Nat/Lab
John Minto has come out with a vitriolic attack on Phil Goff today. Or just stated a few facts - another way of putting it.
And even as Labour tries to distinguish itself by shuffling a little to the left of National its attacks are blunted because it's hopelessly compromised at every turn and the problem is personified in Labour leader Phil Goff.
When Goff attacks the rise in GST, the ghost of Goff reminds us it was the man himself who introduced GST at 10% in the first place and then increased it to 12.5% back in the 1980s. It was also Goff who brought in tertiary student fees and again it was Goff who sat at the Labour cabinet while it sold our key state assets for a song to the rich mates of senior Labour politicians of the time. We've been paying the price ever since.
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My prediction for this election is a comprehensive win to National. Labour will dump Goff in the new year and shift significantly to the left as it tries to reposition itself as the party of the 99% rather that the party which has done more than National in the past 27 years to enrich the 1%.
But the real problem Labour faces is not defeat in this election but finding anyone in their new caucus who has an economic backbone rather than a corporate-moulded artificial brace.
If Labour collapses - and I define that as less than 30% - then Mana could gain a few extra seats, so Minto would say that in a tactical way - regardless of the historical truth of what he says (and he's right too). I'm not sure Labour will collapse though.
Any bleed from Labour in a collapse (down to a possible low of 20% as the disasterous English/Boag campaign of National in 2002) will probably go:
40% Green
20% Mana
15% National
15% NZ First
10% others
So if Labour slips uder 30% @28% it would be one extra seat to the Greens, @26% an extra seat to Mana and another one to the Greens. But I don't know the electorate is that Goffphobic to go below 28%. As I forecast earlier I'm expecting about 32% for Labour +/- 1%.
As for Minto's appeal to the Nat/Lab Tweedledum/Tweedledee cynics he makes a good case.
posted by Tim Selwyn @ 4:14 pm
17 comments
17 Comments:
I can understand John's (Minto) stance. Trouble is that John might consider the possiblity that Phylis Goff (despite that pathetic image) may well have had an epithany. He certainly has a reason to - from the death of close relatives in Afganistan, to the realisation that the right of right of the 1980's (student laons et al) Labour 'movement' just hasn't worked... Goff has the ultimate reason to epithanise.
Let's just agree that 1980's LABOUR has passed like a try-hard turd on its way to a Moa Point refining station where National's 'Treasures' and Act's fanny pads regularly clog the cistern, I mean system!
He (Goff) better had - it might bode well for him when it all comes time to hang 'em up to leave dangling.
What pisses me off is that the Hobbits that weren't sleeping could actually have got together to conquer this bugger's muddle of a gubbamint. Their lack of will and self-interest that has prevented them from doing so just means that a few more assets, a lot more poverty, a huge demographic becoming part of the 99% will have to have come to pass before there is any 'change' (oh - shit- that's right Jonkey promised 'change we culd rely on' last time too - didn't he?).
Not to worry. Thing is ... the longer it takes, the MORE likely it is that assholes won't survive - let alone LIVE, as we've seen from past history. IT really depends on how violent they want it.
I can't argue with anything John said. Goff was just another Rogernome and the rest of Labour are as right wing as National was before Lange/Douglas shifted the goalposts.
Yep, NZ politics, as indeed is prevalent pretty much everywhere in the West (so this is not meant as an anti-NZ rant) is a case of "Meet the new Boss, same as the old Boss." The duopoly of Nat/Lab doesn't give any real choice at all, when both are scrambling for the same demographic. MMP was supposed to fix all that, but it hasn't. No 3rd party has been able to gain 25-30% of the vote. Such a party, offering a genuine 3rd choice has simply not eventuated. We, collectively, are to blame for this. No one in this country wants to think outside of the soothing, pleasing, familiar, brainless status-quo. If Labour can't seem to produce the answers we want, well, then we must vote for National instead. And vice-versa. God forbid that we "rock the boat".
Labour are more right wing than they should be but they are still the much much lesser evil than National in this election. I'm more concerned about the Greens who still haven't ruled out coalescing with National after the election. A large majority of anti-National voters may discover they party voted John Key for PM after all.
I also feel that Goff may have had a road to Damascus moment and that a argument could be made that he might be a better man now than the youth of the 1980's because of his foolish misguided start ( let's not forget that it was a long time ago in a different world) moreover I don't want to see him lose this election as the alternative is drastically bad. I believe that John Key might be New Zealand's George Bush, a fuck up in his first term but a dirty bomb in his second. The left needs to pull together not fight for the scraps.
I agree. Labour need to open up to working with Mana (Hone Harawira hasn't ruled it out but Phil Goff said he has) and the Greens need to refuse to work with National then the left would be starting to look really strong.
The Greens need to refuse to work with National! If they become part of a right wing govt they will be committing Hara-kiri with the only upside being that if Mana can hold it together 3 years they will be 4-5 seats the next election.
there is a certain irony in the fact that goff's underlying prejudice towards maori is what will spell his defeat. labour would not have lost 4 years ago if they hadn't caused the formation of the maori party and thus a loss of the maori vote, following the monumental f*&k up that was the fssb bill (the 'outcry' from middle nz over the fssb was pure ignorance whipped up by the usual suspects from the far right). and now, the knee jerk, fearful reaction (will not work with mana etc) once again panders to the ignorance of the 'middle nz' masses and will play right into the hands of the neo cons. once again it is the electorates' deep seated, inbred fear and loathing of maori aspiration, and having to confront some uncomfortable truths that may well spell defeat for the left again. the TRUTH will set you free, NOT fear.
The (old) new right in Labour win this election no matter what the outcome... If Key wins he does more than they could possibly do if they were in power by flogging off the nation's assets to the 1%. Running with the ineffectual Geoff gives Labour an even better outcome than if they win.
I just don't get this love affair with the 1% and wanting to help them get even richer, or is it the peoples fault who keep voting for these right wingers who enable the 1% to get richer? Why do these new right crave helping the 1% more than they crave power?
@Elaine #1 i've voted green for last 9 years and grew increasingly angry and despondent at their treatment at the hans of labour and at their own lack of testicular fortitude !! No more Mana for me this time and as I may have mentioned in an earlier post on Tumeke I went to Hone's Aranui High (ChCh)meeting and was astounded at the LACK of maori there. . . the majority looked like labour or green voters. . . this election could produce a few suprises . . . national not getting the support they think they deserve and Mana getting waayyyy more than anyone thinks.
Can't wait
@netanaproductions True on the fssb bill back when. I couldn'd believe that noone seemed to be able to see what had happened. That the govt, fearing a court decision would go against them totally usurped the judicial and democratic proceses and over rode them with a law change. A not very well constructed one at that!!
They're already committing Hara-kiri with former Green voters like me by not ruling out being in a National govt before the election.
( Please be warned . Contains many ' fuck ' words ) AH HA ! See ! I told you ! Further more ; John Minto RULES baby ! Re ' Tim ' . Yep ! Violence is on the horizon God help us . Carl Marx and the class wars he predicted perhaps ? ( Not that I subscribe to Communist beliefs I hasten to add .) Re ' Ovicula ' My understanding is when Lange realized he'd been stabbed in the back by douglas and so booted douglas out of parliament , Lange went on to caution douglas supporters that if they admitted douglas back into Parliament , he , Lange would resign . re Nitrium . Ever heard of the boiling frog experiment ? If you place a frog into boiling water , it leaps out as one might imagine ! Put a frog into cold water then slowly bring the water to the boil , the frog will boil right along with it . My point is ; if Kiwis are slowly exposed to ever increasing levels of abuse , depravation , lies , theft , treachery and corporate subjugation we'll be in it up to our necks without realizing it . If , on the other hand , this deviant shit happened over night there'd be a civil war raging as I write ! Re ' slydixon ' . If Phyllis ( Hahahaha ! ) goff suddenly had an epiphany and might be genuinely contrite about his past monumental fuck ups , why hasn't he said so ? Why has he not come out of the vile , liars closet of gloom he and his ilk shrunk into with OUR money years ago ? I can answer that , I say boldly from behind my thin veil of anonymity here . THEY ARE HIDING SOMETHING DUMMIES ! As I've asked before . WHERE'S OUR FUCKING MONEY ! ? If Camalco is up for sale and it generates 506 Million for the Southland Economy which is just 13 % of Southlands total economy then .... Fuck ! I wish I taken more of an interest in maths at school ! Any way , it seems like a fuck load of money is being generated just in Southland ! Have you seen how many people are down here ! ? About fucking six ! Six people are generating millions and millions of EXPORT DOLLARS ! Not a fucking false economy , borrowed Federal Reserve fucking Goldman Sachs money ! Can I say this more plainly ! ? The Goffkey clique is a brutal aberration of all that is Kiwi , honest , loyal , fun loving and hardworking ! They're expecting us to thank them for the abuse they've meted out by expecting , indeed imploring , us to vote for the F.... g c....'s ! Shonky johnkey and Flaccid Phyllis are hiding a monumental lie of biblical proportions and it's my humble view ,we , us Kiwis , need a Royal Commission of Enquiry into the relationships between present and historical politicians and those few fat , sociopathic corporate wankers who sit , with their pale , flaccid arse cheeks sagging over our money ! And has they sit and belch and fart in their climactic excesses , our kids go hungry , ignorant and get lost to us in their hopelessness . Us adults have to struggle in a land of more then plenty and worry about our old age , worry about how to pay for the electricity , the phone , of how we look like shit , dressed in polypropylene fabric as our wool industry shrivels and dies ( For example ) .... Our High Flyer politicians haven't simply made errors in judgement in the past . They have committed crimes for fucks sake ! Bit wait ! I digress ! I'm off again . All mad and foaming at the mouth ! My God ! I'm a Kiwi . I should shut up , grab a beer and go watch the Addington cup !
( Please be warned . Contains many ' fuck ' words ) AH HA ! See ! I told you ! Further more ; John Minto RULES baby ! Re ' Tim ' . Yep ! Violence is on the horizon God help us . Carl Marx and the class wars he predicted perhaps ? ( Not that I subscribe to Communist beliefs I hasten to add .) Re ' Ovicula ' My understanding is when Lange realized he'd been stabbed in the back by douglas and so booted douglas out of parliament , Lange went on to caution douglas supporters that if they admitted douglas back into Parliament , he , Lange would resign . re Nitrium . Ever heard of the boiling frog experiment ? If you place a frog into boiling water , it leaps out as one might imagine ! Put a frog into cold water then slowly bring the water to the boil , the frog will boil right along with it . My point is ; if Kiwis are slowly exposed to ever increasing levels of abuse , depravation , lies , theft , treachery and corporate subjugation we'll be in it up to our necks without realizing it . If , on the other hand , this deviant shit happened over night there'd be a civil war raging as I write ! Re ' slydixon ' . If Phyllis ( Hahahaha ! ) goff suddenly had an epiphany and might be genuinely contrite about his past monumental fuck ups , why hasn't he said so ? Why has he not come out of the vile , liars closet of gloom he and his ilk shrunk into with OUR money years ago ? I can answer that , I say boldly from behind my thin veil of anonymity here . THEY ARE HIDING SOMETHING DUMMIES ! As I've asked before . WHERE'S OUR FUCKING MONEY ! ? If Camalco is up for sale and it generates 506 Million for the Southland Economy which is just 13 % of Southlands total economy then .... Fuck ! I wish I taken more of an interest in maths at school ! Any way , it seems like a fuck load of money is being generated just in Southland ! Have you seen how many people are down here ! ? About fucking six ! Six people are generating millions and millions of EXPORT DOLLARS ! Not a fucking false economy , borrowed Federal Reserve fucking Goldman Sachs money ! Can I say this more plainly ! ? The Goffkey clique is a brutal aberration of all that is Kiwi , honest , loyal , fun loving and hardworking ! They're expecting us to thank them for the abuse they've meted out by expecting , indeed imploring , us to vote for the F.... g c....'s ! Shonky johnkey and Flaccid Phyllis are hiding a monumental lie of biblical proportions and it's my humble view ,we , us Kiwis , need a Royal Commission of Enquiry into the relationships between present and historical politicians and those few fat , sociopathic corporate wankers who sit , with their pale , flaccid arse cheeks sagging over our money ! And has they sit and belch and fart in their climactic excesses , our kids go hungry , ignorant and get lost to us in their hopelessness . Us adults have to struggle in a land of more then plenty and worry about our old age , worry about how to pay for the electricity , the phone , of how we look like shit , dressed in polypropylene fabric as our wool industry shrivels and dies ( For example ) .... Our High Flyer politicians haven't simply made errors in judgement in the past . They have committed crimes for fucks sake ! Bit wait ! I digress ! I'm off again . All mad and foaming at the mouth ! My God ! I'm a Kiwi . I should shut up , grab a beer and go watch the Addington cup !
Don't hold back, Countryboy! Tell us how you feel!!
My partner and I have talked about this last night and we are both historically Greens party voters.
Both her and I will change our votes to either Labour or Mana(more likely) if the Greens don't rule out working with National.
re Elaine . Can you imagine how insufferable I am in the flesh ? Oh , and I was holding back so in future and at your request ... ; )
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