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Monday, December 12, 2011

Specials: Mana more popular than Act


The PM has just announced the Cabinet and ministerial positions. I'll blog on those later, but firstly here's the NZ General Election official results with specials counted:

MMP referendum:

KEEP 1,267,955 (57.77%)
CHANGE 926,819 (42.23%)


I picked it could get to 60% for MMP, but that was always going to be on the high side. 58% is quite a strong mandate however - can't see it being revisited in a referendum for at least another two decades. The changes and the review process will see people far more engaged than the referendum non-debate.

Party Vote:

Party : total votes : (% of party vote) : electorates+list=total seats

National Party 1,058,638 (47.31%) 41+18=59
Labour Party 614,936 (27.48%) 23+11=34
Green Party 247,370 (11.06%) 0+14=14
New Zealand First Party 147,544 (6.59%) 0+8=8
Māori Party 31,982 (1.43%) 3+0=3
Mana 24,168 (1.08%) 1+0=1
ACT New Zealand 23,889 (1.07%) 1+0=1
United Future 13,443 (0.60%) 1+0=1
Conservative Party 59,236 (2.65%) 0+0=0
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 11,738 (0.52%) 0+0=0
Democrats for Social Credit 1,714 (0.08%) 0+0=0
Libertarianz 1,595 (0.07%) 0+0=0
Alliance 1,209 (0.05%) 0+0=0
TOTAL seats 70+51=121


I had hoped Mana could get to 3%, but no, I'll just have to be satisfied that - after specials - Mana has more party votes than Act. When Peter Dunne and John Banks criticise Hone during this term of parliament just keep in mind his party got more votes than either of their parties did. Not much solace, but something.

As expected the National vote dropped on specials - now 47.3% and less spectacular than all the pre-election crowing and false indications from the opinion polls. My prediction a month before the election that National would get 46% (+/- 1%) was not too far wide of the mark.

Greens cracked 11%! And now a caucus of 14. Got my Mojo workin' ! (I prefer the Jimmy Smith version but there's no video for it)

The constituencies had some dramatic changes. Duncan Garner's embarrassing call on TV3 election night coverage that he projected that Paula Bennett would lose her seat are now vindicated, Sepuloni having reversed a 300+ in favour of Bennett. 11 votes, phew - judicial recount will be underway this week. And in CHristchurch Central although the Labour candidate will have many excuses it seems to me that being an upper-middle class carpet-bagger
would have more to do with losing a safe Labour seat than anything to do with the earthquake.
Status of electorates:

Waitakere 100.0%: SEPULONI, Carmel (LAB) BENNETT, Paula (NAT) 11

Christchurch Central 100.0% WAGNER, Nicky (NAT) BURNS, Brendon (LAB) 45

And in Waiariki Te Ururoa hung on with about the same margin as on the night, his majority over Annette Sykes 1,883. Slashed!

3 Comments:

At 12/12/11 6:07 pm, Blogger jane said...

I support the Green party initiative to examine why voter turnout and disillusionment is so low. Some things are obvious, (RWC hangover, general hangover, transience, illiteracy,etc)but disenfranchisement may be a symptom of the malaise caused by a wealth gap which adorns this country, now the biggest in the OECD

 
At 13/12/11 4:18 pm, Blogger Frank said...

A couple of points;

1. National, ACT, and other right wingers don'r care about voter turn-out. They're fully aware that Nat/ACT supporters always vote; those people recognise the power of the vote.

Those who tend not to vote are those on the left; the margenalised; the poor and dispossed.

There is no 'profit' in Nat/ACT motivating those people to vote 'cos they won't be Nat/ACT supporters.

2. The Labour candidate in ChCh Central blamed a loss of Labour voters for his defeat.

Yet, a "Rosetta Stone" of MMP returns for that electrorate has support for retaining MMP at 62.5%.

National seats tend to favour Change, or very narrowly support MMP, within a 1-4% margin.

Christchurch central has strong support for MMP - indicating that voters wrere not true-blue Nat supporters.

As per my analysis here; http://fmacskasy.wordpress.com/2011/12/13/some-thoughts-on-mmp/

 
At 14/12/11 2:38 pm, Blogger Frank said...

"MMP referendum:

KEEP 1,267,955 (57.77%)
CHANGE 926,819 (42.23%)

I picked it could get to 60% for MMP, but that was always going to be on the high side. 58% is quite a strong mandate however - can't see it being revisited in a referendum for at least another two decades. "

If there is to be another Referendum sometime in the far distant future (I'm picking when talking Apes rule the planet, and are chasing Charlton Heston's arse all over a barren, nuked, countryside) - I hope it's Jordan Williams who runs the anti-MMP campaign.

His "Vote for Change" was the most amateurish thing I've seen for a very, very, very, long time...

 

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