- - - - - - - - - - - - -

Monday, August 01, 2011

Why Winston would run in Te Atatu

Goff shuts door on Winston
Labour leader Phil Goff has ruled out any deals to help NZ First leader Winston Peters or any other party to win seats in the November election.

"Labour is not doing deals with anyone. We are not standing aside for any party. We are standing in every electorate."

His comments come after speculation Mr Peters may stand in the Te Atatu seat, where Labour list MP Phil Twyford is the favourite, or stand in another Auckland seat.

NZ First is polling about 2 per cent. On that level of support it would need to win a constituency seat to bring more MPs into the House under MMP's rules.

Mr Goff said Mr Twyford would win the seat.

My guess is that Winston will run in Te Atatu, and here are the 3 reasons why...

1: NZ First has limited resources, the money has to be spent on a mainly Party Vote campaign, but if there was a real chance to win the electorate, better that a clear media field was available rather than elbowing Banksie and David Parker out of the way for the limelight.

2: Chris Carter had 16 459 votes in 2008, Tau Henare had 11 161, the next candidate was the Greens with a mere 1000 votes, this is an electorate without any strong 3rd party candidate.

3: In a three way race between Phil Twyford, Winston Peters and Tau Henare, with the cultural make up, slightly below average wealth and population above 50years, this electorate is ripe for Winston Peter's style of economic sovereignty barnstorming and he could tip Twyford out (National beat Labour for the Party Vote in 2008, they voted for Chris Carter, not the Labour Party) and Tau would get a run for his money.

Even if NZ First came in sub 5%, with an electorate they would still gain representation. My bet would be Winston in Te Atatu.



At 1/8/11 4:19 pm, Blogger mickysavage said...

I don't see how Winston could get the support though Bomber because he is not a westie. He might attract some National support from Tau. I suspect the tories hold their noses when they vote for Tau so Winston is not much worse.

He might get some support from Labour voters but there is a large pacifica and ethnic group in Te Atatu and they would rather gnaw on their fingers than vote Winston.

I agree that the media field is clearer and if he can persuade the media that it is a Winston/Phil campaign then he will attract some attention.

But Phil is putting in a huge effort. He has established a base, held the local organisation together and is doing a lot of doorknocking and telephone canvassing.

I do not think Winston could do it. Mind you we do live in strange times ...

At 1/8/11 5:05 pm, Blogger Bomber said...

You are 1000% right about the effort Phil has put in, but in a 3 way race between Winston, Phil and Tau, I get an awful feeling Phil ain't coming out on top, and Tau would bleed votes to Winston as well - these are indeed strange days

At 1/8/11 9:18 pm, Blogger savehappyvalley said...

Phil has the talent to be a leftgreen - anti capitalist labour party leader. Or at the total least a good MP and parlimentarian. He is solid.

I am not sure Wintson could work with Hone and Te Mana, Labour and the Green Party of Aotearoa.

I think a better idea is Winston going all guns blazing and going for Key or Brash/Banks and standing in either Key's electorate or in Epsom.

At 2/8/11 9:33 am, Blogger Dominic said...

Perhaps NZ First lacks the diplomacy required for MMP this time around:

At 2/8/11 10:50 am, Blogger Shazzadude said...

I wouldn't make the assumption that the Right Honourable Vaovasamanaia Winston Peters is hated by Pasifika now-quite the contrary in fact. With his conservative views he could very well be a far more palatable option for church-going Pacific voters.

At 2/8/11 10:55 am, Blogger Shazzadude said...

Mikcysavage-I wouldn't make the assumption that the Right Honourable Vaovasamanaia is hated by Pasifika at all. Quite the contrary-Winston's something of a celebrity in the Cook Islands, and given his conservatism in an electorate race he could be very appealing to church-going Pacific Islanders.

At 2/8/11 11:17 am, Blogger countryboy said...

Key , Goff , Peters , Banks ... Take a close look ! Closer ... closer... closer ! There ! Spot the differences ? Exactly ! There are none ! They're all Napoleonic , sociopathic power freaks and I wouldn't trust any of them as far as I could throw an anvil and I'm a weedy sort of fellow . Look into their histories . Key is a liar and his 50 million belongs to others . Goff is a soft little right wing sycophant . Peters ! Hahahhahahaha ! Try as he might , those pins strips won't make him taller and cast your minds back to the Wine Box Enquiry . As for Banks ? Banks is a tyrant that's achieved fuck all in reality other than flashing his creepy visage into the television . Honestly , he looks like an aging run away puppet off Thunder Birds Are Go . If you look close enough you can see the strings . Come to think of it ? I wonder who's pulling on them ?


Post a Comment

<< Home