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Monday, January 31, 2011

New Left Party odds go up



Bradford confirms Leftist party talk
Talk of a new Left-wing party is gathering steam, with veteran activist Sue Bradford confirming behind-the-scenes discussions and revealing she would consider leading it if asked.

Expectations are growing in Left-wing circles that renegade Te Tai Tokerau MP Hone Harawira could be the lightning rod for a new movement if the rift between him and the Maori Party hierarchy ends in divorce.

Mr Harawira faces disciplinary proceedings after Maori Party whip Te Ururoa Flavell complained about a newspaper article that was highly critical of the party's relationship with National.

Efforts to resolve the complaint without a formal disciplinary hearing failed after Mr Harawira's electorate excluded party leaders from a hui last week, and it now seems increasingly likely he will either leave or be expelled.

He has left open questions of whether or not he would form a new party if he was cast into the political wilderness – a notable shift from his previous insistence that he was interested only in the Maori Party.

He did not return calls yesterday.

Ms Bradford, a former Green MP, said the row posed a major threat to the Maori Party, which was facing mounting internal criticism over its support for National.

"The Maori Party is a total mess now. They have so betrayed their base and now Hone is out there painting the picture in words of one syllable.

"If some other party or individual [comes along], I think they're done for. Even Pita [Sharples] isn't that strong if a credible candidate is put up against him."

She said a lot of discussion on a new Left-wing party was "happening under the surface", but she would not be drawn on who was involved or what was being discussed.


The odds for a new left party on Ipredict have just gone up while the mainstream media slowly start to get their heads around the New Left Party prediction I made on backbenchers last year. Indeed Patrick Gower breathlessly misconstrues Hone's intent to take over the leadership of the Maori Party.

Here is what is actually happening. the National Party have realized that even IF Rodney wins Epsom, he won't bring in any MP's with him because their 3.6% party vote last time was bloated by the Sensible Sentencing Trust's raw meat law and order policy. Post David Garrett's jaw dropping hypocrisy, that political brand is dead and as such National will need to rely on the Maori Party, they can only do that if Hone has been kicked out.

Hence Mai Chen and her $25 000 price tag and because the Maori Party are suffering from Stockholm syndrome with mana enhanced baubles on promise post election Hone is being made to walk the plank.

The issue for Hone is how can he best fight this anti-worker, anti-beneficiary, anti-environment Government.

1: Can he do it best by taking over the leadership of the Maori Party?

2: Can he do it best by being an independent?

3: Or can he do it best by launching a New Left Party and with his electorate seat aim to pull a 2% Party vote bringing into power Matt McCarten and Sue Bradford?

The first would be great, but as powerful as Hone is, the rest of the Maori Party leadership have the numbers to block him.

The second would do little in altering the MMP math meaning this anti-worker, anti-beneficiary, anti-environment Government would still win.

The third option would alter the MMP math and give Hone his best chance to halt this anti-worker, anti-beneficiary, anti-environment Government while doing more for Maori outside of the Maori Party than inside it.

Currently there is over 2% in wasted Party vote that goes to the Maori Party, I say wasted because the Maori Party vote would need over 5% for them to gain another member off the Maori Party list because of their high electorate ratios. If Maori Party voters wanted a strong Maori voice, rather than waste their party vote on the Maori Party, they could make it count by giving it to a New Left Party.

Labour (whom invited me to their State of the Nation address) and the Greens (whom did not invite me to their's) would not need to see a New Left Party as a threat as the attempt would not be to cannibalize their vote, it would be to add another ally in the MMP math required to stop this anti-worker, anti-beneficiary, anti-environment Government.

Next month the Government release their ideologically stacked Welfare Razor Gang reforms. Beneficiaries represent 14% of the 2008 electorate, those beneficiaries need to ask themselves who would they want in their corner fighting for their interests as Paula Bennett lines them up for the mother of all cut backs. Do they want Sue Bradford who has fought for the rights of the unemployed all her life in their corner? Do they want Hone Harawira who has fought for the rights of those hurt most by recessions and social alienation all his life in their corner and do they want Matt McCarten who has fought for the rights of minimum wage earners all his life in their corner?

There is much to discuss and Hone needs to decide where he can most effectively fight this anti-worker, anti-beneficiary, anti-environment Government.

5 Comments:

At 31/1/11 4:55 pm, Blogger Rimu said...

I wasn't involved in any of the Green event organising over the weekend, so I'm just guessing there, but I expect that you weren't invited because it's a public event. Anyone was welcome to come, no invitation necessary.

Or they just didn't get around to sending invites to anyone...

 
At 31/1/11 7:12 pm, Blogger Barnsley Bill said...

If a new left party would not necessarily take votes from Labour or the Greens can you enlighten me as to where these votes will be magically taken from?
This will see the Greens sunk as the fringe loony left vote for the new shiny party. I hope they do put a party together, the fracture on the left will hopefully cancel out ACT sinking.

 
At 31/1/11 8:18 pm, Blogger Bomber said...

Seeing as No Minister borders on a hate speech site, I can appreciate you miss how subtle the game at hand is and are late as usual to massive changes in the Political landscape.

Rodney is gone, why can't you see that? National have and that's why they are now cosy with the Maori Party, why do you think the hard word has been given to get rid of Hone?

Seriously Barnsly, why is that you and your right wing mates can't see what's coming?

Are you blind? Does the right wing rhetoric put blinkers on?

You claim that the Party votes will rip Labour and the Greens apart, why do you think in such a basic manner?

I bet you can't play chess either can you champ?

I'm really astounded you guys haven't worked it all out yet.

See you at the election line, you were one of those ramming down my throat my claim National wouldn't be the Government post 2011 weren't you?

If your radar is as ignorant as you are claiming in your post, I'm getting away with a lot more than I had hoped for.

 
At 31/1/11 8:22 pm, Blogger Bomber said...

PS - you little wimps, why don't you put Alan Gibbs money where Newman's mouth is and launch a new hard right party, you guys could get over 5%, sure you could. I've read your echo chamber blogs, there's heaps of rednecks who think the hate you do, come on, how humiliating if the left can start a new party and you little wimpy right winger can't.

I dare you. I double dare you. If the left start a new left wing party, you and your hateful friends need to start one as well, come on champ, lift your game.

 
At 19/3/13 5:44 pm, Blogger paul scott said...

Bomber is correct, the right is failing, we are being pathetic, there is nobody here, Bomber says the truth we only care about ourselves and our money. I admire Rodney Hide enormously but we lost. ACt died, and as Bomber says or implies we have not got the guts to stand up again.

 

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