- - - - - - - - - - - - -

Thursday, October 27, 2011

Terrible strategic blunder in Labour's failure to launch



Labour ditches big campaign launch
The Labour Party has broken from tradition by deciding not to have an official campaign launch this year.

Are they even awake over at the Labor Party Election nerve centre? Who the bloody hell is running this campaign? They aren't doing a launch? They do know there's an election in just over a month right?

The strategy behind this is that Goff can't beat Key in a 'presidential style' election and they will focus on policy. This is a great idea and really shows up National's utter lack of policy and their reliance on John Key's smile and wave, that's fine, but to dump the launch? Are you nuts? Do I smell the over hyped hand of Grant Robertson?

Labour have terribly misread the electorate and bought the lies from the failed landline methodology opinion polls. The level of poverty and hurt caused by the recession is real, and Labour's policies do more to address that than National's ever do, but refusing to launch looks weak and that Labour don't actually have any faith in their own solutions.

Dumb, dumb, dumb.

MANA is launching on Guy Fawkes day, who doesn't want to celebrate a pakeha who wanted to remind Parliament that one person can make a difference by blowing it up? That sense of occasion and drama can be captured for the theatre of the launch which gives voters a sense of purpose and strength as to why they should be inspired enough to volunteer their time and help. Deciding that Goff can't foot it against Key is a terrible miscalculation by a Labour Party who don't seem to believe they can actually win.

What makes this decision even more stupid is that in the Key-Goff TV debates, Labour has a real chance of recapturing the debate. Goff has been written off so enters the debate as the under dog, most punters only see Key when he has been media clipped for his one liners, a sustained 90 minute debate will throw up all those elements of Key they don't see and surprise viewers with how well Phil does compared to their current low view of him.

Labour still can win, but they aren't making it easy for themselves.

FACEBOOK
TWITTER

14 Comments:

At 27/10/11 8:33 am, Blogger mickysavage said...

Not sure Bomber.

If Labour gets involved in a "my personality cult is bigger than your personality cult" then they will lose. By concentrating on policy they will be targeting National's weakness that they have no policy, apart from selling state assets and not putting up the age of retirement.

This is the total antithesis of a personality cult campaign. It has also attracted attention. Labour is well and truly the underdog but is showing that it will take brave action.

Time will tell if it works.

 
At 27/10/11 9:15 am, Blogger Bomber said...

You are 1000% right Mickey that you don't want to get into a cult of personality fight and that it should be about policy, but a launch is a launch is a launch - the launch could have still featured the policy direction, but not having one just looks weak.

 
At 27/10/11 9:52 am, Blogger Jasper said...

The Nat's are have their's at the opening of the Viaduct Motorway Under-pass in Auckland on Saturday! Unofficially though. On the tax-pay care of S Joyce's motorway building program!1000 invited guests, wined & dine in the tunnel!

 
At 27/10/11 10:04 am, Blogger countryboy said...

Am I the only one who is paranoid enough to conclude that there is no main political party or opposition to it ? Am I wrong in basing my dubious suspicions on the fact that National Party hoardings out number Labour Party hoardings ten to one ? goff's just a dull , dodgy little prick like key so why the inane debate about which Party is better/worse ? The national ( Front ) party is going to ' win ' this election and it's going to pave the way for the corporatization of NZ . The labour party's job will be to squeak about it and carry out useless , red herring debates about it which might result in one or two inquiry's which will achieve less than winston peters did during the wine box enquiry , if that's possible . If the Labour Party were true to it's roots there would be vicious fights between National party MP's and Labour Party MP's in the Halls of Parliament . We have no government . We have a regime pushing an agenda and they continue to fool us all ! Oh ! Re voting in this farce ! This comic opera Gilbert and Sullivan would envy ? I'm voting Mana so fuck you , goff and key !

 
At 27/10/11 12:25 pm, Blogger MAHA****************** said...

ludicris tactic ,disappointing labour the largest left party cant even have a get together dump whoever came up with this self defeatist strategy

 
At 27/10/11 1:36 pm, Blogger CAS said...

I think mickysavage and Bomber both have valid points here. I am leaning a bit towards what mickysavage is saying and I think Labour's move was entirely based on focusing on the issues. You can also see it in how the political ads have been put together. Labour's features Goff discussing the issues, whereas the Nats have a fairly negative ad that is based around attacking Labour without really talking about the issues at hand in this election. Goff's tactic is a clever one, since if he successfully draws Key into a policy and issues debate, Key is going to have to fight from a precarious position.

 
At 27/10/11 2:13 pm, Blogger Nitrium said...

Am I the only one who is paranoid enough to conclude that there is no main political party or opposition to it ?
No. No you are not.

 
At 27/10/11 3:31 pm, Blogger AAMC said...

+1 Countryboy.

Except I'll vote Green and trust they won't deal with the worse of the devils.

I am however starting to hope National will win and inherit the economic shit storm ahead. If it wasn't for the Totalitarian agenda they'll pursue with a second term andthe sale of our assets.

Although, we may just have to re-nationalize them.

 
At 27/10/11 3:34 pm, Blogger AAMC said...

+1 Countryboy.

Except I'll vote Green and trust they won't deal with the worse of the devils.

I am however starting to hope National will win and inherit the economic shit storm ahead. If it wasn't for the Totalitarian agenda they'll pursue with a second term andthe sale of our assets.

Although, we may just have to re-nationalize them.

 
At 27/10/11 4:02 pm, Blogger sdm said...

Is this not a huge concession from Labour, given they have spent 3 plus years targeting Key personally. This has created a personality contest which Goff loses time and time again. That strategy has failed, but I wonder if this shift is too little too late

 
At 27/10/11 5:30 pm, Blogger Frank said...

It only takes little "incidents" to de-rail an election campaign...

http://fmacskasy.wordpress.com/2011/10/27/two-lost-votes-for-the-nats/

At least one local is not very happy at political taggers. And it's fairly obvious who is responsible...

 
At 27/10/11 5:56 pm, Blogger Sam Hill said...

Nek Minnit.

Labour announce boldest policy of the campaign so far. Raising Superannuation age to 67. Tories around the country are gobsmacked as they announce their support for such a move. In 2008's campaign, Key wrote a letter to every elderly person in New Zealand, stating he would resign as PM rather than raise the retirement age.

Hows that for a launch?

 
At 27/10/11 10:27 pm, Blogger CAS said...

What's also interesting is that when I was at the waterfront for the RWC final, quite a few people booed John Key as soon as he was on TV. There were cheers for the other officials like Bernard Lapasset and Jock Hobbs, but when Key was on the big screen, quite a few people booed and I'm sure I heard someone yell "fuck off" from somewhere in the crowd. I've heard the reaction was largely 50/50 at the fanzones in the Shore as well.

Perhaps this overexposure, allied with the perceived inaction during the initial part of the Rena disaster is souring how people perceive him. Obviously RWC fanzones aren't exactly a reliable way to measure a leader's popularity, but I do think it is something worth keeping in mind at the same time, considering how many people were there to watch the game.

 
At 28/10/11 1:35 am, Blogger Ovicula said...

Labour seem to be sleepwalking to defeat. I'm voting Mana.

 

Post a Comment

<< Home