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Friday, August 19, 2011

How Phil Goff becomes Prime Minister

I'm in Wellington, it's cold. I'm here because I gave a speech to the CTU conference yesterday, it went down like burning an effigy of John Key outside a WINZ office.

I'm off to hear Goff at 10am, the drinking last night went late into the night, me and Matt McCarten were holding court on the benefits of immediate revolution, oh the laughs we had. The most surprising anger of the night wasn't from the delegates or Union members, it was Wellingtonians themselves we met throughout the night, the cooks, the bar staff, the waiters, the punters in the bars, all HATE John Key and all of them are fearful of the economy. It was eye opening how much resentment there is towards National, especially when we get mainstream media biased poll after poll using the failed methodology of David Farrar telling us all that we love John.

Dr Jon Johansson hosted my speech and had fascinating insights into these mainstream media Polls I always slag, he is even more critical than I am! The reality is that this election will not be the cake walk to victory that David Farrar, Cameron Slater, the NZ Herald editorial team, ZB, Radio Live! The Nation, stuff.co.nz etc etc etc all pretend it will be.

I've been arguing for some time that the enormity of this crises of capitalism will make middle NZers not feel middle class for the first time in their lives, that the electorate of poverty will force the political spectrum to splinter, that Mana would re-introduce class as an issue and that the anger by those on the bottom and middle who are bleeding right now is waiting to be tapped once they see how the wealthy are being protected by John Key, just as the Teaparty nutters did in America over the debt ceiling debacle.

When Chris Carter led his failed coup attempt against Phil, I said a the time that it had been a communication breakdown, Phil had told Chris to 'man it up bitch' while Chris thought Phil had said 'bitch it up man', beyond the quip, I argued why Chris was wrong about his assertion that Goff couldn't win, and I'll reassert it now, it's the economy stupid!

The reality is that the economy was always going to turn real nasty just before the November election, Allan Bollard in his book 'crises' points out that the bloody mad Americans had written up a quadrillion in credit default swaps, that's a 1000 Trillion, that doesn't just disappear, it collapses and creates a financial black hole whose event horizon is occurring now as we drop into the double dip recession.

This is a unique crises of capitalism in the same way the 1929 stock market collapse was a unique crises of capitalism, we have ignored the lessons from managed capitalism and now we are going to bear the price for the venal corporate greed and corruption from the right wing that got us here, that Key is attempting more privatization and more free market dogma when it is that ideology that has failed so terribly, is the unfunny joke here.

Phil has every chance of beating Key in the debates, the Karl Rove strategy of attack your enemies weakness is what Crosby Textor recommended to National when they went after Helen Clarks integrity, what is good for the goose is good for the gander, Labour need to attack Key's vacant optimism, his vision less vision, his detached from reality bubble boy world he lives in, hey we would all be as full of hollow aspiration if we all had mansions in Hawaii.

National will have the most votes on election night, but they will have no allies, with ACT in racist meltdown, The Maori Party facing Mana and vote splitting them into oblivion and Peter Dunne being so irrelevant that even his toupee won't respond to his Facebook request, National may well not have any coalition partners to gain a majority.

If John Key's bennie bashing hatred mixed with privatizing the entire continental shelf of NZ is the answer, then you've asked the wrong bloody question.

Sleepy Hobbits reap what they sow but I hope the economic wolf at their door will wake them from their slumber.



At 19/8/11 9:22 am, Blogger Rich said...

Yeah, but the delay before the current problems hit NZ is too big.

The sort of things that will hit us are:
- banks unable to finance loans, sending fixed mortgage rates up, even if you can get a loan in the first place: 3-6 months away.
- problems with government borrowing - not before next year, remember they've overborrowed and have a buffer.
- slump in demand for Chinese consumer goods, sending Chinese economy into a slump, causing a commodity price crash and bankrupting the Aussie banks: 2-4 years away.

None of that is in time to save Goff.

At 19/8/11 9:25 am, Blogger Nightwyrm said...

I'm just not sure Phil has the chops to pull it off any more. His attacks on Key and National come across like Brash's -- all blustery and lacking substance. In fact, some of the more junior members of Labour do a better job of picking apart National's politics and they sound credible.

If Labour want to stand out and start impressing people again, they need to actually start acting like an opposition party. That means properly going on the offensive against bills they disagree with and attempting to defeat them in Parliament. I for one am sick of hearing Labour MPs telling us what's wrong with a bill and how much they disagree with it, then voting for it anyway.

At 19/8/11 7:22 pm, Blogger Nitrium said...

Bomber you're clearly not yet caught up in John Key's Reality Distortion Field, so there must be something seriously wrong with you. I suggest you check yourself into a National Party indoctrination therapy clinic ASAP or you will end up as a pariah. Living in NZ right now reminds me of Invasion of the Body Snatchers.

At 20/8/11 6:38 pm, Blogger Tar and Feather The Bastards said...

I'm a white NZ male ( not a hobbit) and I've given up on the Greens and their continued lack of testosterone !! At present Labours still basicly "national lite" as far as I'm concerned so I'll be voting Mana and talking to all my daughters friends - most in low wage deadend jobs 22 to 29 and getting them to REGISTER. And once thats done getting them to vote Mana too. labour will get their usual support - give or take - but will need a large support party. Mana, with 6 seats or more(?? Not impossible)to provide the spine, get them dragged back to your core values. . . Labour could end up sharing equal billing with Mana and the Greens


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