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Friday, June 10, 2011

No surprises in new political poll



With Labour up it's highest and National down it's lowest, for me, there are no real surprises in this new Roy Morgan Poll, I don't for one second believe this election is the sleepwalk to victory that the right seem to believe it will be and that the result will be much, much closer. As the economy continues to nose dive, NZers will want answers not vacant smiles and empty waves and their economic arguments for selling assets and forcing solo mothers back to work after the kid turns one seem disconnected from evidence based ideas to ideological brainfarts.

The Greens decision to self mutilate themselves by mandating a discussion with John Key could come back to bite them hard if left wing supporters are not convinced Russell won't cut some type of deal with Key and support dips below 5%. Have the Greens zigged when they should have zagged again?

The fact is that the Green's decision is a stupid strategy. Even if the mythical right wing green voter DOES come to them in droves, those voters will have an expectation that the Greens actually talk to John Key, and he will slither over and whisper his sweet, sweet promises while publicly stating his preference to go Green so as to avoid 100% asset sales if he goes with ACT - the pressure to cut a deal under those circumstances will be immense and National will replace the Maori Party moderation camouflage with the Green Party moderation camouflage - even if the plan works they are screwed. I'm pretty sure Mana wants EVERYTHING the Greens have as policy implemented as a precondition to giving Labour supply and confidence - it's not like I have any desire to attack the Greens, I believe everything the Greens stand for and this is the lefts best opportunity in a decade to take the agenda to where it needs to be, but the Greens lack of political awareness is astounding.

What is funny has been the media coverage of this poll.

Why doesn't the new Poll showing Labour up and National down by their largest levels barely feature on the NZ Herald website? Are the NZ Herald seriously suggesting teachers teaching Maori, Jim Hopkins (only in the South Island do they think red rimmed glasses = wit), more media speculation speculating on their Darren Hughes speculation, and to show 'balance' something dredged up about David Garrett are MORE important than the largest shift in political opinion in almost 3 years?

When it's National ahead by 60% the Herald can't find font big enough, the largest change in political opinion since the election, not a peep.

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3 Comments:

At 10/6/11 3:00 pm, Blogger jane said...

Bomber, NZ Herald's editorial about Simon Power's dilligent and unbiased input into the stink copyright law, which it says is "ONLY FAIR",(yeah right) says it all. I have bought NZ Herald at times because it is a durable backup for the cat litter but now I see your point. Bad format, twee humorous comment and parochial non-news is making it a bad investment, especially as the cat is now getting big enough to go outside.

 
At 10/6/11 4:36 pm, Blogger Master said...

Why is this particular Roy Morgan poll not drawing your usual cries of "Coverage errors! Anti-cellphone Bias! etc etc"

You're not even trying anymore are you?

 
At 10/6/11 10:38 pm, Blogger slydixon said...

It is a bit weird this anti Green thing. You talk as if there are only three or four totally entrenched political views. The fact is that a vast number of people decide to vote on the most spurious of reasons. I know people who go from Act to Green Party and all in between on the flimsiest of reasons. Someone says the right thing at the right time and tick they get their vote
The Green lurch to the right you describe is actually the twang back toward centre left after the stepping off of Sue Bradford who was clearly more of a hammer and sickle type than a tree hugger. What I don't understand is the vitriol from you. Surely this potentially strengthens the left by moving the People's Flag mob to Mana and picking up a few recycling Remuera Mums to the Greens. Still you attempt to ice pick Russell Norman and ensure that the voter base never grows a jot! Got me scratching my head!

 

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