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Saturday, October 01, 2011

anti-MANA party bias in landline polls and how National lose

Davis up with Harawira in poll
A poll of Maori voters indicates Mana Party leader Hone Harawira (below) could face a challenge in his Te Tai Tokerau electorate seat.

The full results of the nationwide TVNZ Marae Investigates DigiPoll survey of 1000 voters will be released this morning.

In results released to the Weekend Herald of 93 Te Tai Tokerau voters polled, 30 per cent said they would vote for Labour candidate Kelvin Davis, compared with 28.6 per cent for Mr Harawira.

About 22 per cent said they would vote for Maori Party candidate Waihoroi Shortland.

Pfft. A landline poll in the poorest electorate in the country says Hone is losing? Remember the by-election? Remember how the same landline methodology said Hone was only ahead by 1%? Remember how TVNZ called it for Kelvin? Remember how Hone won by over 9%?

These cheap, brainfart polls with their failed landline methodology manipulate public opinion, they don't reflect it.

What is interesting about the Horizon Poll is that it shows the preferences of those who register normally as 'don't know' and whom are discounted giving a distorted view of actual public opinion. Horizon adds those preferences in and show a very different story...

Minor parties' fates could split Beehive
The new Mana Party, a resurgent New Zealand First, and the diminished Maori Party will have a deciding role in the next government, and may even lead to an evenly split parliament.

A Horizon Research Poll, conducted exclusively for the Sunday Star-Times in mid-September, shows a parliament that would extend to 122 seats but with two possible coalitions on either side with 61 seats each.

National is comfortably leading the individual party vote with 39.5%, up 2.2% since July.

The problem for Prime Minister John Key is the performance of his coalition partner the Maori Party. It was polling just 1.1% compared to 2.2% for the Mana Party.

With New Zealand First polling at 7.3%, converted to seats using the Electoral Commission's calculator, the wash-up would look like this:

Act wins Epsom, United Future wins Ohariu-Belmont, Maori Party wins three seats and with National's share, the right coalition would have 61 seats of a 122-seat parliament (the two seat "overhang" created by the Maori Party).

Mana Party wins two Maori electorate seats and has a third seat added to reflect its support, Labour (27%) and the Greens (10.7%) would bring 49 seats and New Zealand First would have nine.

Doing the maths produces an interesting result – 61 seats on each side.

...Britain and Australia have had hung Parliaments as the Middle Classes of booth Nations have collapsed leaving no middle ground. I've argued that the Mainstream media cheap brainfart polls have merely pretended the election is a sleepwalk to victory for John Key, the real issue being who can National form a coalition with.

When Chris Carter tried to roll Goff, I blogged that Chris was wrong because the economy would turn before the November election and Key's empty optimism would be see as delusional and disconnected with reality. Last Tuesday Key was listing his so called economic achievements in Parliament, 4 days later our credit was down graded. The meltdown in 2008 has set a unique crises of Capitalism in motion akin to the 1929 collapse. It wasn't until the late 30's that the full social impact of 1929 was felt, which suggests the worst of this recession has barely begun. In the 1930's we saw the political spectrum splinter, and that's what has happened here with MANA to the left of the Greens and neo-ACT under Don being to the right of Genghis Khan.

Goff has already been written off, so if he surprises the masses and out performs Key in the TV debates, Labour can win the argument (expect Farrar to start blogging about how great Goff is in debates, the right need to desperately re-set the voters expectations).

What the msm is missing is the electorate of poverty in NZ and the anger at the pain of that poverty, while National will have the most seats on the night, I don't see United or the Maori Party returning to Parliament and I don't see ACT pulling in any more than Brash.

The economy was always going to decide this election and snap sleepy hobbits out of their complancency with Key as his vacant aspiration starts looking detached from the realities of those sitting around the kitchen table trying to balance the weekly budget.

As National Party Cheerleader and NZ Herald gossip John Armstrong points out today...

It's game on for election as credit ratings cut
Prime Minister John Key's talk of 'muddling through' the international debt crisis has come back to bite him

As much as Bill English downplayed yesterday's downgrades of New Zealand's credit rating, the double whammy from Standard & Poor's and the Fitch ratings agency inevitably casts a big shadow over National's claim to be the most competent manager of the economy.

Coming so close to an election, the downgrade is a huge psychological fillip for a Labour Party desperate to realign the debate on economic management on its terms.

Labour has been arguing - with some justification - that National has not made the hard decisions needed to address imbalances in the economy such as the mountain of private debt.

On that score, the chickens have certainly come home to roost for National in the form of the rating downgrades.

John Key's unfortunate talk of "muddling through" the fallout from the international debt crisis has come back to bite him, big time.

...the economic meltdown was always going to be a feature pre-election and now NZers have to genuinely question what this National Party actually stands for other than the enrichment of the top wealth class.

This election is for the direction of NZ for the next 30 years.



At 1/10/11 12:42 pm, Blogger Nitrium said...

Literally daily, I am completely confounded by the apparent popularity of John Key. It makes no sense whatsoever. He and his lackey, English, have done exactly nothing to address the issues that face the NZ economy. All he has accomplished is to run up deficits to UNPRECEDENTED proportions in order to paper over a depression that won't fix itself. These downgrades are going to result in interest rate spikes, and even higher inflation for an already cash strapped economy.
Seems he has the MSM wrapped around his little finger, which is also completely bewildering. Why won't anyone ask him the hard questions? My theory is he has taken a leaf from the book of George W. Bush, and has stated in no uncertain terms to the media that he will PERMANENTLY deny access to His Greatness if anyone dares to ask him something that makes him look like the utterly contemptible fool he really is.

At 1/10/11 1:52 pm, Blogger DebsisDead said...

None of it matters. That nice Mr Key is going to save Coro St from the Cooking Show Monster.
I wonder how long McCully and Rick Ellis took to think up that little drama? The truly sad thing is it is working. The older working people who have felt increasingly marginalised as 'their' TV channel ignores them on the grounds that they are 'brand loyal (advertise at em for as long as you like & they won't change their soap powder, phone provider or bank), were the only ones really paying attention to the credit downgrade. They remembered that such things had been deemed to be important in the past so must still be important now.

So create a Coro drama that lets smile and wave ride in on his white horse and save the day, and they won't think of anything else.

WE know a few things about the effect of economics on populations now and the first is that in a capitalist economy which depends on getting its 'go forward" from boom bang bust cycles, any downturn will be dismissed as being a normal cyclical event by most citizens unless they are properly forewarned. Even then many will dismiss calls to reality as 'leftie negativism'.

However any rudimentary analysis of the global economy reveals that the downturn is not cyclical, it is structural. It is the result of three decades of exporting productivity to low wage economies.

I guess when all the secondary base moved from developed economies to low wage economies, and there was no sudden apocalypse that most people told themselves it was all going to be alright.
Poor fools who don't understand the long lag in reactions to major structural change. The Effects have to work their way up from the base through the market machinery to the superstructure where most people live and work that can take decades to become really noticeable.

Of course once it does the odds of fixing it quickly or even ameliorating the worst symptoms rapidly, are negligible.

It helps that we don't have anything really valuable, still the greedies aren't fond of anyone who stands up to em. They do like to make examples of 'intractables'.

Tourism would be the first industry to be forcibly shut down. Spain is a classic example of how tourism destroys.
The most successful tourism dependant economy in the world is stuck because Spain is perceived as being a low wage economy (as all tourism dependant economies are)

There is so little difference between Key and Goff that the only diff a slightly more cushioned ride on the Goff juggernaut to national suicide than on the Key conveyance.

We need to be preparing ourselves and as many others as are willing for the inevitable. Make sure that skills and knowledge to instill and maintain solidarity are not lost.

MMP is gonna die in 2012 Key and McCully will ensure that. That means ordinary NZers will be subjected to divisive attacks to distract em. Race, superstition age all the usual ploys will be used.

Short term solutions such as more people ticking a particular box than ticked another, can only ever repair short term problems.

For fifty years NZ's powerful have driven the best and brightest NZers away. Most of them never return, those NZers are in the main being replaced people from the North who may have a particular skillset but they do not come close to filling the gap created by the loss of our best.
We will only know we have 'turned the corner' when our young people elect to stay here in NZ.

At 1/10/11 3:42 pm, Blogger Tiger Mountain said...

The 99%ers in the US are giving Wall St a good rev up and it is the type of anti capitalist peoples movement needed in every country. The Egyptians and Syrians have hopefully shamed and encouraged people in more consumerist individualist countries to stand up and have a go.



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