Are ‘green shoots’ really just snot?

IMF sees slow recovery
The global economy is set to slowly pull out from its worst recession in six decades, the IMF said, and world leaders aim to help the recovery with a breakthrough in stalled trade talks. The International Monetary Fund forecast a slightly steeper 1.4 percent global contraction in its latest outlook than in the previous April edition, but saw 2.5 percent growth next year, stronger than the 1.9 percent predicted earlier. The Fund warned, however, that the world economy and the banking sector at the heart of the financial crisis were not strong enough yet to do without heavy government spending and cheap central bank funds. "The recovery is coming but it is likely to be a weak recovery," IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard said. Leaders of the Group of Eight industrial nations agreed that despite rounds of interest rate cuts and an estimated $5 trillion in public spending, the recovery was not yet assured and that it was too early to cut off economic lifelines.

Isn’t this upgrade from the IMF more to do with the impact of Government’s mass stimulus packages? The final shot of steroids into a pumped up roid rage global economic system deformed by unregulated financial weapons of mass destruction that took venal greed to un unknown level of corruption. What happens when the Government’s can’t fork out any more cash to repair the damage? Unregulated greed signed up $67 Trillion in Credit Default Swaps, Obama has sunk in a Trillion and there is now talk of a second stimulus bailout because the roid rage global economy is screaming for another hit like a crack addict needing his next fix. How will mass global unemployment effect these ‘green shoots’ is something that still hasn’t been answered, and neither has the actual vision of what we are trying to get back up and running. Surely we all agree that consumer culture was allowed to blow out to a level utterly unsustainable not only for the environment but for capitalism itself and trying to restart this deformed system to get back to ‘business’ as usual’ is just the height of madness.

The news ain’t getting better and I view claims that this is just a ‘recession’ from those with a vested interest in calming the markets and consumers akin to Real Estate Agents telling passengers on the Titanic that it’s never been a better time to buy deck chairs.

Retail sales knocked
New Zealand's retailers suffered a big setback in June after seeing some encouraging signs earlier in the year. Monthly electronic card transactions figures released by Statistics New Zealand today show that core retail spending (excluding automotive industries and fuel) went backwards by 1.2 percent last month, following rises in the previous three months - including a 1.1 percent increase in May. The fall was the biggest monthly drop in the core retail sales figures since October 2007. SNZ said that the durables industry, including furniture, hardware and appliance retailing, was the main contributor.

UK business lobby warns of double-dip recession
LONDON - There is a rising danger that Britain is about to enter a "double dip" or "W-shaped" recession, according to the latest survey of business confidence by the British Chambers of Commerce. The BCC's second-quarter survey confirms the current consensus on the economy - that "the worst of the recession is over" - but says that employers' hiring intentions are running at a 20-year low and warns of "serious downward pressures". "There is a risk that without a continued focus on limiting the impact of recession, the economy could drop off suddenly, adding weight to the argument that we are heading towards a W-shaped recession."

Aussie jobless hits 5.8pc
Australia's unemployment rate has jumped again as the slowing economy forces more companies to wipe employees from payrolls. The official jobless rate rose to 5.8 percent in June, after hitting 5.7 percent in May, with 21,400 jobs lost overall, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported. That's the highest unemployment rate since October 2003. Crucially, the decline in jobs fell mostly on full-time employees, with 21,900 such positions lost last month. The number of part-time employees rose by about 400.

Worst for 20 years
Investors are bracing themselves for the worst Australian profit season in nearly two decades, with earnings set to fall sharply and dividends still under pressure as corporate Australia takes a buffeting from the global economic crisis. Analysts expect profits to be up to 20 percent lower than last year with few prospects for growth in the next 12 months.

Waves of job losses sap U.S. states' budgets
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Already sapped by a long U.S. recession, states' budgets will likely shrivel even more as waves of Americans lose their jobs, and the damage done to public services such as education could last for years. Looking at the U.S. unemployment rate, which stands at 9.5 percent and is projected to rise above 10 percent, National Governors Association Executive Director Raymond Scheppach said states' economic conditions are going to "get worse in about 10 months, and it'll stay bad for a while."

'Massive' increase in non-payers
A "staggering increase" in the number of firms not paying their bills in the first half of the year has prompted credit bureau Veda Advantage to warn businesses of a deterioration in the next 18 months. Veda said it saw a "massive" 64.56 per cent rise in commercial defaults in the six months to June compared with a year ago. Defaults are essentially where the business owed money has given up and turned to a debt collection company which then informs a credit bureau like Veda.
Expat dole figures monitored
The Social Development Ministry is monitoring how many Kiwis return from overseas and go straight on the dole amid concerns it could worsen gloomy unemployment forecasts.

I’ve said many times that our unemployment rate will be the worst case scenario that Treasury picked because the Government have done sweet FA to turn the jobless numbers around (1000 NZers on the dole each week) and because expat NZers would flee the global economy by rushing home, bloating jobless numbers.

We are in denial at how bad the economy really is and can’t seem to agree on what the global economic values should now be based on, rampant consumerism has almost killed the planet and the economy, restarting that rampant consumerism can’t be the solution.

Oh and a great piece in Vanity Fair about AIG and the corruption that started this entire meltdown…

The Man Who Crashed the World
Almost a year after A.I.G.'s collapse, despite a tidal wave of outrage, there still has been no clear explanation of what toppled the insurance giant. The author decides to ask the people involved-the silent, shell-shocked traders of the A.I.G. Financial Products unit-and finds that the story may have a villain, whose reign of terror over 400 employees brought the company, the U.S. economy, and the global financial system to their knees.

In short, we are in no way out of the woods yet and the ‘green shoots’ are really just the drying snot from a very sick global economy.