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Monday, July 18, 2011

I don't believe most news from TVNZ, why would I believe their political polls?



Key: Public rejecting Labour tax plan
A new poll revealing Labour with only 27 per cent support shows the public are rejecting the opposition's new tax policy, Prime Minister John Key says.

The One News Colmar-Brunton had Labour dropping seven points from its 34 per cent support in May.

It was taken from July 9 to 13 - after news of the proposed capital gains tax leaked out, but before the detailed package was announced last week.


How easily led are the sleepy Hobbits of NZ? Depressingly easily.

I don't believe what TVNZ has to say on most topics on any given day, so why in Christ's name would I believe their latest cheap brainfart telephone poll pretending that John Key has almost 10 000% support? Why would I put any faith in a news station that was at one point giving on the hour updates on Happy fucking Feet?

The mainstream media are so biased towards the National Party that John Key could punch a puppy in the face live on Close Up, and the Herald editorial the next day would criticize the puppy for flinching.

These cheap brainfart telephone polls are using a deeply flawed methodology which in a recession as steep as this are not measuring the opinions of poor in any way shape or form and as such are giving biased results not worth the breathless attention the mainstream media heap upon them.

Remember the Len Brown and John Banks Auckland Mayoralty race last year? 'Neck and neck' is what the NZ Herald screamed...

Poll shock: It's neck and neck
Len Brown: 29.6 per cent
John Banks: 28.7 per cent

The race for the Super City mayoralty is going down to the wire - Manukau Mayor Len Brown and Auckland City Mayor John Banks are almost tied in the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey.

...and what happened in that race? It was a God damned lenslide to Len Brown. Using the exact same failed and flawed methodology of these cheap telephone polls, the Herald claimed Brown and Banks were neck and neck. You'll note the msm never mention these results when proclaiming the latest ones.

What about the Te Tai Tokerau? Remember the very same flawed telephone polls declaring that Hone was only ahead by 1% that the mainstream media parroted? How much did Hone end up winning by? Over 9%!

For the love of Christ folks, TVNZ's own Political Reporter Guyon Espiner called Te Tai Tokerau for Kelvin, and Kelvin ended up losing by over 9%, why believe a damned word of what he has to say now?

These polls are deeply flawed, not simply because they rely on telephone land lines in a cell phone world, but because they never include the 'don't knows' of the swing voters and they use weighting that is never disclosed. All of which adds up to a system as good as predicting raptures as it is at predicting elections.

We are to believe from this TVNZ Poll that the Maori Party after getting crucified in Te Tai Tokerau have suddenly managed to almost double their Party vote in the last month? Really? Only Dr Pita Sharples on a large amount of acid would believe that!

Take Auckland as an example, 35% of households in Mangere and other south Auckland electorate's have landlines, 50% in Mt Albert and other isthmus electorates have landlines, close to 80% in most North Shore electorates have landlines. A decade ago those differences were less than 10% and all electorates had the majority of people on listed landlines, now they don't and you can easily see by that breakdown in Auckland alone how biased these cheap brainfart telephone polls can be

The mainstream media are using these cheap telephone polls not to reflect public opinion, but to manipulate it.

What Labour need to do is reach out to the 200 000 labour party voters who didn't bother voting in 2008 making it one of the lowest voter turn outs on record. Their range of policy that strengthens social equality I think does reach out to that groups principles and cheap brainfart telephone polls don't easily sway me. Dunne will lose his seat, Mana will eliminate the Maori Party and ACT are on the verge of a meltdown, National will have the most votes on the night, but they won't have the coalition partners to form a majority, and it is who is able to form the majority that will decide the Government.

Don't believe the mainstream media hype, this election will be far closer than they are pretending.

Hold the line.

UPDATE: Just found out from TVNZ that in their latest Poll proclaiming the end of the world for Labour ACTUALLY HAD 14% undecided! Pfft, the Poll is a joke


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7 Comments:

At 18/7/11 3:48 pm, Blogger Wake Up Blog said...

What is of most concern is not that the MSM cannot operate with integrity, but they will not, so long as they remain embedded in a system that promises them an orgy of fame/money/power - or at the very least to mix and mingle with that sector. Once you've seen the doco The Inside Job you'll never forget that corruption is alive and kicking in NZ.

 
At 18/7/11 3:56 pm, Blogger stoner said...

Although it was fuking depressing- i for one dont believe in these fukd up polls either--

i mean WHO and what areas are these conducted in

snobville? areas like Remmers,parnell mission bay,etc etc

The left shouldnt listen to this shit-just keep getting the message out

 
At 18/7/11 4:33 pm, Blogger AAMC said...

Catch is, however accurate they are or are not, they become self fulfilling prophecy. Most people who aren't passionate about and don't follow politics and our decline into Oligarchy, want desperately to believe they live in a functioning democracy with a functioning fourth estate. They just don't want to have to engage in it.

And so, for the majority, they feel the writing is on the wall and they believe Goff is useless cause the news told them so.

Right... I'm off to find a big rock to crawl under, I can't stand living in this country any longer, it's just there don't seem to be any better options.

 
At 18/7/11 7:01 pm, Blogger Arto said...

Yep the whole idea of these fake polls is to make the great underclass think that it's not worth voting cos it's a waste of time....

All we need to do is get out and vote on the day...

 
At 18/7/11 8:30 pm, Blogger Nitrium said...

Let's be honest. National/Key WILL win the election. Goff does not have the finesse of Key's smile and wave routine. Further, it is very unusual to have a single term Government. The MSM is just going with what they think sells - they are all at the end of the day just FOR PROFIT businesses. When the majority of NZers are centre-right, they run with centre-right viewpoints, when it's centre-left they are centre-left. Why? Because they need to appeal to the MAJORITY. The fact they are currently leaning centre-right, strongly suggests that this is indeed what most people want at the moment.

 
At 18/7/11 10:39 pm, Blogger slydixon said...

I'll lay odds its a one off result though as the Captial Gains Tax debate is getting labour better press than its had for years and Goff who I've never liked as a politician is looking a lot more likely than he hever has. Keep the faith.

 
At 18/7/11 10:53 pm, Blogger Frank said...

Arto - indeed. All we have to do is get ONE extra person out on voting day, and that effectively DOUBLES the left's vote.

And as Bomber has said, I'm not terribly fussed about the accuracy of these polls either.

Having said that, though, it just means we have to work our collective arses off to get a good result on November 26.

'Cos in the final analysis, the Nats are shit-scared of the Left.

A quick squizz at Trade Me's messageboards - happily colonised by rightwing nutjobs, and like most bird colonies, shitting all over the place - reveals that the rightwingers are not happy puppies. (Nor Hapy Feet, nor Happy anything.)

This election, our household WILL be putting billboards on our property; handing out leaflets; and trying to get a few extra bodies into the Polling Booths.

 

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