Julie Fairey and her predictions
Julie Fairey is one of the best female bloggers in NZ, her insights and arguments towards a society that doesn't treat women as second class citizens are right and righteous. I've known Julie since University days and hold her in the highest of regards.
Except for her latest predictions.
Julie has every right to express her opinion about predictions, what makes her public predictions on her excellent site Hand Mirror a little embarrassing however is that she is the wife of Labour Party candidate Michael Wood - who it must be said was a much better candidate with a very strong showing in the forgotten Botany by-election.
Beyond the basic rule of politics which is 'you're in it to win it' - I just think that Julie's calls aren't taking into account several factors which open her predictions up.
For Auckland Central, what matters is that vast wasted chunk of electoral Green vote, they will decide if a vote for Denise Roche the Green Central candidate is valid if it means allowing Nikki Kaye back in. The candidate who can argue directly to that core group in Auckland Central will win and National's track record on environmental protection will be the focus for those voters.
I've seen polling for Hamilton West and what is most striking is the large number of don't knows. It will be the election campaign that shapes the final decision, and if the economy continues to tighten that plays to Labour's strengths.
I don't believe in the Labour Meltdown theory that is circulating amongst the right wing meme-o-sphere, that Labour collapse and dip to the low 20's. Goff's position as the underdog going into the debates will surprise viewers when he performs much better than they perceive of him and I don't think predictions handing out wins to National appreciate that this election has a long way to play out yet.
That said, if Goff fails to fire in the debates and Labour can't connect the economic pain to decisions made by John Key that benefit the wealthy, then all bets are off and expect Greens and MANA to pick up a massive protest vote.