Te Karere's poll out:
The Te Karere DigiPoll had Flavell on 56 per cent with Mana's Annette Sykes and Lois Te Kani both on 22 per cent.
The Maori Party was also ahead in the party vote with 40 per cent.
Labour was on 28 per cent, Mana 15 and National nine. New Zealand First were on 5 per cent and the Greens were well below on 3 per cent.
The results will be a blow to Mana who were expecting Sykes to do well and bring in a second seat on top of leader Hone Harawira's Tai Tokerau electorate.
The polling is out anyway and in the Maori electorates even more so (especially since this poll was done so long ago it captures a moment whe Annette's momentum was beginning to show), so it isn't a "blow" to Mana - that sort of a result was expected. Te Ururoa - and the Maori Party - are bereft and it shows and people know it and that's why they won't vote for him - or his party. The landline-based polling skews to a more conservative group, so there's no way he is as high as that.
Te Kani performed badly in the Maori TV debate last week - and Te Ururoa was full of excuses - while Annette was strong, so things are going well. On the ground the Mana teams are all over the electorate while the Maori Party doesn't seem to have anyone out there. Hone has made several forays into the electorate and is greeted with enthusiastic crowds wherever he appears. Knowledge of Hone and Mana are quite high from what I have observed of people talking about the election. Annette has many connections through her law firm throughout the district and feedback is positive. The poll doesn't reflect the feeling here. It will be a hard slog, but I still expect Annette will take the seat.