anti-MANA party bias in landline polls and how National lose
Davis up with Harawira in poll
A poll of Maori voters indicates Mana Party leader Hone Harawira (below) could face a challenge in his Te Tai Tokerau electorate seat.
The full results of the nationwide TVNZ Marae Investigates DigiPoll survey of 1000 voters will be released this morning.
In results released to the Weekend Herald of 93 Te Tai Tokerau voters polled, 30 per cent said they would vote for Labour candidate Kelvin Davis, compared with 28.6 per cent for Mr Harawira.
About 22 per cent said they would vote for Maori Party candidate Waihoroi Shortland.
Pfft. A landline poll in the poorest electorate in the country says Hone is losing? Remember the by-election? Remember how the same landline methodology said Hone was only ahead by 1%? Remember how TVNZ called it for Kelvin? Remember how Hone won by over 9%?
These cheap, brainfart polls with their failed landline methodology manipulate public opinion, they don't reflect it.
What is interesting about the Horizon Poll is that it shows the preferences of those who register normally as 'don't know' and whom are discounted giving a distorted view of actual public opinion. Horizon adds those preferences in and show a very different story...
Minor parties' fates could split Beehive
The new Mana Party, a resurgent New Zealand First, and the diminished Maori Party will have a deciding role in the next government, and may even lead to an evenly split parliament.
A Horizon Research Poll, conducted exclusively for the Sunday Star-Times in mid-September, shows a parliament that would extend to 122 seats but with two possible coalitions on either side with 61 seats each.
National is comfortably leading the individual party vote with 39.5%, up 2.2% since July.
The problem for Prime Minister John Key is the performance of his coalition partner the Maori Party. It was polling just 1.1% compared to 2.2% for the Mana Party.
With New Zealand First polling at 7.3%, converted to seats using the Electoral Commission's calculator, the wash-up would look like this:
Act wins Epsom, United Future wins Ohariu-Belmont, Maori Party wins three seats and with National's share, the right coalition would have 61 seats of a 122-seat parliament (the two seat "overhang" created by the Maori Party).
Mana Party wins two Maori electorate seats and has a third seat added to reflect its support, Labour (27%) and the Greens (10.7%) would bring 49 seats and New Zealand First would have nine.
Doing the maths produces an interesting result – 61 seats on each side.
...Britain and Australia have had hung Parliaments as the Middle Classes of booth Nations have collapsed leaving no middle ground. I've argued that the Mainstream media cheap brainfart polls have merely pretended the election is a sleepwalk to victory for John Key, the real issue being who can National form a coalition with.
When Chris Carter tried to roll Goff, I blogged that Chris was wrong because the economy would turn before the November election and Key's empty optimism would be see as delusional and disconnected with reality. Last Tuesday Key was listing his so called economic achievements in Parliament, 4 days later our credit was down graded. The meltdown in 2008 has set a unique crises of Capitalism in motion akin to the 1929 collapse. It wasn't until the late 30's that the full social impact of 1929 was felt, which suggests the worst of this recession has barely begun. In the 1930's we saw the political spectrum splinter, and that's what has happened here with MANA to the left of the Greens and neo-ACT under Don being to the right of Genghis Khan.
Goff has already been written off, so if he surprises the masses and out performs Key in the TV debates, Labour can win the argument (expect Farrar to start blogging about how great Goff is in debates, the right need to desperately re-set the voters expectations).
What the msm is missing is the electorate of poverty in NZ and the anger at the pain of that poverty, while National will have the most seats on the night, I don't see United or the Maori Party returning to Parliament and I don't see ACT pulling in any more than Brash.
The economy was always going to decide this election and snap sleepy hobbits out of their complancency with Key as his vacant aspiration starts looking detached from the realities of those sitting around the kitchen table trying to balance the weekly budget.
As National Party Cheerleader and NZ Herald gossip John Armstrong points out today...
It's game on for election as credit ratings cut
Prime Minister John Key's talk of 'muddling through' the international debt crisis has come back to bite him
As much as Bill English downplayed yesterday's downgrades of New Zealand's credit rating, the double whammy from Standard & Poor's and the Fitch ratings agency inevitably casts a big shadow over National's claim to be the most competent manager of the economy.
Coming so close to an election, the downgrade is a huge psychological fillip for a Labour Party desperate to realign the debate on economic management on its terms.
Labour has been arguing - with some justification - that National has not made the hard decisions needed to address imbalances in the economy such as the mountain of private debt.
On that score, the chickens have certainly come home to roost for National in the form of the rating downgrades.
John Key's unfortunate talk of "muddling through" the fallout from the international debt crisis has come back to bite him, big time.
...the economic meltdown was always going to be a feature pre-election and now NZers have to genuinely question what this National Party actually stands for other than the enrichment of the top wealth class.
This election is for the direction of NZ for the next 30 years.