What a Mana win means this week

The political mainstream media are sweating the Te Tai Tokerau by-election because beyond the massive ramifications a Mana win would create (I'll get into those in a moment) the mainstream media's reputation is what is on the line now and as the likelihood of their much vaunted 'neck and neck' claim between Hone and Kelvin increasingly looks less and less likely, watch the mainstream media start to backpedal as furiously as Audrey Young does today.

Whose reputation is on the block? The reputation of the entire NZ Herald (3 anti Hone editorials in 2 weeks - unprecedented), Stuff.co.nz and their blatant misquote of Hone to pretend that he supported Osama Bin Laden, Duncan Garner and Patrick Gower who have called it for Kelvin and most importantly the reputation of the entire mainstream media punditry who have relied on the brainfart cheap telephone opinion polls that were so wrong when they claimed Len Brown and John Banks were 'neck and neck'. The methodology of these cheap telephone polls do not work in a recession as steep as this and Government pollster propagandist David Farrar should lose his vaunted unchallenged position as a NZ Herald columnist.

A Mana win would over throw all of those pundits and the reliance on these cheap brainfart polls which keep predicting over 50% support for John Key and the National Party Government. Another slap down of the supposed 'neck and neck' bullshit will be a difficult shit sandwich for them all to swallow but swallow it they all must and please do expect a long list of people I'll be offering bites to.

A very long personalized list.

You really thought the people involved behind Mana were in this to lose it? 7 Days, the Jonno Show, Hone's excellent on ground machine that puts the Labour Party and their depleted funds to shame and Hone's incredible performance after incredible performance on each of the debates was going to be relegated to neck and neck was it?

Pffft.

Maui Street has the best breakdown and the mainstream media pundits who have all mindlessly chirped 'neck and neck' will be kicking themselves that they didn't read it first.

What the mainstream political pundits have all missed in their rush to denigrate Hone is the genuine support and energy behind Mana and they don't understand that support and energy because it is class based and the dumbing down of mainstream media doesn't have the intellectual tools to be able to articulate class or ideology. As I understand it, no political reporter is even allowed to mention 'ideology' during prime time TV viewership as News Producers believe the word will have all viewers running off to the E channel.

The political spectrum has splintered as it did in the 1930's because we face the largest economic crises of capitalism since the 1929 stock market collapse. Free Market Economic uber allas doesn't work, yet this Government's plan to adopt more failed free market policy to attempt to address the global economic crises caused by the very same Milton Friedman free market dogma is the very definition of insanity. In such times citizens question the over all political pre-suppositions and find them sorely lacking, that is evident from the latest bout of consumer depression.

Winners and losers if Mana win:
Winners:
Mana wins the battle and move closer to winning the war as they gain the potential of taking 3.5% of the vote and gaining sub 5% threshold representation via Hone's seat, which means they could change the Parliamentary math enabling a left wing Government over a right wing Government. Expect some strong candidates to fill out the top 5 positions of the party list.

Labour win if they lose, rather than just gaining an electorate seat, they gain a larger left wing voting block that provides the narrative of how Phil Goff wins. This will be the most important change for Labour supporters.

Maori, beneficiaries and minimum wage workers win because finally their aspirations get voice at the tables of power where their aspirations are normally drowned.

Auckland wins as many of those in the top 5 Mana list will have strong Auckland identification.

Losers
The mainstream media and mainstream media pundits who have trashed Mana from day one and the methodology of these brainfart opinion polls will get a credibility scorching which will put a dent into the smile and wave certainty of the current Government.

The political right wing who will now see for the first time after MMP number crunching, the first clear narrative of how they lose the Parliamentary majority.

The Maori Party who will be seen as a spent political force with a no show at the ballot box. That no show could fuel real change in the other Maori electorates and Labour could take those seats back.

The Greens. By zigging when they were supposed to zag, the Greens have become the biggest political risk factor now they say they can cut a deal with John Key if the price is Green enough. 9 years in the political wilderness has created a frustration to be in the Cabinet that has all the possibility of being punished as the Auckland voters and left voters of the Party leave what is increasingly a watered down lime colored Green Party who have chosen Blue + Green to hunt the mythical right wing environmental vote. If the bloody Greens dip below 5% they will have only themselves to blame. Seeing as Mana want the entire Green Party platform adopted as part of Mana's price in a supply and confidence arrangement, the Greens could turn out to be their own worst enemy. God forbid that the Greens become the new Maori Party and provide Key with the moderation camouflage that the Maori Party currently provide him with and actually cut a deal post the election. After lining everything up to make real progressive change possible in NZ, it's the bloody Greens who are now the problem.

NZ First - with all the political oxygen being sucked out of this debate with Hone and Don, I doubt NZ First will have any role to play other than to suck away more wasted National Party votes and fall short of the 5% threshold, which when you consider Winston's role in shutting out the Greens and Left in holding the balance of power in the past is a fitting end to him.

Of course Mana could lose and all of this becomes moot, in that case I don't see how the National Government can be beaten at the November election, however my sources on the ground in the electorate are telling a very different story to the one that the mainstream media are relying on.

As I pointed out in November 2010 when I predicted this on TVNZ7's backbencher show last year, every progressive voter should consider the genuine structural change a Labour-Green-Mana Party could enable as a political block.

Tumeke hopes to make a call on the by-election result about 30minutes after the Polls close.

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