Why Winston would run in Te Atatu
Goff shuts door on Winston
Labour leader Phil Goff has ruled out any deals to help NZ First leader Winston Peters or any other party to win seats in the November election.
"Labour is not doing deals with anyone. We are not standing aside for any party. We are standing in every electorate."
His comments come after speculation Mr Peters may stand in the Te Atatu seat, where Labour list MP Phil Twyford is the favourite, or stand in another Auckland seat.
NZ First is polling about 2 per cent. On that level of support it would need to win a constituency seat to bring more MPs into the House under MMP's rules.
Mr Goff said Mr Twyford would win the seat.
My guess is that Winston will run in Te Atatu, and here are the 3 reasons why...
1: NZ First has limited resources, the money has to be spent on a mainly Party Vote campaign, but if there was a real chance to win the electorate, better that a clear media field was available rather than elbowing Banksie and David Parker out of the way for the limelight.
2: Chris Carter had 16 459 votes in 2008, Tau Henare had 11 161, the next candidate was the Greens with a mere 1000 votes, this is an electorate without any strong 3rd party candidate.
3: In a three way race between Phil Twyford, Winston Peters and Tau Henare, with the cultural make up, slightly below average wealth and population above 50years, this electorate is ripe for Winston Peter's style of economic sovereignty barnstorming and he could tip Twyford out (National beat Labour for the Party Vote in 2008, they voted for Chris Carter, not the Labour Party) and Tau would get a run for his money.
Even if NZ First came in sub 5%, with an electorate they would still gain representation. My bet would be Winston in Te Atatu.