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Saturday, December 11, 2010

How a new left wing party wins in 2011


Speculation swirls on new Left and Right parties
Talk is swirling on the left and the right of the political spectrum about new political parties, just a year out from the next election.

Former National leader Don Brash is understood to be coming under pressure within Right-wing circles in Auckland to consider a return to politics, while former Green MP Sue Bradford admits she would consider a comeback under the banner of a new Left-wing party.

iPredict, an online futures market for politics, launched stocks yesterday picking the formation of a new Left-wing or Right-wing party before the election and raised the stakes by linking Ms Bradford and Dr Brash to their creation.


The possibility of a double dip recession akin to the 1929 crises of Capitalism is a topic well canvassed here, domestic and international economic structures are weakened and any shock can trigger domino entropy. If retail suffers a dour Christmas will retail be the next industry ripe for major collapse in the new year?

With economic downturn comes political friction, the Horizon Poll suggests with our MMP 5% threshold that there is room in this political environment of anxious uncertainty for the political splintering to occur.

Rodney Hide WILL NOT win Epsom meaning ACT are dog tucker, their jaw dropping hypocrisy means they are electoral poison, the good people of Epsom are not stupid and won't elect a Party with such bullshit ethics. The problem for the right wing is that the red neck 'celts settled NZ' brigade are far too crazy for the mainstream, so National will want as much distance between them and sanity as possible so they don't want a new right wing party, luckily for the left wing, the tiny echo chambers the right slither in convince them they have the numbers, which means they can be goaded into igniting into a 'tea party' protest movement on the right combining 'celts-settled-NZ-rednecks', 'global-warming-is-a-hoax-deniers' and 'eat-the-poor-free-marketers'.

If the new left Wing Party starts, it will goad the right into a similar movement, which is great news as the new right wing party WILL NEVER get over 5% - NEVER, but in their little echo chambers they will think they have wide support, I say we feed that hubris.

The story for the new Left wing Party is VERY different.

NEW LEFT WING PARTY LIST
1: Sue Bradford (co-leader)
2: Hone Harawira (co-leader)
3: Matt McCarten
4: Jane Kelsey


Why is it so different? Hone's electorate seat means that even if the new left Party only gets the 3.6% Matt got in Mana, they will still get representation!

A new left wing party focused on the rights of beneficiaries and minimum wage aspirations is a political voice screaming for representation, as this Government offer nothing more than a vulgar economic Darwinism, the poor will look for a political party focused on their needs. Why should the most vulnerable pay for the greed of American corporates using Wall St like a casino? Why should the weak cut back while John Key hands himself a tax cut? Why should we all pay more in GST to restructure the tax rate so the rich get more?

There are 338 000 beneficiaries and 2 376 480 voters in the 2008 election, that means beneficiaries represent about 14% of the vote - the numbers are there for a new left wing party.

A new left wing party could form a grand coalition with the Greens, the Maori Party and Labour, the deal being that each of the smaller parties get their Minister in, so the Maori Party would get Maori Affairs, the Greens the Environment and the new left wing Party Welfare. The problem for smaller parties is that they get swallowed up so mere policy nods to hold up to the electorate isn't enough. Forget that, the smaller parties should dominate the Ministry's they take so progress is much more substantial.

Labour need allies to form a Government and shouldn't see a new left wing Party as a threat.

The promise of democracy is that you can look into the face of your child and know they will get a better deal from society than you did, under National that promise is stillborn. A new left wing coalition should make the fulfillment of that promise it's top agenda.

Great news story regarding both sides of the welfare debate, I think you'll see Sue Bradford's Alternative Welfare program is well argued.

15 Comments:

At 11/12/10 9:29 am, Blogger sdm said...

Your thoughts on this are interesting, but I dont think you have quite thought it through.

I agree they can get into parliament. And the road there is the one you suggested.

But they will bleed votes off Labour/Greens. Whether that increased the left vote or merely redistributes it is another matter. With the Greens only getting 6-7% (under a more popular leader), you might risk them dropping into the 5's. The Greens are weird - they poll 8-10, but only get 6. Fragmenting that vote is risky.

Such a party risks scaring the middle. If the left starts talking about introducing the ideas of the alternative welfare group, they could lose the blue collar workers, who dont want to fund such a dramatic increase in welfare. What I am saying is winning the poor vote could cost the middle.

And there is room for a new right wing party to replace Act, but its a harder ask. There is no seat, if I were them I would run in Tamaki (wealthy electorate with a weak national incumbent). But the chances are less than 10%.

 
At 11/12/10 11:08 am, Blogger Bomber said...

Scot, for someone claiming this couldn't be done last week, your sudden u turn is heart warming, if a right wing apologist like you can now see that the new left wing party can get elected, I'm halfway there.

Here is why you are wrong.

A 3.6% vote for the new left wing party WILL NOT 'bleed off support' from Labour or the Greens, it will be aimed at those disaffected who may not vote for those parties anyway - plus the electoral seat element pushes the representation above what 3.6% distributed to those parties would create anyway.

In an election as close as the 2011 will be (despite the pretense by the right wing that it will be a cakewalk), the couple of extra seats the new left wing party would create will be the difference between forming a new government and not forming a new government.

Creating a new left wing party will also goad your right wing apologist redneck mates into starting their own party, which will not get above 5% and become wasted vote, boosting the left wing % of the vote as well.

Do me a favour Scott, pop on over to Kiwibogh and bitch about the left wing getting a new party and the right wing not getting one.

 
At 11/12/10 1:20 pm, Blogger Muzza said...

Hi Bomber,

I certainly have my reservations about whether or not there are sufficient numbers of left leaning voters to sustain Labour, the Greens, a new left party and arguably the Maori Party. Therefore, any new left party would have to target the politically apathetic e.g. beneficiaries, new immigrants etc... Matt McCarten's Mana campaign showed this is far, far easier said than done. Matt ran a good campaign with a focus on real issues (and he knows how to communicate with working people), however he just did not manage to get his constituency out in numbers. This should be a worry for any new left party.

Labour does need a moderating force to prevent the party from pursuing some of the conservative knee jerk rubbish it occasionally comes up with e.g. the 5th Labour government solidifying the neo liberal framework and recently Phil Goff’s ‘Nationhood’ speech. Labour is not perfect, never has been nor will it ever be, that been said I do not think a new left party will keep Labour aligned with their left wing roots rather it would more than likely push Labour to the centre (and further right).

It would be awesome to see Jane Kelsey enter politics. She has performed well in the media recently and is undoubtedly an intellect the right should fear. I think it would be interesting to see Helen Kelly enter a new left party as well. The question of whether Hone Harawira will split from the Maori Party is another question. I cannot help but think Maori would perceive such a move as treachery (i can imagine the word "kupapa" flying around). Even though such a move will probably benefit Maori given the direction the Maori Party has taken of late.

 
At 11/12/10 1:57 pm, Blogger Bomber said...

Muzza, you raise very valid points.

I agree the disaffected would need to be targeted, but in a 6.4% unemployment environment with the razor blade dangling over benefits, I am going to suggest those disaffected are more active than ever.

Matt's 3.6% vote says a couple of things, the first is that if the new left wing party pulled 3.6% with Hone's electorate seat, they would be ecstatic. The second thing is that it shows what people are prepared to do as a protest vote (voting for Matt knowing he couldn't win), what would they do if they KNEW that with Hone's vote that vote wasn't wasted?

I'm not sure about a move to the right by Labour at all. They will speak to a middle class electorate about what they have always talked about, education, health and housing all covered in a social justice glaze. As the economy gets worse, Labour won't have any room to move, better to continue the attack that National intend to sell of the country than turn on a possible ally.

Jane would be amazing, Helen Kelly is another great candidate and as for Hone leaving the Maori Party, come on the writings been on the wall for some time! They've threatened to have him leave and he's found it difficult to see the Maori Party cut deals he knows are wrong with National. Hone is in Parliament because he wants to change things, and a party with the focus on the weakest in society, beneficieres and minimum wage would have a social justice element that Hone could take to his electorate and win with. The Maori Party should choose to allow Hone to exit with his mana intact so no harsh civil war erupts, as once the dust settles from the 2011 election the numbers could suggest allies not competitors. Especially if that alliance between the Greens, The Maori Party and the New Left Party could go to Labour with a united front to negotiate each party get the Ministry they align with so the electorate gets to see what real policy they can drive through.

 
At 11/12/10 2:07 pm, Blogger sdm said...

Ok I'll try again.

How can the left promise the world to beneficiaries, but still win enough middle class votes who would be faced with tax increases to fund such largess? Or would it be a case of winning the fringe but losing the centre.

 
At 11/12/10 2:44 pm, Blogger Muzza said...

To fund essential and humane increases to benefit levels i would imagine that a left coalition would explore the option of instituting a Tobin tax or a banking profits tax...

 
At 11/12/10 3:45 pm, Blogger sdm said...

"essential and humane" - what a joke. Should we buy them a house and give them sky tv?

The benefit is there to allow people to get accomodation, food, utilities and maybe a little bit more.

Banking profits are taxed, and I doubt a tobin tax would raise enough revenue. Bomber has advocated a land tax - because the middle class will really go for that.

The climate isnt there for a massive shift to the left. If unemployment was over 10%, maybe. But it might drop below 6 before the election.

The anger is on the fringe - dont forget that.

 
At 11/12/10 4:02 pm, Blogger sdm said...

And bomber you have also made some mathematical errors.

You seem to be arguing that because Matt got 3.6% in Mana, they can get it nationally. You cant make that extrapolation.

In 2008 (the last data set), the left got 60% of the Mana vote. Nationally the left got about 42% of the vote. So the left vote is 18% higher in Mana than it is nationally.

So if this new party was to go national, it might only be looking at 2.5%. 3 MPs.

Mana is not representative of New Zealand.

 
At 11/12/10 4:48 pm, Blogger Bomber said...

"essential and humane" - what a joke. Should we buy them a house and give them sky tv?
No Scott, we should evaluate their needs and fund accordingly...

Call for 50 per cent rise in benefits

The benefit is there to allow people to get accomodation, food, utilities and maybe a little bit more.

...not according to the alternative welfare review Scott. Your assertion of what welfare should be limited to seems necessary for your more stick no carrot style of State.

Banking profits are taxed,
Not high enough

and I doubt a tobin tax would raise enough revenue.
A Tobin Tax could raise a lot of money, what with our currency being the 11th most traded in the world and all. Oh and let's be VERY clear scott, I also support a Robin Hood Tax as well

Bomber has advocated a land tax - because the middle class will really go for that.
So? The new left wing party doesn't seem very middle class now does it Scott?

The climate isnt there for a massive shift to the left. If unemployment was over 10%, maybe. But it might drop below 6 before the election.
I've said all along this is dependent on the economy, I have argued it causes stresses, these stresses cause the political system to fracture, that is what is stirring. The Economy does have to get worse, and what's it doing? Well Allan Bollard get's more depressed each day doesn't he?

Nervous month in retail as spending slows

The anger is on the fringe - dont forget that.
The economy is holding on by its fingernails, don't forget that.

 
At 11/12/10 4:51 pm, Blogger Bomber said...

Oh and as for this...

And bomber you have also made some mathematical errors.

You seem to be arguing that because Matt got 3.6% in Mana, they can get it nationally. You cant make that extrapolation.

In 2008 (the last data set), the left got 60% of the Mana vote. Nationally the left got about 42% of the vote. So the left vote is 18% higher in Mana than it is nationally.

So if this new party was to go national, it might only be looking at 2.5%. 3 MPs.

Mana is not representative of New Zealand.


Hey, 3 MP's is 3 MP's

 
At 11/12/10 5:53 pm, Blogger sdm said...

"So? The new left wing party doesn't seem very middle class now does it Scott?"

But you need the middle to win the election. And by telling property owners etc that they need to pay more tax isnt going to entice them to vote for you.

 
At 12/12/10 12:27 am, Blogger JDK said...

Sdm: But you need the middle to win the election. And by telling property owners etc that they need to pay more tax isn't going to entice them to vote for you.

Isn't that what national did? Oh that's right, they just didn't mention it before they won the election. They told us after the election we will all have to pay more tax. Maybe the lefty's might follow suit? would be the first time.
---------------
I for one think that this (below) is a great idea....

ALTERNATIVE GROUP
* Work-test for dole only as now.
* Raise benefits to cover basic needs.
* Extend in-work tax credit to all low-income families.
* Pay all benefits to individuals regardless of partner's income.
* Personal case managers to support all beneficiaries to find work.
* Maximum training opportunities for all beneficiaries.

I hope my tax goes on this, instead of that limo that carted warner bros around, that is f'n ridiculous.

I cant believe we moan and cry about helping kiwi's get out the F'd up situation that there in, which lead to the benefit. This official groups ideas, were to add more oppression, stress, on family and people with disabilities, do they seriously believe that it solve the beneficiary issues of NZ or is it just about lining there greedy little pockets, because if they don't have to spend money to help kiwis on the benefit, maybe there holding the extra money to send there partners on tax payer trips to china, let's ask miss Wong.

 
At 12/12/10 9:06 am, Blogger sdm said...

JDK:

So your suggestion is that the left promise the middle class no tax increases, but then do it anyway because its the greater good. At least your honest

Lets go through some of the ideas:

"* Work-test for dole only as now."

Why? If/when the economy improves, we should look to get those people into work.

"* Raise benefits to cover basic needs."

This occurs already. A high benefit rate discourages work. Basic needs are accomodation, food and utilities. Given income related rents, these 3 are covered.

"* Extend in-work tax credit to all low-income families."

fine

"* Pay all benefits to individuals regardless of partner's income."

You might get a few remuera house wife votes with this idea!!!!

* Personal case managers to support all beneficiaries to find work.
* Maximum training opportunities for all beneficiaries.

Agree - and link the benefit to it - dont look for a job or train, no money for you sunshine.

 
At 12/12/10 10:22 pm, Blogger JDK said...

sdm: No my suggestion is not that at all, It's no surprise the all politicians lie, the difference is the ones that win the election tend to hide there lies better than the ones that lost, it's only while there in the drivers seat of this counties resources there lies are suddenly exposed to all of us kiwis, dang am I happy that my hard earns went on billion dollar corporation such as Warner bros, that limo was paid for at our expense, for what exactly, a movie? you have got to be kidding me.

In direct relation to beneficiaries how is it justified to suck up to foreign company, write laws, for goodness sakes, yet when it comes to helping our fellow kiwis out of hardship we would rather our beneficiaries nailed to the floor?

It is common sense sdm, that if you treat people like a animal you will not get an up standing citizen, I for one am totally sick of the idea of oppressing these KIWI'S (i put that there in caps because that's who they are, yet we forget that) maybe because they don't fit into our or your perfect utopia, but there Kiwi's sdm, they are Kiwi's that are down on the luck for whatever reason. But ironically if this so called hard measures worked before, we would not be reviewing the situation again, now would we?

So if the first / second / thrid/ fourth wave of benefit cuts and screwing down on these kiwis didn't work, why oh why does anyone consider making it harder for these kiwi's will bear fruit of prosperity.

I agree I don't entirely support everything, but if oppression didn't cut it, isn't it time for change? wholeheartedly, I am in full support of "Maximum training opportunities for all beneficiaries" at it's current standing, our beneficiaries can only study to lvl 3 certificate, anything higher than that they do not get any support from WINZ, Some will obviously say so what.. Well if we want these kiwi's working, why do we limit there abilities to gain the skills they need to obtain that job, (excuse my french) but that's is like f(beep)king for virginity.

if that's the case I'll take two. :)

Ultimately I am sure we all want a see a end to the issues of beneficiaries, but if pressurising them didn't work, it is time for change.

(excuse the profanity, purely an expression nothing more)

 
At 13/12/10 10:13 am, Blogger Dean said...

Kelsey is the only person on that list with a brain. Shame she is so irritating.

 

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