's speech last week, is driving him away from the party and into the arms of the Greens."

Can we just get rid of Edwards once and for all, he is old and Iri.h and stu.id,.
The centre is where it is at. And after so many boring years of Rod Donald Green is getting real.

 
At 20/3/12 10:21 pm, Blogger Phil said...

The centre is where its at, indeed, but don't forget that the centre is constantly moving and the politicians know this. The pollies are trying to 2nd guess us. Think about it.

 

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