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Friday, November 25, 2011

Last polls

Is Don Brash going to be a minister in a National government - and if so, what stuff will he be put in charge of selling off? If the alternative is Hone and Mana supporting a Labour+Green government in one form or another surely that is preferred.

The NZ Herald with interesting polling news about the surge in NZ First support:

And today's Herald-DigiPoll survey shows Winston Peters' New Zealand First party is above the 5 per cent of voter support needed to put it back in Parliament.

The campaign ends tonight with Mr Key and Labour leader Phil Goff travelling up the North Island in rival buses.
On today's poll, the Greens on 11.8 per cent would bring in 15 MPs, six more than they have now.

Labour on 28 per cent would end up with 34 MPs, nine fewer than at present.

National polled 50.9 per cent (up 1 point in a week), Labour 28 (down 1.1), Greens 11.8 (down 0.8), NZ First 5.2 (up 0.3), Act 1.8 (up 0.1), Conservatives 1.3 (up 0.7), Maori Party 0.4 (down 0.3), Mana 0.3 (down 0.1), United Future 0 (down 0.1).

Act is still polling quite high despite their many, many problems, but it all hangs on Epsom. My guess - although I haven't been on the ground there - is that the Epsom voters will bite their tongue and return John Banks because they know if they do that's one or two extra on his coat-tails from the list and that may well mean the difference between National in government or in opposition. Banks is a conservative in a conservative electorate, he is an experienced and dedicated campaigner and the Act Epsom electorate machine is well oiled, so I expect Banks will scoot through, but the majority will be far from the fairly healthy margin that Hide managed last time.

I suspect Labour will go above 30% off the back of Goff's strong showing in the debates and the position taken against asset sales. There's no way the Nats will pull over 50% no matter how great the media think they are (certainly the NZ Herald whose political correspondents - all of them - inexplicably gave the last debate to Key). They can't get over 47%, but I think they will be around 46% - quite high, and very high after a spell in government.

The Greens showing at over 10% is not surprising to me, but if they actually get that much I would be amazed. Their numbers have always been soft and I can't see that changing - so 10 or 11 is more like 8 or 9 - I'm sticking with the forecast I made last month, probably closer to 8% - which would still be an excellent result.

Mana is not registering that much in the opinion polling, but lately the Maori Party support has fallen off and Mana has been above 1% in the polls, reflecting something much bigger happening outside the narrow range captured by the landline polling techniques. Mana will cut the Maori Party's vote substantially - probably taking them below 1% and causing an overhang. Mana has also made some inroads across ethnicity and regions and may get 4 MPs - probably more than Act will get anyway. A lot of what Hone has been saying is resonating beyond disgruntled ex-Maori Party voters and a top 4 with Sue Bradford and John Minto is attracting working class and Left support. Annette Sykes has worked incredibly hard in Waiariki and deserves to take the seat off Te Ururoa - she seems to have the organisation and momentum to achieve this.

And as for the personal popularity contest, Key is still coasting along in his bubble, but Goff has finally managed to get up to a respectable level - better late than never:

The popularity of Mr Key as preferred Prime Minister remains high at 66.3 per cent, down slightly from 68.5.

Mr Goff's popularity has continued to rise throughout the campaign. He began it on 11.7 per cent and is now preferred Prime Minister by 19.5 per cent.


At 25/11/11 2:47 pm, Blogger DebsisDead said...

Today's herald attempt to scare the voters off supporting MMP or anyone but jonkey is such a low act bereft of either truth or ethics, I feel obliged to point out once again the herald's political editor John Armstrong is a foreigner who refuses to take out NZ citizenship.
Would the population of any other country sit idly by whilst an alien blow-in deliberately promotes a political party that intends to wreak havoc upon those citizens?

The Key asset sell off can be a great little earner for the man who appears to be power behind APN, the Herald's owners, russian oligarch Alexander Lebedev.
Lebedev who bailed previous Herald owner Tony O'Reilly outta the pooh by buying the Indy for one pound sterling, made a big whack of his fortune from the partial privatization of Russian energy producer Gazprom.
He learned his economics during the last decade of the so-called 'cold war', when he was based in London allegedly as an economics attache, cover for his true role within teh First Chief Directorate (Foreign Intelligence) of Russia's KGB.
Lebedev hung around after the collapse of the soviet union to get seniority in its successor, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (FIB).
It seems Lebedev was as unattached to 'mother Russia' as he was to the Russian Communist Party. The Sunday Express once stated that he “spent more time studying finance and the City than British secrets”.

This made a falling out with Putin inevitable, for as pragmatic and ruthless as Putin appears to be, he is believed put the long term needs of his homeland ahead of personal interest.
Lebedev scurried back to London where he has remained, apart from the odd trip 'abroad' with his personal cruise ship ironically described as a private 'yacht'.

Some may remember the Herald's fawning reports of Lebedev and his 'yacht' when he flew here to it, while the boat was moored at Princes Wharf.
From memory, Tony Reilly still owned the Independant, the herald, and england's Evening Standard at that juncture. The Herald's out of character spin about a billionaire Russian oligarch seems a crude attempt to sell Lebedev to the Herald readership prior to take over.

Another course of action was decided upon. Instead of taking over the herald, it seems his purchase of the Indy for 1 pound was sufficient to enable Tony O'Reilly's two sons Gavin & Cameron O'Reilly to take control of Independant News and Media and it's subsidiary, Herald owner APN.

This is a tangled web of off-shore holdings, shell companies, publically listed corporations and privately held companies, seemingly designed to foil a casual observer into believing that fishwraps such as the herald are publically owned stand-alone entities.

They aren't, and given the toxic combination of an unprofitable & getting more so print media, with the revelations about dirty deals between the news media and political parties emanating from London England, one dreads the eventual cost to the people of NZ for the Herald's blatant, totally subjective support of the National Party.

Like John Key with his foreign retirement homes, the Herald hacks owe no particular allegiance to NZ. Once the bones of out society have been 100% picked over, they can move on to the next credulous target.

At 25/11/11 8:38 pm, Blogger Frank said...

I think the Maori Party need to think hard and clearly about going into coalition with National. Once in Coalition, they may not be able to vote against asset sales, as Pita Sharples has promised.

It's more complicated than that...



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