Budget 2011

Off and racing.

Speaker: Karakia

Bill English: Summaries, estimates, appropriations, departmental intent, invest statements...

Speaker: Published under authority of the House.

Bill English: Estimates 2011/2012

[Distributing docs. OK where are they: Treasury: Budget 2011.]

Earthquake bonds...

Deficit $16.7b

"Mixed-Ownership" model

[Mixed what? It's called by everyone else: privatisation. From the executive summary:And that privatisation that will only raise $5b - $7b is a promise he's signed off on. That's going to be a large part of what the election will be about.]

Bill English: $5m to Whanau Ora from Vote: Maori Affairs. [So Tariana has to dive into Pita's putea to top up Whanau Ora because Paula Bennett has given her zip.]

Local government borrowing as a group...

Act regulatory transparency, spending cap bill - will go to select committee [but he's not keen on it obviously]

6% capitalisation of banks (up from 4%) ...
[I have posted many times that the cross-party consensus policy of adding 30-50,000 immigrants every year is a pyramid scheme - designed for the resident settler population to make an easy - untaxed - quid off property, keep their businesses ticking over without the need to innovate or be more productive and scraping the government books through another year as the GDP number upon which Sovereign borrowing is ultimately based has expanded just enough to cover the exponential debt taken on in the process. A process that ensures the Maori population will continue to be a minority in their own country and therefore unable to take back the land upon which the debt has been issued. No extra value however accrues, no critical mass results in an economic gain from all this population importation. How can it when a couple moving here can bring in their four elderly parents with them as soon as the ink is dry and they are all eligible for the super in 10 years - and all the medical. Is that sustainable when we are already facing a wall of post-war generation retirees expected to be funded via taxation? How can that policy ever be a net gain in economic terms? The Immigration Minister's reaction when it was put to him was that he - Jonathan Coleman - had no intention of even looking at it. Blind. And here is the proof in black and white. GDP per capita has been flat since 2004 - long before this slump started in 2008. Even in the period before that - on full tilt, awash in borrowed cash - the GDP growth was timid. On an economic basis alone the immigration consensus must be addressed. No one wants to because of the fear they will be put in the same racist box as Winston Peters and the far right fringe.]

2:39 Applause - sustained applause [Oh, FFS he's not bloody Hitler - stop the phoney standing applause it's going on and on. What a short speech.]

Goff: Failed to act in interests of all NZers... "Nothing innovative or transformative - worst budget I've seen in 27 years"... [Oh, FFS pre-scripted hyperbole from Mr Grey Cardigan... C'mon Phil...]

Guts to make the right decision... pay their fair share... govt. has failed... [OK, what's Phil's plan again?]

Key: Advice from Berny Madoff... Labour Party Ponzi scheme... [Lots of one liners, tons of them. He's got a good writer, but he's rushing it - no sense of timing. Wonder how this is coming across on TV - on radio it's not too bad, but I've read some tweets making it sound like his Letterman appearance being a high tide mark of Statesmanship in comparison with this "unwatchable" attempt at a stand up routine.] We have affordable plan... Into surplus in three years. [Of course they have to plan to be in surplus, and Treasury will gladly supply the shonky projections to do it, in order to convince the ratings agencies that the NZ govt is solvent. If we planned to be in surplus in 5 or 7 years we would be toast. Problem is, again, the Treasury predictions are 0800 TAROTLINE, Monkeys throwing darts, Lotto draw type randomness. We have to hope for the best.]

UPDATE | 5:40PM Cunliffe was saying on RNZ the Treasury's growth assumptions were totally out of whack and IRD was ignoring them in their planning.

That deficit is so huge. $16.7b is ridiculous. And to get it back to below $10b - minimum benchmark manageability - they are going to sell off state assets worth $5-7b... rather than raise taxes, or cut spending... and that foregone revenue from those cartel players? Those dividends to pay off govt. debt now go into the pockets of the middle class who still have something to rub together after the monthly attempt to pay the minimum on their stupendous mortgage-anchored debt bill (or via Kiwisaver/NZSuperFund portfolio) and the foreign investors, chiefly the Chinese and their government. And then the partially state owned companies will have even more incentive to hike energy costs to satisfy the shareholders. Driving up retail prices and costing everyone - businesses and households - more. Frankly most NZers would rather borrow a bit more instead of losing the family silver in the way we did in the 80s and 90s - that is what the opinion polls will probably show. As I've posted before I don't think it's wise for the Nats to campaign on privatisation