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Monday, June 20, 2011

What a Mana win means this week



The political mainstream media are sweating the Te Tai Tokerau by-election because beyond the massive ramifications a Mana win would create (I'll get into those in a moment) the mainstream media's reputation is what is on the line now and as the likelihood of their much vaunted 'neck and neck' claim between Hone and Kelvin increasingly looks less and less likely, watch the mainstream media start to backpedal as furiously as Audrey Young does today.

Whose reputation is on the block? The reputation of the entire NZ Herald (3 anti Hone editorials in 2 weeks - unprecedented), Stuff.co.nz and their blatant misquote of Hone to pretend that he supported Osama Bin Laden, Duncan Garner and Patrick Gower who have called it for Kelvin and most importantly the reputation of the entire mainstream media punditry who have relied on the brainfart cheap telephone opinion polls that were so wrong when they claimed Len Brown and John Banks were 'neck and neck'. The methodology of these cheap telephone polls do not work in a recession as steep as this and Government pollster propagandist David Farrar should lose his vaunted unchallenged position as a NZ Herald columnist.

A Mana win would over throw all of those pundits and the reliance on these cheap brainfart polls which keep predicting over 50% support for John Key and the National Party Government. Another slap down of the supposed 'neck and neck' bullshit will be a difficult shit sandwich for them all to swallow but swallow it they all must and please do expect a long list of people I'll be offering bites to.

A very long personalized list.

You really thought the people involved behind Mana were in this to lose it? 7 Days, the Jonno Show, Hone's excellent on ground machine that puts the Labour Party and their depleted funds to shame and Hone's incredible performance after incredible performance on each of the debates was going to be relegated to neck and neck was it?

Pffft.

Maui Street has the best breakdown and the mainstream media pundits who have all mindlessly chirped 'neck and neck' will be kicking themselves that they didn't read it first.

What the mainstream political pundits have all missed in their rush to denigrate Hone is the genuine support and energy behind Mana and they don't understand that support and energy because it is class based and the dumbing down of mainstream media doesn't have the intellectual tools to be able to articulate class or ideology. As I understand it, no political reporter is even allowed to mention 'ideology' during prime time TV viewership as News Producers believe the word will have all viewers running off to the E channel.

The political spectrum has splintered as it did in the 1930's because we face the largest economic crises of capitalism since the 1929 stock market collapse. Free Market Economic uber allas doesn't work, yet this Government's plan to adopt more failed free market policy to attempt to address the global economic crises caused by the very same Milton Friedman free market dogma is the very definition of insanity. In such times citizens question the over all political pre-suppositions and find them sorely lacking, that is evident from the latest bout of consumer depression.

Winners and losers if Mana win:
Winners:

Mana wins the battle and move closer to winning the war as they gain the potential of taking 3.5% of the vote and gaining sub 5% threshold representation via Hone's seat, which means they could change the Parliamentary math enabling a left wing Government over a right wing Government. Expect some strong candidates to fill out the top 5 positions of the party list.

Labour win if they lose, rather than just gaining an electorate seat, they gain a larger left wing voting block that provides the narrative of how Phil Goff wins. This will be the most important change for Labour supporters.

Maori, beneficiaries and minimum wage workers win because finally their aspirations get voice at the tables of power where their aspirations are normally drowned.

Auckland wins as many of those in the top 5 Mana list will have strong Auckland identification.


Losers
The mainstream media and mainstream media pundits who have trashed Mana from day one and the methodology of these brainfart opinion polls will get a credibility scorching which will put a dent into the smile and wave certainty of the current Government.

The political right wing who will now see for the first time after MMP number crunching, the first clear narrative of how they lose the Parliamentary majority.

The Maori Party who will be seen as a spent political force with a no show at the ballot box. That no show could fuel real change in the other Maori electorates and Labour could take those seats back.

The Greens. By zigging when they were supposed to zag, the Greens have become the biggest political risk factor now they say they can cut a deal with John Key if the price is Green enough. 9 years in the political wilderness has created a frustration to be in the Cabinet that has all the possibility of being punished as the Auckland voters and left voters of the Party leave what is increasingly a watered down lime colored Green Party who have chosen Blue + Green to hunt the mythical right wing environmental vote. If the bloody Greens dip below 5% they will have only themselves to blame. Seeing as Mana want the entire Green Party platform adopted as part of Mana's price in a supply and confidence arrangement, the Greens could turn out to be their own worst enemy. God forbid that the Greens become the new Maori Party and provide Key with the moderation camouflage that the Maori Party currently provide him with and actually cut a deal post the election. After lining everything up to make real progressive change possible in NZ, it's the bloody Greens who are now the problem.

NZ First - with all the political oxygen being sucked out of this debate with Hone and Don, I doubt NZ First will have any role to play other than to suck away more wasted National Party votes and fall short of the 5% threshold, which when you consider Winston's role in shutting out the Greens and Left in holding the balance of power in the past is a fitting end to him.


Of course Mana could lose and all of this becomes moot, in that case I don't see how the National Government can be beaten at the November election, however my sources on the ground in the electorate are telling a very different story to the one that the mainstream media are relying on.

As I pointed out in November 2010 when I predicted this on TVNZ7's backbencher show last year, every progressive voter should consider the genuine structural change a Labour-Green-Mana Party could enable as a political block.

Tumeke hopes to make a call on the by-election result about 30minutes after the Polls close.

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24 Comments:

At 20/6/11 9:59 am, Blogger Christopher O'Connor said...

It's a shame that the picture discredits Malcolm X by simulating some kind of common ground between Hone an Malcolm.
Malcolm by all accounts, wasn't a crack pot.

 
At 20/6/11 11:52 am, Blogger vortex said...

chris its just a different haircut - the underpinning issue is the same. if you knew anything about making a change in human societies often you have to upset the equilibrium to get change especially when inequality is deeply entrenched. they shot the man isn't that enough to say he was making huge waves, different, challenging or if you like crazy?? c,mon man look at history with two eyes and use your brains not your heart buddy.

 
At 20/6/11 1:04 pm, Blogger Anna said...

Oh dear, Christopher. Malcolm X was one of the most hated figures when he was alive. His uncompromising stance, intellect, fight racism with racism approach saw him unfavourably compared, always, with the more moderate Martin Luther King. It is only in retrospect that Malcolm has been appreciated. I suspect Hone Harawira has more in common with Malcolm X than wishful thinking revisionists like yourself would ever admit too. You'd have to take your hate-filled goggles off and that might be a bridge too far.

 
At 20/6/11 1:08 pm, Blogger Anna said...

Oh dear, Christopher O'Connor. Malcolm X was one of the most hated figures of his generation when he was alive. His uncompromising attitude, direct confrontational approach to fighting racism with racism and his intellect saw him, always, unfavourably compared with the more moderate Martin Luther King. It is only in retrospect that Malcom X has been afforded the dignity and respect he thoroughly deserved. I would say that Hone Harawira has much in common with Malcolm X. Unfortunately, revisionists, such as yourself, would have to take off your hate-filled, self-serving and biased goggles to see it.

 
At 20/6/11 1:36 pm, Blogger Christopher O'Connor said...

It's ironic that your discription, describes Hone to a T.
A revisionist with hate filled, self-serving and biased goggles

I must remember that one, thanks.

 
At 20/6/11 1:52 pm, Blogger CrownRetro said...

Christopher, you like the mainstream would have hated Malcom X then, just like you and the mainstream hate Hone now.

 
At 20/6/11 1:56 pm, Blogger bsprout said...

Good lord, the Greens are close to propping up a National Government and are now chasing the blue vote? Perhaps my experience of the Green's AGM where all members present were debating over extremely or hugely unlikely to describe this possibility, was a figment of my imagination. Which of our key policies have lurched dramatically to the right to support your assumptions? I'm sorry Bomber, but these views are just fanciful flights of imagination.

 
At 20/6/11 6:56 pm, Blogger AAMC said...

"Christopher O'Connor said...

It's ironic that your discription, describes Hone to a T.
A revisionist with hate filled, self-serving and biased goggles
I must remember that one, thanks."

I just had to post that again, you're own assertions discredit you sufficiently enough, all I need to add is a suggestion that you read some history.

 
At 20/6/11 7:29 pm, Blogger John said...

Malcolm X famously came to an agreement with the american nazi party to split the US in half with the black's taking one coast the white's the other. There is a famous photo showing Malcolm speaking to an audience with members of the Nazi party in uniform taking up the front row.

I hope Hone is better able to deal with racial tension than Malcolm.

 
At 20/6/11 8:13 pm, Blogger James said...

Hones a racist scumbag....and he's out and proud.

If anyone in NZ is comparable to the ideals and ethos of Martian Luther King its....Don Brash.

Now lets here ya squeal like pigs over that one boys. ;-)

 
At 20/6/11 10:14 pm, Blogger Phil said...

I will reserve judgement until Saturday night and we will see who is correct. Is Bombers analysis right? Watch this space. What fun!

 
At 20/6/11 10:26 pm, Blogger alex said...

The Greens will not go with National, the membership would never allow it. They are the one truly democratic party, and would never take a course of action that hasn't been debated and voted on by the members.
With Mana you get an independent voice.
With the Greens you get an independent voice and constructive workers. You shouldn't punish them for competency.

 
At 20/6/11 10:56 pm, Blogger Liberate Aotearoa said...

Squeal! and I'm a proud Pakeha who has no problem in endorsing Mana Party values and principles. Hone's the messenger and doing a wonderful job. As for Don Brash ... seriously he's a geriatric who's going to snuff it soon and leave the redneck community in a lurch; what then? Like he did to his faithful wife he will betray his racist cronies from beyond the grave. Oh James are you saying you will step up to the plate when that time comes? Please Don and Keys coalition?!? Oh I get it the Donkey Party and all its supporters are ass's ... Not a good look at all wouldn't you think?

 
At 20/6/11 11:31 pm, Blogger CrownRetro said...

John, bullshit. Or show the source of your "famous" agreement. All I know is Malcom X telegramed the Act party, stating:

"This is to warn you that I am no longer held in check from fighting white supremacists by Elijah Muhammad's separatist Black Muslim movement, and that if your present racist agitation against our people there in Alabama causes physical harm to Reverend King or any other black Americans who are only attempting to enjoy their rights as free human beings, that you and your Ku Klux Klan friends will be met with maximum physical retaliation from those of us who are not hand-cuffed by the disarming philosophy of nonviolence, and who believe in asserting our right of self-defense -- by any means necessary."

Ie., you touch my brothers & sisters, i'll kick your ass, bigot.

As for you, James, it's fitting you express a line from Deliverance. C'mon, you love that line, no?

 
At 21/6/11 4:14 am, Blogger Christopher O'Connor said...

Mr. X taught black supremacy and advocated the separation of black and white, any compliment about him was tongue in cheek, good to see you biting.

In all honesty, they are both close to being equal with their 'crack pot' racist mentalities.

 
At 21/6/11 11:39 am, Blogger CrownRetro said...

At first, it reads very much like you were being sincere, Christopher O'Conner. But your last little highlight proves you were being tongue & cheek? Pathetic.

And show me where Hone & Maclcom advocates/ed seperatism, this idiotic lie the ignorant, scared Brashian mob keeps vomiting?

 
At 21/6/11 1:10 pm, Blogger JonL said...

If Hone DOESN'T get in, there will be egg on a lot of faces.......

 
At 21/6/11 2:20 pm, Blogger Nga said...

Chris OConnor .... dumbass taurekareka nanakia pokokohua!

 
At 21/6/11 3:47 pm, Blogger Max D Coyle said...

Interesting post apart from your continued flight of fancy with denigrating the greens with no basis it was almost well written. Bsprouts right, I was also at the AGM where all members present were debating over extremely or hugely unlikely to describe this possibility, and it was no figment. The policies haven't changed and the only thing that has is your view on a party which supports a lot of your ideals Bomber and has given a strong voice to them in parliament. Unfortunately like Malcolm X people that should have been supporting a struggle are sometimes blinded by the lies they tell themselves.

 
At 21/6/11 5:33 pm, Blogger AAMC said...

I can't speak for Bomber, but I've been reading his posts about the Green's as being a challenge! Step up and proclaim your beliefs and your policy.

Even alluding to the potential to support National, however fanciful it might be, seems a little strange at this particular moment in History.

If ever there was a time that the Greens could write the narrative, the current financial and environmental climate surely provides it. And saying you could possibly work with the Tories when plainly you couldn't, seems a counterproductive strategy.

I for one would re consider what has been my consistent Green vote if I thought there was any prospect of that vote propping up a national Government. If that isn't your intention, then why stand up in the media and say you'd consider it? Shouldn't political messages be clear?

 
At 21/6/11 10:58 pm, Blogger Anthony said...

I'm not sure David Farrar would be discredited by a Hone win as I haven't seen him predicting that Hone won't win. Attacking Hone is not the same as thinking he won't win. I'm an Act supporter yet I think Hone will win and have a fair bit of money on iPredict on him winning!

 
At 4/7/11 11:02 pm, Blogger snapper said...

Christopher,unfortunately pakehas like you who resort to name calling are just showing your pakeha ignorance because you have no rational debate.Please dont waste everyones time pakeha.

 
At 5/7/11 10:05 am, Blogger The Heartland Party of New Zealand blog said...

That's the kind of reply one would expect from your " CRACK POT " separatist leader, good on ya.

 
At 5/7/11 10:09 am, Blogger The Heartland Party of New Zealand blog said...

That's exactly the kind of statement that would be expected to come from your "CRACK POT" separatist leader, good on ya snapper.

 

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