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Saturday, November 26, 2011

NZ General Elections: results

Just back from scrutineering at a local polling booth in Waiariki and it's close between all three candidates. This is nail-biting. Also noted a lot of NZ First votes.

TV3 reporting @38% counted:
Nat 49%
Lab 25%
Greens 10.5%
NZFirst 6.8%
Conservative 2.3%
Maori 1.3%
Act 1%
Mana 0.9%


Official advance voting:
National Party 139,222 49.65%
Labour Party 74,255 26.48%
Green Party 28,164 10.04%
New Zealand First Party 19,235 6.86%
Māori Party 3,427 1.22%
ACT New Zealand 3,223 1.15%
Mana 2,929 1.04%
United Future 1,746 0.62%
Conservative Party 6,801 2.43%
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 891 0.32%
Democrats for Social Credit 203 0.07%
Alliance 182 0.06%

This is great news for Winston at almost 7%. The Conservatives are polling very high - I noticed a few at the booth I was on and was surprised. The Greens on 10% is massive for them, but Labour will be disheartened with 26.5%. The Nats at almost 50% is astounding however, and I'm a bit shocked it is that high. These are early votes that were counted this afternoon and give a good lead on what will happen later tonight.

9:20pm: Official:
National Party 538,620 49.19%
Labour Party 285,176 26.04%
Green Party 115,062 10.51%
New Zealand First Party 74,646 6.82%
Māori Party 14,182 1.30%
ACT New Zealand 12,035 1.10%
Mana 10,146 0.93%
United Future 7,061 0.64%
Conservative Party 30,552 2.79%

Seats to watch - Electorate status official: (electorate, booths in% and margin)

Epsom 29.8% BANKS, John (ACT) GOLDSMITH, Paul (NAT) 574

Ōhariu 48.1% DUNNE, Peter (UFNZ) CHAUVEL, Charles (LAB) 1,160

Waiariki 62.5% FLAVELL, Te Ururoa James (MAOR) SYKES, Annette Te Imaima (MANA) 1,019

Tāmaki Makaurau 43.4% SHARPLES, Pita (MAOR) JONES, Shane (LAB) 294

Auckland Central 60.0% KAYE, Nikki (NAT) ARDERN, Jacinda (LAB) 329

New Plymouth 87.0% YOUNG, Jonathan (NAT) LITTLE, Andrew (LAB) 3,933

Waitakere 44.2% BENNETT, Paula (NAT) SEPULONI, Carmel (LAB) 293

Waimakariri 79.6% WILKINSON, Kate (NAT) COSGROVE, Clayton (LAB) 172

Winston arrives at his party celebration in Takapuna. Thanking his party."Help is on it's way - and tonight it arrived!" He's happy, jubilant. It's a remarkable achievement and looks well over 5%.

Looking bad for Annette I'm afraid. It's difficult to do this, having put in so much work myself, but I have to project a hold for Te Ururoa on Waiariki. This is not as expected. I'm disappointed because he doesn't deserve it and Annette certainly does.

TV3: Tariana on now talking about Maori Party losing Te Tai Tonga. She's not backing down on voting with National. She says a post-election meeting of the party may say go into opposition.

TV3 projecting Paula Bennett has lost Waitakere - it has gone to Labour. This is an upset. A real slap in the face to her.

Green co-leaders on K' Rd, Auckland being interviewed. They are beaming - smiles a mile wide. 10%+ is a great feat. maybe 13 seats in the House.

But of course what I can't bring myself to mention is that the Nats are returned to government and will take it as a mandate to start their asset sales and welfare crack-down (which passes for economic policy).

John Banks on TV3 being interviewed. Thanking Act on Campus. Bagging Winston. "Cup of tea was worthwhile wasn't it." Yeah - whatever, what did you two say anyway?

As the big South Auckland booths come in at the end the National vote goes down and the Left comes up - that is what we are seeing now:
National Party 920,978 48.31%
Labour Party 512,266 26.87%
Green Party 201,923 10.59%
New Zealand First Party 129,623 6.80%
Māori Party 25,271 1.33%
ACT New Zealand 20,575 1.08%
Mana 18,611 0.98%
United Future 11,679 0.61%
Conservative Party 52,822 2.77%

Looks like Bennett will hold Waitakere.

Brash addresses meeting. At 1.08% for Act it means Brash won't will be back and it will only be Banks. So there was no point in Epsom voting for him anyway. Pathetic really. Says leadership not in his hands. Says he will resign. Fuck off, Don.

I said Mana will get more than Act and it may do if the remaining Auckland booths come in. I'm not sure enough to get Annette Sykes in though - and that will be gutting.

Goff arrives at Labour do.

Big booths having an impact now as Nats down and labour up:
National Party 951,882 48.06%
Labour Party 536,227 27.08%
Green Party 209,755 10.59%
New Zealand First Party 134,724 6.80%
Māori Party 26,939 1.36%
ACT New Zealand 21,329 1.08%
Mana 19,427 0.98%
United Future 12,106 0.61%
Conservative Party 54,728 2.76%

Maori party vote was halved - due to Mana mostly - but I don't see evidence that Mana has picked up the support from beyond that constituency.

Goff speaking: congratulates Tirikatene-Sullivan on winning Te Tai Tonga. Damien O'Conner has won. "A bit bloodied, but not defeated." Saying "I've made a decision" and will be going to caucus. Which means he'll be stepping down.

Brash. He's even more irrelevant now.

Where's that smug prick Key?


At 26/11/11 10:26 pm, Blogger Dr Syn said...

GODDAMN IT NEW ZEALAND, why do you do this?

At 27/11/11 1:14 am, Blogger stu said...

As a leftie, i actually hate to say it bomber, but u were wrong.

At 27/11/11 10:24 am, Blogger Fern said...

I'm not surprised that the brand new Conservative party got so many party votes. They flooded the country's letter-boxes with well-written, well-produced pamphlets pitched at the middle-aged and older voter. Personally, this just made me suspicious of them (who are they really, and who's funding them?) but I can see their appeal.


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