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Wednesday, May 25, 2011

John Key believes Treasury's rapture predictions

So everyone is looking at Treasuries predictions of growth with the same skepticism we all viewed Harold Camping's predictions of the rapture on his Family Radio network. Harold's predictions may have had more veracity if Family Radio hadn't followed up his claim the world would end tomorrow with a 5 day weather forecast.

Whanau, the budget only looks good if we believe the 4% growth forecast from Treasury so let's compare their predictions from 2008. They claimed we would get 1.5% growth, 2.3% growth and then 3.2% growth. We actually got -1.1% growth, -.4% growth and -.1% growth. Treasury have been out by as much as 3.1% of GDP as little as last year and we are supposed to believe 4% growth next year based on a Rugby World Cup which is still only half sold and the ChristChurch rebuild which still keeps suffering from aftershocks.

Who the bloody hell would be so vacant as to believe this bullshit. Enter stage Right, Optimist Prime, John Key.

John Key believes Treasury's rapture predictions and has come out defending these fairytale growth assumptions by pointing to a wide range of forecasters who all agree with him like the ANZ, BNZ, Deutschebank, Goldman Sachs and Westpac.

Key defends budget's growth forecasts
Prime Minister John Key is countering scepticism about the budget's growth forecasts, saying they stack up with other assessments of the economy.

Yeah, all of whom have been wrong in the last 3 years as well, indeed the Westpac chief economist Brendan O'Donovan at the beginning of this year claimed, and I fucking quote, "Personally I think New Zealand could have a ripsnorter of a year and I think we could be on the cusp of a golden decade in terms of economic prosperity".

That's the guy John Key wants to hold up to prove Treasury's bullshit predictions aren't bullshit? O'Donovan is so insanely positive he makes John Key look like a manic depressive on suicide watch.

There seems to be a mentality amongst some that if we just put on a smile and a cheery disposition, this recession will be over and the lambs will be lying down with the lions and world peace will break out. If Westpac's chief economist had been on the Titanic as it was sinking he'd be explaining how great the ocean views are and that now was the best time to buy another ticket.

Whanau, the economy is in free fall because the same tired slash public services more tax cuts bullshit can't deal with the parameters of the 2008 collapse. The Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard points out in his book 'crises' that the Americans had written up a quadrillion dollars in credit default swaps, that's a thousand trillion dollars. Brothers and sisters, we aren't even half way through this recession yet.



At 25/5/11 7:28 pm, Blogger Nitrium said...

Well we could easily get 4% growth if we have say 10% inflation. Indeed, if the central bank were to simply halve the value of the NZD, we could get 100% economic growth - yes we could double our GDP overnight!!! This is the morally bankrupt formula central banksters are taking around the world (spearheaded by the US's Ben noBernanke). I don't see why it won't happen here. It's a race to the bottom.


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