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Tuesday, January 31, 2012

BREAKING NEWS - Maori Party threaten to walk out of Government

As I broke yesterday on Tumeke, the removing of section 9 from SOE Act had all the potential of a massive shift in the political landscape. In the wake of the unpopular decision to sell productive farm land off to a regime that arrests bloggers, artists and Christians worshipping Easter (and had the audacity to claim resistance to China is racist), National are once again promoting deeply unpopular legislation in the form of asset sales and because they haven't dotted the I's and crossed the T's, they have tripped up.

Removing Section 9 that forces the Government to take into account the principles of the Treaty is simply a compromise too far for the Maori Party, because The Maori Party are no longer the political party for Maori, they are the political party for wealthy Maori. The corporate Iwi who sponsor them can not tolerate their possible slice of any asset sale waltzing off as easily as Crafar farms have to Beijing. Without any possible gain for their corporate Iwi sponsors, the Maori Party can not afford to continue to back policy as deeply unpopular as asset sales.

The problem for the Maori Party is that they are in desperate decline, their percentage of the vote in the Maori electorates has been shattered and the leadership are effectively retired. Flavel had his 7000 majority slashed in Waiariki to 1800 and MANA won 800 fewer party votes than the Maori Party in this once formidable Maori Party electorate. MANA was able to dent the Maori Party with only 3 months organization, give MANA 3 years and a continuing decline in economic performance, and the Maori Party will become a political footnote for 2014.

The damage of tactically deciding to stay at the table taking John Key's crumbs while having to swallow dead rat after dead rat has taken it's toll, and to stay at the table as Key strips Section 9 from the SOE Act is political suicide. The Maori Party have no choice but to walk and end Key's political camouflage. This political relationship was always designed to make National look far less extreme than they really are, with the pretense stripped away (if the Maori Party walk), Key will either be held hostage by the hard right of his Cabinet or actively try to find wider compromise if he wants that third term.

Will the Maori Party walk? iPredict seem to think so.



At 31/1/12 3:14 pm, Blogger Ben Wilson said...

If I'm reading your subtext right, then actually, this isn't going to stop anything, it's just a bargaining chip by the Maori Party, who are negotiating to get something out of the deal for corporate Iwi? In reality, when offered, say, 1% of a 10 billion dollar deal, they'll sign anything they're asked to?

I hope not, but we will see. That might not even be the end of the Maori Party - 100 million is peanuts in the big picture, but it's a shitload more than I'm going to get out of the asset sales, so it's smart money in one way, some of it might even end up helping Maori.

At 31/1/12 3:29 pm, Blogger Jason said...

"actively try to find wider compromise if he wants that third term"

Thing is, does he want a third term? Personally I thnk he will bail after 14 to 18 months and allow the completion of the rest of the sell off agenda with his successor, whoever that may be.

At 31/1/12 4:01 pm, Blogger Tim said...

The Maori Party NEED to walk even IF just on the basis that the Nats were prepared to try something like this on. But then they were prepared to lay down with dogs (driven by habit and animal cunning rather than logic in the first place, so iPredict shouldn't hold its breathe. "Once were Principled" (Now have AMEX Gold).
Treats and Trinkets, cargo cults, caring and sharing - Yea Right!
Pita and Turia - and principle? Oxymoron!
Just look at the record in declining stats for Maori over the past few years then try telling me there's been progress.
They had opportunity - they fucked up.

At 31/1/12 4:10 pm, Blogger Tim said...

All my mates and family are trying their best to ascertain just when it was that Pita lost the plot.
We know when Turia did - it was when she began her bitch session with Helen. We can only assume that the loyal Pita was tied to her apron strings at the time.
Go back sometime and checkout some of Turia's "brilliant moments" - such as to do with welfare dependancy etc. They're not too distant from the Minstress of Welfare in her leopardskin suit - her that took advantage off every welfare benefit and rort going that's now fallen in love with austeriry.
And as I watch TV1 now....Pita is koreroing for is life on Tika Reare!
FFS! Give it up! The credibiity has gone. It went 3 years hence

At 31/1/12 11:59 pm, Blogger Marty Mars said...

The Māori Party won't walk out and the spin about consulting with Māori is the same bullshit used when they consulted about the foreshore and seabed legislation - which they then ignored

At 1/2/12 7:34 am, Blogger Bomber said...

GRIN - Oh Candid, I hope you read Tumeke everyday, I really want you to hear about my new project first. Seeing as I am so deep under your skin, it will really cause you to choke.

At 1/2/12 10:30 am, Blogger countryboy said...

Ha ! God ! I love this stuff . I really do enjoy seeing political turmoil . When crooks fall out huh ? We should take heart because it shows there's life in the old boy/girl yet . ( Democracy ) Pita , Turia , Slimy Key , et al . They're small change . Who's really going to be flushed out of the wood pile I wonder ? Who's really brokering these seemingly idiotic asset sales ? What's the creepy Fay connection really about ? He couldn't give a big crap for our country or it's people so why the faux interest in the Crafar fiasco ? He was after all one of the architects of NZ's plummeting standard of living and accelerating cost of living but didn't he do well for himself ? As for the Treaty issue ? I reckon there's a devious plot to get to it with a rubber and scrub out the irritations of it's audaciousness to get in the way of the off shore freak show that is Spare Change Investors . key and his cronies are just little pricks making a few bob if this deal goes through . The Chinese Uber riche and others will be able to get their flat feet on our land without having to apply themselves and we become a third world slave class to them . It's all about colonization and empire building and this Maori Party / National party / Little squeaky Green Party/ Crafar Farm thing is not much more than scratchings at the pantry door . Buckingham Palace ? Royal Commission of Enquiry please ? ( Yeah , I know . Sounds nuts but think about it . )


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