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Friday, December 10, 2010

iPredict stock for a New Left Wing Party

10 December 2010


Will a new left or right political party be launched?

New Zealand's prediction market, iPredict Ltd, will tomorrow launch new stocks aimed at predicting whether or not a new left-wing or new right-wing party will be launched before next year's General Election. Trading will begin at 8.00 am tomorrow (Saturday 11 December) New Zealand Time.

The Chief Executive of iPredict, Matt Burgess, said there had been significant speculation about the possibility of a new left-wing political party centred on former Alliance President and current Unite National Secretary Matt McCarten, former Green MP Sue Bradford and current Maori Party MP Hone Harawira.

Speculation on a possible right-wing party has centred on former National Party leader and Reserve Bank Governor Don Brash.

"If either of these parties gets off the ground, they could have very significant impacts on the chances of the Green and Act parties being returned to Parliament next year; the levels of support likely to be achieved by the National, Labour and Maori parties; the result of next year's General Election and post-election coalition bargaining," Mr Burgess said.

A new left wing party could provide the numbers a left wing coalition could use to gain the majority necessary to govern. The Labour Party, the Greens and the Maori Party should be looking at a grand coalition with the extra 3 or 4 seats the new left wing party could generate. The 3.6% vote Matt took in Mana would be enough to put the new left wing party into the kind of power position ACT currently operates with the Government.

If this new left wing party lunched, the backlash within the hard right could create enough heat to form a new right wing. As economic recession heralds more austerity and hard times, the political spectrum fragments.


At 10/12/10 8:14 pm, Blogger Master said...

That's an interesting theory, Martyn.

However, it would probably take more than the launch of a new left wing party to increase seats held by the left. Labour would need to pick up their game in order to replace the votes they would lose from their extreme left base to the new left party. I can't see any middle ground, or mild right voters deciding to switch directly to Bradford, McCarten and co.



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