It's the economy stupid!
My mantra that Labour has a chance in the 2011 election because the economic conditions will deteriorate are finally getting picked up in the mainstream point for point...
Slowdown in growth big blow for National
Labour sees the debate over economic management starting to shift in its favour. While the international economy remains in flux, the time when National could also lay blame for the domestic economic downturn at Labour's door is fast receding.
John Key's prediction that the recovery would be "reasonably aggressive" has backfired. National is starting to look like it does not have the answers. English's talk of "rebalancing" may be sound economic theory. But the average punter has little interest in that. English is consequently sounding out of touch. National is starting to look very vulnerable.
Accordingly, Phil Goff will stress economic matters in his keynote speech to this weekend's Labour Party conference. .
He will blast Key for failing to deliver on the "Brighter Future" promised by National, while accusing him of making no progress in closing the income gap with Australia.
Labour strategists see it as crucial that Goff persuade voters that Key raised their expectations and then failed to meet them.
...the issue for National is that they are attempting to use neoliberal deregulation, low tax, free market dogma to solve a global economic crises that was caused by neoliberal deregulation, low tax, free market dogma. The problem is that National ideologically support the causes of the global meltdown.
We are facing a crises of capitalism in the same way the 1929 collapse was a crises of capitalism, it wasn't until the mid 1930's that the full economic social impact of the '29 collapse was felt, we had our collapse in 2008, the 'correction' isn't even close to being over and with the latest banking meltdown in America caused by fraudulent use of 'robosigning' mortgage foreclosures and the currency war and the slowdown in China, the economic conditions won't get better any time soon.
As the economic meltdown reaches double dip stage two, the GST rise will increasingly hurt NZers while draconian labour laws that give bosses the right to sack will stop any middle class person with large ongoing costs changing jobs for fear of getting sacked.
This shift to the left as times get harder and harder was what motivated the local body elections, Simon Wilson Metro Editor pointed out on The Nation on TV3 last week that this shift went under the National radar as the msm rely totally on these cheapo telephone polls that proclaim National have 53% support, these very same cheapo telephone polls claimed Brown and Banks were neck and neck.
NZers will look at Key's claim that they will be better off and feel it as a lie, and his optimism will start to look out of touch (hey I'd be optimistic with $40 million and a Hawiian mansion). The challenge for Labour will be to have the policy when NZers are ready to listen and looking at this weekends conference (which I've been at and shall blog on later tonight) suggests Labour do have that policy.
2011 will NOT be the cake walk so many on the right seem to have convinced themselves of.