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Monday, November 28, 2011

Election reflection: Waiariki [UPDATE: booth analysis]

The first time I had any doubt that Annette may not be able to take Waiariki was as a scrutineer watching the initial check through for "informal" votes - Te Ururoa had a lot and Te Kani (the Labour candidate) also had a substantial amount. Worrying.

The Mana team had saturated this town for the last month and got positive local press, the other candidates were not nearly so visible - to have it so tight was alarming. And then the actual count on the booth was Flavell 90, Sykes 88, Te Kani 83. Mr Bradbury texted me the advance voting which had Te Ururoa well ahead. I knew we were in trouble at that point and left immediately for the office. There I heard the town's other booth had gone a similar way. If we can't get enough here I can't imagine we can get enough in all the other places where we weren't as organised and hadn't been going as long. It looked bad. Even worse when the party vote nationally was tracking just below 1%. Mana needed about 1.5% to get Annette in off the list, but this wasn't looking possible unless a massive surge from the big South Auckland booths could pull it up. It didn't happen. I know that not a lot can be expected from a party that is only about half a year old and has no money, but I find it very disappointing all the same - my expectations were higher.

Election night figures:
FLAVELL, Te Ururoa James MAOR 6,878
SYKES, Annette Te Imaima MANA 5,058
TE KANI, Louis LAB 3,896
1,820 majority Flavell

Less than 2,000 means the seat is now a marginal. His majority in 2008 was 6,812 - so it is fair to say that Annette managed to slash it substantially. She should seriously consider running again at the next election.

The Party vote in Waiariki was also a disappointment:

Labour 5,679
Maori Party 3,493
Mana 2,661
NZ First 1,855
Greens 1,443
National 930
TOTAL 16,748

Maori Party had more votes - inexplicable, but I put it down to the inertia of incumbency. I saw quite a few split votes too - Sykes for electorate and either Greens or Labour for the party. I only saw one split vote that was Te Ururoa and Mana (and only a very few going Sykes, Maori Party) indicating a very strong division between Mana and Maori Party voters - reflecting the split that gave rise to the Mana movement.

Looking at the breakdown by booths Flavell won every booth in Tauranga and the Mount - this was Sykes' major weak spot. He also took Murapara - the home of the Maori Party President, Pem Bird. Sykes won a number of smaller booths where the movement had a presence and hoardings were up, like the Coast, Minginui and Kaingaroa.

Waiariki main booths (Sykes win in bold)

Bethlehem (2 booths): TU Flavell 57, A Sykes 21, L Te Kani 20
Edgecumbe (2): TU 64, AS 41, TK 39
Kaingaroa (1): TU 20, AS 42, TK 37
Kawerau (2): TU 219, AS 233, TK 75
Matapihi (1): TU 73, AS 19, TK 78
Matata (1): TU 29, AS 45, TK 23
Maungatapu (2): TU 78, AS 55, TK 87
Murupara (1): TU 132, AS 98, TK 50
Opotiki (2): TU 167, AS 157, TK 147
Taneatua (1): TU 53, AS 67, TK 25
Te Puke (2): TU 125, AS 64, TK 86
Te Teko (1): TU 93, AS 87, TK 39
Turangi (3): TU 166, AS 73, TK 67
Whakatane (6) TU 393, AS 401, TK 267
Waimana (2): TU 33, AS 62, TK 19
Urewera (Minginui+Ruatahuna): TU 34, AS 72, TK 30

Papamoa (5): TU 158, AS 84, TK 124
Mt Maunganui (8): TU 208, AS 90, TK 150
Welcome Bay (3): TU 119, AS 62, TK 96
Tauranga (16): TU 463, AS 229, TK 323
Te Puna (2): TU 74, AS 22, TK 39

Lynmore (2): TU 88, AS 30, TK 29
Ngapuna (1): TU 59, AS 89, TK 22
Ngongotaha (1): TU 218, AS 85, TK 61
Okere Falls (1): TU 50, AS 46, TK 13
Owhata (2): TU 165, AS 125, TK 83
Rotoiti (1): TU 49, AS 53, TK 9
Rotorua (22): TU: 1391, AS 1093, TK 791

Rotokawa (1): TU 45, AS 47, TK 23
Wairakei Village (1): TU 24, AS 9, TK 11
Taupo (21): TU 350, AS 204, TK 123

East Coast:
(Torere+Omaio+Omarumutu): TU 57, AS 90, TK 27
Raukokore (1): TU 15, AS 28, TK 11
Te Kaha (1): TU 50, AS 54, TK 27

Whakatane was a surprise, Mana was late in organising anything there, but ended up winning those booths on the day. Annette represented the so-called "terrorists" in the Crown's Urewera show trial that never was so she picked up a lot of support in Ruatoki and Waimana where it happened and took those booths convincingly. Same with the Coast, the anti-drilling protests were concentrated against the Maori Party and she picked up those booths. She won a few in Rotorua, but not nearly enough to offset those going the other way in big numbers. Same too with Taupo and Turangi where Mana organisation was thin on the ground, Te Ururoa was able to hang on to those ones with a wide margin.

As for the overall result, I'm glad Hone got back in Te Tai Tokerau, but he must carry the banner alone and it will be difficult as one in a House of 121. Better luck next time.


At 28/11/11 11:03 a.m., Blogger gingercrush said...

I think Mana's messages were blurred. I don't mean to be rude but what did Sue Bradford add to Mana. Her extremely weak results in Waitakere suggests to me Mana won't find their home in general working class electorates. Minto did well with the electoral vote but that didn't seem to translate into votes.

Those electorates are so stubbornly tied to Labour. If they're not happy with Labour they just don't seem to vote.

More focus needs to be put on middle class/working electorates and obviously the Maori electorates. Even if Mana took a mere fraction off Labour/Green voters there that would get Mana more MPs in parliament.

Also contary to some of the analysis commentators are giving. Labour didn't improve their Maori vote. And if the Maori party can lose just one MP in an electorate that was always against them then I suggest that is actually a great result.

Especially when the Maori party lose Harawira who subsequently set up his own party and competed against the Maori party in all electorates. And the Maori party had support a National-led government. Personally I think the Maori party should be very proud of themselves.

As for Mana. Harawira shouldn't give up. But Mana and Harawira need to identify who will support and who Mana actually represent. Its fine to support those low income workers, the unemployed, Maori etc. But understand many of those stay stubbornly to Labour.

At 28/11/11 11:19 a.m., Blogger tussock said...

Good try guys, I saw more of Mana in the press than Dunne, though less than ACT.

Y'all got some good people, good policy, and good intentions; you need to work on your propaganda though, eh.

It's a science, and it works. When people go to make that tick, they often have a little voice in their head telling them what that tick will do.

National had "pay debts" and "stability" and "cut wages for more jobs" and "slavery is freedom". +0.

Greens had "green jobs, kids, and rivers". +4.

Labour had "National sucks, eh", again. Oh, and "more taxes" and "eat your vegetables, children". -5.

NZF had "keep the bastards honest". +3.

ACT had "vote National!" -3.

Mana had, like, what? Once Goff said you were out none of the policy stuff matters, no matter how good it is. All you could be was a voice, so what was your voice going to say?

I recall "we'll be a voice for the poor", but what will that do? Please phrase your answer as a soundbite, something that can pass through people's heads on the second it takes to make that tick.

At 28/11/11 1:15 p.m., Blogger Gosman said...

"slavery is freedom"


I must have missed that National Party campaign ad. Was it only Auckland based?

At 28/11/11 3:17 p.m., Blogger fatty said...

Gingercrush, I voted mana and Bradford is probably the MP I have the most respect for - ever...but if I was in Waitakere I would have not voted for her.
How many voted for the Labour candidate to stop Bennett?
I did the same in Chch central...I voted for Burns to keep out Nicky Wagner...and I hate Labour, I do not want to vote National Lite.
But I made the right choice

At 28/11/11 5:08 p.m., Blogger Hypatia said...

Our family voted Mana, its the only left wing party left - apart from The Alliance, whose policies we love but we felt that mana had more of a chance. HOWEVER , there is a fear , on voting Mana, that somewhere down the line Hone is gonna come out with another " i won't let my daughter marry a pakeha " line again... I guess what i'm trying to say is ..I HOPE LIKE HELL Mana doesn't turn on its non- Maori constituents...I think a lot of other lefties feel the same

At 28/11/11 5:20 p.m., Blogger Raph NZ said...

I voted Mana also a little gutted.
Poor people need to vote. The massive disenfranchisement is exactly why National ever gets in.
John Minto is one of my heroes as is Sue Bradford.
I think Hone really got his game going and came across incredibly well in the last few weeks of the election. I just hope that they hold together and give it another go next time.


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