Slap National's face with a Green vote

Shearer 62%, Lee 21%, Norman 13%, Boscawen 4%.

750 people done up until last night says Duncan Garner. The TV3 poll puts Shearer light years ahead of everyone. Another earlier one (not TV3 - can't recall) had similar figures. One Nat guy was saying at this Backbenchers candidates debate tonight that was of decided voters only. Well? Shearer himself in the same report says the main concern now is to get "our people" out to vote. But the sense - the consensus - is Shearer will secure a very creditable majority. So we turn to who will come second. Lee wants to come - aspires to be - second, but she has taken that slot for granted (notoriously).

People may be voting for Russel Norman for many reasons, but the real vein of votes to be mined in the electoral quartz in a by-election is ultimately the protest vote - in this case a vote against National, specifically to punish National's arrogance. That alone is a worth several thousand. You can't punish National's arrogance by voting for Helen's replacement in a safe Labour electorate. That's not an effective message because it continues the status quo.

You slap National's face with a Green vote. The only way to get National into the awful situation of running third is to vote for Norman.

And if - if - Norman was running ahead of Lee and within striking distance of Shearer in any opinion poll result (so far: no) then that may even trigger National voters to vote Norman too to 'punish' Labour by electing the Green - at that point the fact National came third would not be as damaging as what fate befalls Phil Goff and the morale of the Labour Party. The worst thing that could happen is he gets elected and another Green MP gets in - not exactly the end of the Earth for the majority in this electorate - Lefties. But it looks a bit late in the day for a significant poll result change to turn the minds of the voters to casting a tactical vote.

The Nats don't seem that alarmed from what I gather - they've picked up their campaign presence and regained a semblance of control. But for every Wellington goon on their squad - be it Farrar, or outside MPs - Labour is matching and bettering them in terms of external assistance. There were many non-Auckland Labour MPs at this candidate's debate. As for Shearer himself- he seems better at the presentation side from when he began only a few weeks ago (it can't all be due to John Pagani's micro-management of late can it?) and from what limited things I've observed he is a warm character. That's almost impossible to beat in this electorate.

It's Labour home turf anyway and its very tough for them in Mt Albert despite what the close party vote was at the general election. Everyone knows this. It was either going to be Ravi or some Head Office/PM appointment making it through the selection process. Unfortunately Melissa Lee is the Prime Ministerial shoulder tap that turned into a hospital pass for the party. She could well come third.