Ummm - did anyone notice the NZ economy just went backwards?
Ummmm - anyone notice that the economy is now going backwards?
Economy goes backwards
New Zealand's economy went into reverse in the September quarter, but hope remains for improvement in 2011.
Figures from Statistics New Zealand today show gross domestic product fell 0.2 percent in the September quarter.
Manufacturing fell 1.7 percent in the three months to September, construction was down 2.5 percent, and mining activity fell 6.9 percent.
For the year to September, GDP rose 1.4 percent compared with the year to September 2009, with primary industry activity up 1.1 percent including a 13.5 percent rise in forestry and logging activity.
ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said much of the economic weakness was temporary, and he expected manufacturing and housing construction to recover over the next year.
Thank God the ASB Chief Economist expects things to get better, that will make the ratings agencies sleep easier at night. Could I venture that since this is a unique crises of capitalism in the exact same way the 1929 crash was a unique crises of capitalism that the old Free Market models that the ASB Chief Economist, the treasury, the Reserve Bank Governor, the National Party, ACT etc etc etc don't work? That the same old tired ideologically driven brain farts won't be enough to avoid the societal damage this recession will cause and that perhaps a reevaluation of the growth uber allas consumer culture may in fact be timely alongside a genuine look at welfare.
The faith that these oracles of money are putting into this supposed magical turn around in the second half of next year looks almost like a meth induced state of psychosis, pick anyone of the following global tumors that could turn to cancer in 2011; China property market bubble, sovereign debt collapse, banking crisis or Euro disintegration.
The first half of 2011 is predicted to be worse than what we are seeing now, and then magically rise like a phoenix, I however would suggest that anyone of those global threats would have a very low trigger value after such a prolonged recession and that anyone of those events would be enough to spiral the Global economy down worse than these optimistic domestic predictions making any recovery at the end of 2011 simply a falsehood.
We are directing the economy behind the blindfold of falsehoods.
If the economy continues to collapse, and we really are facing a unique economic 1929 crises, then the environment is set for a splintering of the political spectrum.
A new right party under Muriel Newman, John Banks and Don Brash could ignite out of sheer panic if a new left wing party made up of Hone, Sue and Matt were to launch with a direct focus on minimum wage and beneficiaries. There are 338 000 beneficiaries, there were 2 376 480 votes in 2008. That's 14%, 5% = representation, but the ace in the hole is Hone's electorate seat, so a sub 5% tail could get elected. Those crucial extra seats could be the difference between being the new Government and not being the new Government.
One thing is for certain, the 2011 election will be much, much closer than the right wing are currently pretending and the spite shown in the manufactured crises at The Hobbit tells us the next election will be a very bitter and divisive one.
Before the fight begins, let us all take a moment to celebrate the fact that no matter how nasty the election gets, we are one of the few lucky countries in the world where political power can be handed over or maintained by peaceful means in a country where the peoples will can be genuinely expressed. Beyond political allegiance, we can all count our blessings to live in such a strong democracy.