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Friday, July 08, 2011

John Armstrong is as relevant to political punditry as Alasdair Thompson is to gender equality

Survey: Seven-seat margin on cards for Nats
National would be able to govern alone with a relatively comfortable seven-seat majority if the results of a Herald-compiled Poll of Polls are duplicated on election day in November.

He can't be serious? Armstrong is calling it a 7 seat victory to the National Party based on these bullshit cheap brainfart telephone polls that his NZ Herald are addicted to EVEN THOUGH the methodology is failing in a recession this steep and producing bullshit NZ Herald Digi Polls like the one that claimed Len Brown and John Banks were neck and neck, or the Te Tai Tokerau by-election where the same failed methodology claimed Hone was only ahead by 1% when in reality he ended up over 9% ahead.

After such an appalling mis-call like Te Tai Tokerau for the entire mainstream media punditry, Armstrong now wants to convince us his powers of oracle are still capable of being taken seriously by jumping to some extraordinary conclusions which aren't supported at all.

Armstrong comes off sounding as out of touch as Alasdair Thompson with the following ridiculous assumptions:

1: The assumption the Maori Party will retain 4 seats - this is so unlikely it is embarrassing that Armstrong is being serious here. The Maori Party will be lucky to have 2 seats if any.

2: The assumption that Mana will only get one electoral seat and no extra MP's with the party vote is another example of Armstrong being so far out of the loop he's orbiting Jupiter. Mana has a very good chance at bringing in an extra 4 MP's and Armstrong's denial of that seems more desperate anti-Hone crap than real strategic thinking.

3: The assumption that Peter Dunne will retain his seat in an electorate with more public servants than any other is simply not believable. Voters know a vote for Dunne is a vote for National and a vote for National is a vote for more public service cutbacks. Dunne is toast in Ohariu.

Armstrong's column would perhaps have to be the worst example of mainstream media hubris I've seen to date, bullshit assumptions that bear little resemblance to what is happening on the ground mixed with desperation seems to have been what has fuelled this joke column.

The bias from the mainstream corporate media is astounding.



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