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Friday, July 30, 2010

Chris Carter is a bloody idiot and why Goff can win in 2011

Defiant Carter writes off boss
Suspended Labour MP Chris Carter says his view that Labour leader Phil Goff can't win the next election and should be replaced is shared by many other MPs and party activists.

Apparently it's all been a miscommunication, Goff told Chris, 'Man it up bitch', Chris thought he had said, 'Bitch it up man'.

I had a huge amount of respect for Chris Carter, yes he had every right to be shitty over getting stung for travel that Cabinet had signed off on, yes he had every right to be pissed at the media for the gay luxury boy routine and yes being forced to run down stairs over flowers for the boyfriend and getting a public spanking for it would make anyone as hard working as Chris feel pretty ragged, but he has shown less regard for personal well being than a Taliban suicide bomber with his failed gutless coup that had all the class of former BP Chief executive Tony Hayward.

Let's be very clear here, I believe that if Key wins the 2011 election, National will use that as a mandate to privatize everything not nailed down, they have spent all this time since winning the election quietly preparing in the back rooms all the policy mechanisms their privatization will require, I did not spend fighting National for most of my life during the 1990s to just see the buggers unleash all their free market dogma on NZ now!

If I didn't think Goff could win 2011, I'd knife him myself and lead an online campaign to destabilize Phil, that's how much I don't want National winning, but Goff has every chance of winning, and here are the reasons why...

1: Folks, the Polls are brainfarts, we are never told if the Polls use phone lines or mobile, we don't know when people were called, how many callbacks and most importantly what the weighting of the polls are. The danger with Polls is if they are repeated enough they become self fulfilling, we shouldn't let David Farrar dictate the political subconscious of NZ.

2: Helen was down in the Polls like this when she was in Opposition, it didn't stop her from becoming leader when the political environment changed.

3: The most important reason why Goff can win the 2011 is the change in the economic environment. Come October, the GST rise is going to make a lot of middle class people feel for the first time in their lives like they are not middle class, while those on the bottom will have the John Key vacant aspiration squeezed out of them when his words that they won't be worse off from the GST changes turn out to be hollow. Key's popularity is that he was 'change' but no one knew exactly what that 'change' was, and as Key's vision resembles more and more that of a boy in an optimistic bubble, people will feel that pain in their pocket and Key's popularity could crash with Kevin Rudd like proportions.

Chris, I'm a bit of a lone bear at the best of times, and I don't like going along with anything I don't agree with, but you've turned on Labour when it needs solidarity in the face of a Government who will create massive social damage with their razor gang to public services, defeating National should be any progressive persons desire, not enacting petty quarrels in public.

Goff can win but Carter just lost.


At 30/7/10 8:33 am, Anonymous sdm said...

To address your points

1) Totally correct, but the polls are becoming self-for fulling. Say something often enough and it becomes true. My point - the horse has bolted - people believe Labour wont win. And everyone likes to back a winner.

2) Yes, Helen was down in the polls. But then there was a major political earthquake - Winston Peters. He went with the Nats, Bolger was rolled by Shipley, Peters walked out, and who remembers Alamein Kopu? Are you suggesting Key might have the same turmoil politically?

3) I am on the right and I believe the second dip is coming. You and I will never agree on the cure, so lets not go there. Suffice it to say, this populist BS from Key is growing tiresome. Simple Maths does tell us that the GST increase will be offset by income tax (unless you are earning less than you spend), but its the combination of GST, interest rates, vehicle rego's, ACC levies that will eat away at the tax cuts. GST by itself? fine. Not the rest though.

Will these costs hurt the government? Yes, if Labour can make it stick. Your comparison to Rudd is interesting - but Abbot seems more electable than Goff. Labour needs an alternative electable leader, and right now Goff doesnt seem that man. I doubt Cunliff is either, but thats another story. Also, how many leaders did the Libs have to go through before Abbott?

Equally fascinating is the Hawkins angle. As somebody who has been involved in the Labour party in South Auckland, when I was younger, the LEC vs Party Heirachy is fascinating. George Hawkins and Ross Robertson are enormously popular local MPs who the party want gone. Neither seeks a list position, primarily because it would be low, but both have the support of the labour party electorate committee. Labour HQ would love to get fresh faces into these two seats, but to move against the local exec could be damaging. Maybe Labour have decided that this is the election to do it - chances are they will lose - get the candidates in before 2014 and have a crack then. Deal with the bad press of ousting a popular MP now, take the hit - reinvent yourself, and win in 2014. I honestly believe that is the strategy.

At 30/7/10 10:38 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Interesting piece, to me the more apt comparison is between Bill English and Phil Goff, rather than Phil and Helen. Both long term party servants, well respected in their own party circles, who struggled to connect with the public.

Both had taken over as opposition leaders..after a long term in Government..during which time their respective parties, became old and tired (and in Labours case the public seemed to fall out of love with a once popular leader.)

The National Government in 1999 was a sham, propped up by Mauri-Pacific (hehehe) and Alamein Kopu. If a united Labour-Alliance coalition couldn't win in 1999 they were never going to. In 1996 they were still divided, before Anderton and Clark hugged and finally made up. In 1999 they were a united, hungry, Government in waiting, with fresh ideas, and the public was looking for change.

Fast forward to 2010 a divided and unpopular Labour Party, in its first term in opposition after a long spell in charge, is up against a united and very popular (unheard of honeymoon spell since records began) Government.

It's expecting a lot for this to turn around so quickly. Chris Carter has an insider's view, and he clearly doesn't like what he sees. His behaviour was disgraceful, and his attempt to play a Machiavellian game has blown up big time, to the detriment of his party. Phil had the opportunity to act with deciciveness over the Carter / Jones affair, he took it, only to be lanced again by Carter's "apology." Sounds like Carter still doesn't want to go quietly.

If Labour make it over the line it will be more down to NZ First making it back in, and the Maori Party switching sides, rather than any revival led by Phil Goff.

At 30/7/10 11:16 pm, Blogger Eure said...

Parallels r dumb. There are none- the 80's in OZ Howard & peacock played musical chairs with the opposition gig, pundits said both unelectable, gig given to Hewson who lost Howard grabbed it & won.
Goff≠Howard pressure was building on Key and now labour self destructs thanks to Carter who maybe was more concerned about Goff winning than losing.
Key is going to demolish our democratic system leaving Maori seats as the only vaguely PR option because the torys can only ever rule long term by a dictatorship of the minority. Maori Party bulwark is temporary even if Maorinever goes back to labour.
McCully has been pissing up his credit card with 4 bots of $185 a bot wine. No headlines- Carter has filled them.
his Tibet excuse sux- sticking his hand in our pockets for his jet setting is bad, but rather that than taking emoluments from foreign governments. He should be tried as a foreign agent along with any other MP who accepts largesse from any foreigners.

At 1/8/10 11:13 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can't Labour get someone less right wing than Goff to lead.
The problem is I can still hear him trying to be "Tough on Crime" in the 90'a and the 00's.

Doesn't Act need a new leader?


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