Tai Tokerau by-election - campaign ends

The Electoral Commission registered the Mana Party today, meaning party leadership status and all that flows from it should Hone win tomorrow. The timing doesn't get any closer and it should be acknowledged that the Mana organisation that has come about in the four months since Hone was forced to part company with the Maori Party has done a great job to be in this position.

What a short, but sharp by-election campaign. Firstly for a while it looked like there wouldn't be any then the Maori Party in a fit of pique reneged on their deal with him and said they would stand someone, then Labour said they would stand - so that was the Maori Party relegated to third place from day one. Then just a few days ago, in view of the finish line, Tariana knee-capped her own Maori Party candidate. To add to the confusion the Tory PM said he was backing the Labour candidate. !? I heard Barry Soper on Prime news tonight picking Kelvin Davis will take it (an astounding prediction). Hone has a lot of powerful haters. The only people who like Hone... are the people.

2008 result:
Harawira 12,019
Davis 5,711
Daniels 788
Tashkoff 680
Rankin 202
Informal 530
TOTAL 19,930

Given the apalling rain forecast for all of tomorrow in the "winterless" North the turnout will be down. Despite the focus of publicity and the novelty of it, a long trip into town in the rain will dampen things. Based on the 2008 results as above, the lower turnout at a by-election and the bad weather the total may only be around 12,000 - 14,000, maybe less. I would say the % vote is stacking up: Harawira 55%, Davis 35% Tipene 10%.

Here are some Mana branch panui coming in on the networks. The organisation will be hard at work from early tomorrow.


The official Election Results:
Targets for release of the preliminary election results are:
● by 7.30pm all advance vote results
● by 9.00pm results from 50% of polling places
● by 10.00pm results from 100% of polling places