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Saturday, November 05, 2011

Ipredict Election 2011 with Nikki Kaye and Matthew Hooton

A preview interview for iPredict Election 2011 with Chris Philpott, TV reviewer at Stuff.co.nz

FRIDAY: Matthew Hooton & Nikki Kaye

Prediction 1 - iPredict saw Nikki Kaye's probability of winning Auckland Central drop from 76% to 73% in the wake of the Backbenchers debate.  She’s still looking good, but what went wrong?
Prediction 2 - Colmar Brunton's landline polls released last night claim National at 56% support, the iPredict market however say 46.5% party support. Are National voters being lulled into a false sense of complacency by Guyon Espiner and the NZ Herald?
Prediction 3 - Unemployment figures released yesterday showed unemployment increased to 6.6%, and the market after heavy trading last night is predicting a 40% probability it will remain over 6.5% into the December quarter, Phil needs to show us the money, but John needs to show us the jobs.

Thursday's predictions with Simon Bridges & Selwyn Manning

Prediction 1: iPredict says that Simon Bridges chance of increasing his majority in Tauranga has slipped back to 77% in the wake of the Rena disaster - other than the pristine beaches of the East Cape, what else will the Rena oil spill stick to politically?

Prediction 2: After heavy trading, iPredict again gives ACT a 62% chance in Epsom after sentiment swung last week in favour of National’s Paul Goldsmith. With the market forecasting a National party vote of just 46%, does Epsom become Nationals lifeline to forming a Government?

Prediction 3: After Greece's shock announcement this week that they will take their austerity measures to a referendum, iPredict gives a 17% probability that one country will be forced out of the Eurozone by January. Would this prompt a crisis for New Zealand? Are Treasury's black swans about to come home to roost for the NZ economy?

Full guest list:
iPredict Election 2011 will include political commentary drawn from a panel including: iPredict Chief Executive Matt Burgess; interest.co.nz founder Bernard Hickey; electionresults.co.nz editor Ian Llewellyn; National Business Review political columnist Matthew Hooton and business reporter Matt Nippert; former Labour Party strategist John Pagani; political commentator Chris Trotter; former National Party research boss Neil Miller; Otago University political scientist Bryce Edwards; Editor of Scoop.co.nz Selwyn Manning; From the University of Auckland Film, Television and Media Studies Department, Phoebe Fletcher; National’s up-and-coming MPs Simon Bridges and Nikki Kaye; Labour’s finance spokesman David Cunliffe and Labour's new blood, Stuart Nash and Jacinda Ardern; Mana leader Hone Harawira; Green Party co-leaders Russel Norman, Metiria Turei and NZs youngest MP Gareth Hughes; UnitedFuture leader Peter Dunne; Conservative Party leader Colin Craig; and New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.

Other commentators and politicians are also in the process of being invited.

The programme will be hosted by Citizen A host Martyn Bradbury.

iPredict Election 2011 7pm weeknights, Stratos TV Freeview 21 & Sky 89



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