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Monday, August 08, 2011

Mana two tick Maori electorate - one tick general electorate strategy

Mana will contest all Maori seats
Mana Party leader Hone Harawira has thrown down the gauntlet to his former colleagues in the Maori Party, confirming Mana will contest all seven of the Maori seats at the November election. Mr Harawira announced the decision after Mana's first annual meeting in Auckland on Saturday.

I was at the AGM having a sniff around, and it looks increasingly like Mana will be a political waka that takes the aspirations of Maori, minimum wage workers and beneficiaries on board with the top 5 being most likely fleshed out as Hone Harawira, Annette Sykes, John Minto, Sue Bradford and a well known broadcaster.

The two tick Maori electorate - party vote general electorate strategy is to maximize full impact at the election from Mana's distinct voting blocks. I imagine Mana standing in Maori electorates will either end up with Mana winning a couple out right, and causing the rest to vote splinter leaving Labour as the winner, I can't see the Maori Party above holding 1 seat in that calculation.

This matters because every cheap brainfart poll the msm put out has the Maori Party with 4 seats, I just don't see how likely that is with Mana launching.

In the general electorate party vote, Mana will be fielding candidates that will chase the beneficiary and minimum wage vote.

Mana is currently floating around 1% in polls, but seeing as their target audience are notoriously difficult to poll, the goal of 3.5% isn't impossible, especially if economic conditions continue to deteriorate.



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