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Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Mana 2.9% in New Horizon Poll

Meanwhile, away from the cheap brainfart telephone opinion polls being promoted by David Farrar, (the man who polls on a Friday night so his polling is available for Caucus on Tuesday), the Horizon Poll (with it's accepted faults of being online) continues to tell a different story....

National has 35.5% of voters with a preference who will vote

Labour has 26.6% of committed, intending voters
It is picking up 34.4% of those who now intending to vote after choosing not to vote at the last election. National is picking up 19.2% of the last election’s non-voters.

The Green Party has 9.3% intending voter support, New Zealand First 7.3%, Act 5.1%, Mana 2.9%, Maori Party 1.2%, United Future 0.9%, Jim Anderton’s Progressives 0.8%, other parties 1.2%.

The number of undecided with no current preference is 7.3%.

2.9% would equate to 4 MP's for Mana, Mana is aiming at 3.5%.



At 24/5/11 6:38 pm, Blogger Jeff said...

Isn't the horizon poll significantly different to all other polls following a more scientifically statistically correct approach (i.e. avoiding the huge skewing caused by having a poll conducted online)?

In saying the above I am no polling or stats expert. Statistics was hardly my favourite subject at school or uni. But I have huge doubts that all the small parties are doing that well, especially NZ first, and Act.

Looking like a strong performance from the Greens this year, not unexpected due to Labours appalling term in opposition, and thanks to the Mana party they look moderate.

At 24/5/11 6:53 pm, Blogger Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Dream on, dream on.

Half their respondents are people each of whom have as many as a dozen false e-mail addresses and are gaming the so called poll.


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