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Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Has John Key just lost the election?

I can't believe what I am seeing.

The difference between John Key and a Japanese nuclear reactor is that Japanese nuclear reactors know when to stop melting down.

Labour went through a series of home goals as Phil bumped around as leader, but watching National's self mutilation by Key walking away from the media without answering questions would make a masochist wince.

National's strategy to gag the media by bringing in the Police has provoked a terrible backlash.

Will John Campbell, Duncan Garner, Paddy Gower, Barry Soaper, John Armstrong etc etc etc really put up with that?


The media know what are on the tapes now and every day that passes, John Key will be asked specific questions and the pressure will mount every hour of the campaign. There is blood in the water now, and the journalists are about to go into a feeding frenzy.

We forget Key has only been in politics for 6 years before he became Prime Minister and the stress is more intense now than at any other time. Whoever is running political strategy for National has just managed to tip the scales against Key at a crucial moment in the election.

National just went sub 45% party vote.

We can look past off color comments from Key, because he's made so many in the past and he's still so popular, but it's the character that emerges when the pressure comes on that determines Prime Ministers.

It wasn't so much that Helen Clark pretended to paint a painting, it was that she had people buy it and burn it afterwards that was the major turn off.

It's how Key has reacted so poorly to the taping scandal that is far more damaging than what he's probably said. 

Personally I find Key's claim that he is standing up for the principle against secret taping after ramming through the search and surveillance bill utterly astounding.

Key can't agree to releasing the transcript before the police have finished their political investigation so he walks out of every media question time on the campaign trail until the election?

It's like watching a train crash in slow motion.



At 16/11/11 8:42 pm, Blogger Frank said...

And the irony is?

If he'd released the tapes last Monday, people would've forgotten about it after the first ad break...

he can't claim privacy issues when his governmenthas just enacted the Police Surveillance Bill, and made it retrospective, to allow police to spy on political activists.

This isn't just irony, it's self-satire at it's finest.

And yes, after this, National will have dipped into the high-to-mid 40 percentages.

At 16/11/11 9:13 pm, Blogger Tiger Mountain said...

Hone Harawira aptly made the comparison on the TVNZ leaders tv debate tonite about the contradictory nature of ShonKey’s whinging vs. the Nat/ACT rushed through Search and Surveillance Bill that promotes all kinds of extended state snooping by cops, cops special ops and every tin pot buearucat imaginable.

At 16/11/11 9:17 pm, Blogger Nitrium said...

I was laughing so hard I almost barfed. There is almost nothing more satisfying than watching this smug wanker squirm in a situation that is in essence 100% of his own making. Smiling and waving suddenly not doing the trick, eh John. Is the inexplicable media love affair with Key finally be over?

At 16/11/11 9:59 pm, Blogger CAS said...

I remember Matt McCarten made the bold prediction on iPredict that one time that National will get 50% of the vote. Do you think he might want to retract that at the moment?

In all fairness, he probably didn't see this sort of meltdown coming, but then, I doubt any of us did.

It's breathtaking how much Key is mismanaging this whole affair and I guess it plays in to the contradictory nature of his flirtations with ACT in Epsom -
"Vote for John Banks! Never mind that I'm asking everyone to do something I won't be doing myself."
"Hey, media! Come and watch the two Johnnies having tea! Oh, but you can't listen to what we're saying because it's a private meeting that you're all going to be staring at."
"The stuff we talked about was completely bland and vague and of no interest to anyone. But I will stop at nothing to prevent the contents of the recording being leaked to the press."

At the end of the day, he chose a public place to have a private meeting with a potential coalition partner, invited the media to watch the whole thing and had what could be an embarrassing conversation with that person. What the fuck did he expect would happen?

At 16/11/11 10:59 pm, Blogger Kiwi Riverman's Blogesphere said...

The Key to another National victory? Yeah right! The shadowy committee behind key will be getting worried that National may fall to about 45% - then they may be fish tucker!

At 16/11/11 11:52 pm, Blogger Raph NZ said...

As a bleeding heart lefty, I've been a little down recently, seeing who would otherwise be rather intelligent people possibly voting National for an unsustainable tax cut and an unfounded trust that their leader is more competent than Labours, seeing the best country in the world being sold by a currency trader to lowest bidder, seeing an election fought on smiles and personality rather than need and policy the list goes on.

This week my partner and I have had so many smiles on our face, normally driving out to Red Cliffs for a class we see devastation and homes on the edge of a cliff, this week hugely enhanced National billboards!!! We were laughing and smiling, "is that one" Lol(really) "Drill it, Mine it, Sell it" "woot pure brilliance" "hey hey The Rich Deserve More!" Lol

This has been a good week, now with the high monitoring psychopath we call our Prime Minister having a cup of tea with the bully boy racist, I thought the c.... how dare they, that gives them an extra 1-2 seats. Nek Minit... Suicide Barbie, Meth Addict on a Bender, I did not have relations with that woman!

To John Key I love how you are "akshully" a total fuck up and unless this is all planned and there really is nothing on the tapes, I clap as you fall! *claps* Take a bow!

At 17/11/11 6:27 am, Blogger Frank said...

Last night's (Wednesday) TV3 interbiew with John Banks once again decended into farce.

At first Banks couldn't recall what had been discussed at last Friday's "cuppa tea". (Right wing politicians seem to be having medium-term memory problems. Is this genetic? Congenital? Environmental?)

Then Patrick Gower tried showing John Banks the transcrip, on a sheet of paper, several times. Banks retorted,

"“I don't need to look at [the transcript], I remember my conversation.”"

Then Banks realised what he's said, and looked sheepish. Look here;


High farce at it's best. Reminds of some of the good comedic sketches from "McPhail & Gadsby".


Gower: 1
Banks: 0

At 17/11/11 6:41 am, Blogger Frank said...

Kiwi Riverman - my guess for the election outcome;

National: 46%
Labour: 35%
Greens: 12%
... NZ First: 5% (just barely)
ACT: 1% (no seats, loses Epsom)
United Future: 1% (no seats, loses Ohariu)
Maori Party: 3 seats
Mana Party: 1 seat (maybe 2)

Result: Labour-Greens-Maori Party Coalition Government, with NZ First and Mana Party support for Supply & Confidence.

At 17/11/11 10:40 am, Blogger countryboy said...

Hahaha ! All you guys are brilliant ! Very funny !
Here's my prediction for the up and coming election . National wins .... I'm fucking outa here ! There's no way I'm going to work and pay taxes to keep these pricks in their ( Our ! ) BMW's . I can't face another three years of feeling the way I do right now . There's this beach near Byron Bay ... Oh but wait ! The americans are sending in the troops to intimidate the new Yellow Peril there are they not ! Does anyone know an Alien ? Is so , could you please ask them to drop me off on some nice warm planet in a parallel Universe ?

At 17/11/11 4:47 pm, Blogger CAS said...

Frank, I can see National get sub 40% and Labour getting slightly higher than 35% - say something like:

National - 42%
Labour - 38%

I don't think this meltdown from Key will see him go below 40 or get Labour above 40.

What is interesting is how the Peters factor plays in. I wonder if Peters can possibly work with Key in opposition (I suspect that Key will come up with some bullshit goalpost-shifting excuse to stay in politics and the dynamic environment he finds himself in) and if that will see him side with the likely Labour-Green coalition, should both parties get enough seats.

At 17/11/11 5:09 pm, Blogger MemeSpree NZ said...

The best part is how John refused to apologise for the suicide comments. Like, after he'd seen how it bombed with the public as a response, he still stuck with being a dick.

Oh, and now the police want to enact a search warrant on the media to get unpublished evidence in the whole thing. Oh, lawdy, I kind of wish I had to make this stuff up, because the fact that I don't have to shows just how strong Key's sense of entitlement is.

At 20/11/11 9:01 pm, Blogger Kiwi Riverman's Blogesphere said...

National probably 45% at the most. Labour 33%, Greens 12% = 45%, NZ First 5.5%, Mana 2% - that leaves 2.25% Labour/greens need 1% more than National to have the right to form a government, with NZ First and Mana support from the crossbenches. Maori Party will get 3 seats at the most, and no percentage support. Act is of course dead? Isn't?

At 25/11/11 10:54 pm, Blogger Jeremy List said...


I'm surprised this hasn't gotten more attention


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