Te Tai Tokerau by-election: results [UPDATED: Hone Wins]

@7:30
@7:45pm
Harawira (Mana) 2,773
Davis (Labour) 2,526
Tipene (Maori) 559
Herbert (ALCP) 64
Alp (OUR) 28
Informal 14
TOTAL: 5964

@7:47pm
Harawira (Mana) 3,493 (47.4%)
Davis (Labour) 3,072 (41.6%)
Tipene (Maori) 672 (9.1%)
Herbert (ALCP) 81 (1.1%)
Alp (OUR) 37 (0.5%)
Informal 19 (0.3%)
TOTAL: 7,374 (100%)

TUMEKE! PROJECTING: Hone Harawira WIN
But the big booths in West Auckland probably haven't come in yet, so I'm not so confident the majority for Hone will be as big as I predicted last night. Depending on how big the booths are the turnout may be at the high side of my estimate (the weather was much better than forecast - let's see if I can do better than the meteorologists).

@7:55pm 112 of 134 polling stations
Harawira (Mana) 4,258 (47.2%)
Davis (Labour) 3,745 (41.5%)
Tipene (Maori) 841 (9.3%)
Herbert (ALCP) 104 (1.2%)
Alp (OUR) 46 (0.5%)
Informal 24 (0.3%)
TOTAL: 9,018 (100%)

@8:15pm 130 of 134 polling stations
Harawira (Mana) 5,300 (48.0%)
Davis (Labour) 4,528 (41.0%)
Tipene (Maori) 1,002 (9.1%)
Herbert (ALCP) 122 (1.1%)
Alp (OUR) 58 (0.5%)
Informal 33 (0.3%)
TOTAL: 11,043 (100%)

@8:30pm Stalled at 132 of 134 booths - not sure how big the booths are - it may crack 12,000 turnout tonight, and with 1,854 specials to count that's close to where I thought it would be in last night's post:

the total may only be around 12,000 - 14,000, maybe less. I would say the % vote is stacking up: Harawira 55%, Davis 35% Tipene 10%.

Kelvin did better than I thought. Amazing what you can achieve with all the Labour MPs and their parliamentary services budgets and resources in tow, eh. As for Tipene. Ouch. Even worse than my 10% pick - not even into double figures, not even. They are at a low ebb at this point - destroyed and disheartened by this suicide stunt - and as I said earlier, now is the moment that Mana has to put the boot into what is left of the Maori Party.

Matt McCarten has addressed the troops and Hone is now giving a victory speech. Bravo Mana Party, they deserve this win - they have earned it.

@9:00pm 134 of 134 polling stations
Harawira (Mana) 5,611 (48.3%)
Davis (Labour) 4,744 (40.9%)
Tipene (Maori) 1,026 (8.8%)
Herbert (ALCP) 126 (1.1%)
Alp (OUR) 63 (0.5%)
Informal 36 (0.3%)
TOTAL: 11,606 (100%)
+ SPECIALS: 1,916

Majority Harawira: 867

Turnout 11,606 + 1,916 = 13,522 / 32,193 = 42%.
Hone was on TV3 at 10:30pm and was wanting to talk with Pita and Tariana about re-establishing a relationship. On Mana's terms one would hope - things have changed and Tipene's sub double figure showing is the writing on the wall for the Maori Party. When they crossed to Kawakawa at the Labour Party do Phil Goff and Kelvin Davis were standing next to one another - Goff in front. Campbell asked Goff a question and off he went. Kelvin stood there like the mannequin he is, speechless. It was a good few minutes before Kelvin - the one who was actually in the election - got a word in. It was so embarrassing to see his mana stamped all over by Goff. Compare that to Hone being his own man and now a leader of a parliamentary party - what a difference.