Why question latest TVNZ opinion Poll showing 54% support for National
YAWN - 54% of NZ support National do they? Really?
I note once again that these Polls are pointless brainfarts that serve only to create the impression of support rather than measure actual support. We don't know what the call back ratio is, we don't know if only landlines were used, were cell phones used (in a recession where the poor are avoiding debt collectors and can't afford land lines their opinions are simply not registered) and MOST importantly we are never shown the weighting. What is weighting? Each poll has to equate to the percentage make up of the population, so let's say there are 10% Maori, the Poll has to have 10% Maori, problem is that most of the time the Pollsters never get 10% Maori opinion, so what they do is they weight whatever opinions they do get from Maori to fill up the necessary 10%, now if you are only getting conservative opinion when you call during dinner time, then that is the opinion that will get magnified, the danger is these brainfarts become self fulfilling prophecy. The only polls worth real examination are deliberative polls, but because they cost so much money to run we get these cheap brainfart polls.
What will be interesting about the Super City election if Brown wins is that it will show up the massive deficits in public opinion polls as all the Polls put out so far have shown Brown and Banks neck and neck and I would claim that is because the current polls in this economic environment are missing huge chunks of the population. The results from voters who have already voted and sent their postal ballots back show an overwhelming support towards Len Brown, if that plays out and Len wins by a landslide, the current public opinion poll models claiming National are leading by over 50% can be challenged.