Shearer slaughter heralds National as a one term Government – Mt Albert Autopsy
Kirk: I was told Lee had lots of support
National Party president Judy Kirk said she was absent from Melissa Lee's byelection campaign function on Saturday because campaign manager Jonathan Coleman assured her she had plenty of support.
Mrs Kirk watched on the television as the Korean-born list MP gave an emotional speech saying her own mistakes had contributed to the poor result in Mt Albert and she would learn from them. Taupo-based Mrs Kirk said she had offered to go to Auckland but Dr Coleman had been "absolutely clear" there had been plenty of support on the day. Prime Minister John Key was absent with a family commitment at Lake Taupo he said he made back in February, and Deputy Prime Minister Bill English was absent too. Labour candidate David Shearer celebrated his victory at a function that included the party leader, president, secretary, and at least 15 MPs. Melissa Lee appeared to have been abandoned, with the most senior party representation there being minister Pansy Wong, ranked 18th in Cabinet, and Dr Coleman.
National last time – 28% this time 17%, ouch. Where was John Key to consol Melissa Lee after the worst by-election candidacy ever in NZ political history? He was NO WHERE TO BE SEEN – why? Because Key doesn’t hang with losers which is funny because Melissa Lee’s implosion had much more to do with National than it did with Melissa Lee. Now the result is known, let’s go through excruciating step after excruciating step examining how Kiwiblogh, Whaleoil, National, the right wing punditry and Melissa Lee managed to turn a by-election where Labour had everything to lose to one where National has been humiliated and most importantly the symbolism that this is where Phil Goff turns the battle around making National look for the first time like a one term Government.
Of course after Lee was SMASHED so badly, the right wing punditry were all out singing from the same song sheet that Mt Albert was a Labour Party fortress that National always knew they never could win, which is amusing because that’s not what was being said by the right wing punditry at the beginning of this by-election. At the beginning of this by-election whaleoil and kiwiblogh spun the Tizard effect into some dreaded fear that originally looked like it had spooked Labour when they sidestepped Twyford for Shearer and culminated pre by-election for National in the kneecapping of thankless local boy Ravi for Lee. This is a lot of blood on the floor for a by-election National ‘knew’ they would lose and let’s not forget Key handpicked Lee for this job and put the nervous looking Dr Coleman in charge of the campaign.
National had everything to win, they were sitting on stratospheric approval ratings still in the warm glow of the NZ public having made love to them for change, but those approval rates went to National’s head as Melissa’s candidacy was marked by the kind of ignorance and arrogance only confident morons seem to manage. Labour on the other hand had everything to lose, still in shock they had lost the election, Labour has had nothing to crow about since National demolished them at the ballot box. If Labour lost or won with a tiny margin, it would be Phil Goffs leadership creating an instability that would pollute 2011.
Luckily for Phil though National’s campaign (headed by Coleman, a man so easily tricked this year by Sky TV to help Rupert make more profit) quickly started sinking and National didn’t move to save their candidate.
Gaffe 1
In a move that was jaw dropping, National highlighted the arrogance that has so far shaped their short term in office by not telling Lee what their motorway plans were, leaving her high and dry trying to explain away the destruction of 300 odd homes. In her attempt to find a new line to spin this unpalatable policy, she astoundingly tried to claim a motorway would draw South Auckland criminals away from Mt Albert. The media gasped, pundits choked and the National Party defense line was quickly established that Melissa had blurted her motorway crime prevention scheme out in the heat of a public meeting under intense provocation from Labour. Bullshit! Listen to Melissa Lee and she wasn’t pressured at all to make the comment, she tried to argue her position rationally, this stupid clown actually tried to reason her racist undertones regarding South Aucklanders, she wasn’t cornered and lost her head in the heat of the moment, she was rationalizing her law and order spin on the motorway, but that truth was far too unpalatable and National pretended she was ‘under pressure’.
Gaffe 2
Worse was to come, she then went into hiding finding any excuse not to be interviewed until Paul Henry demolished her on Close Up in what was one of the best political interviews of his life. Not wanting to keep her meltdown to just one media outlet, Melissa then went onto TV3 and gave Duncan Garner his Qantas TV Award entry with an interview that had her blankly trying to answer basic questions the way a puppet does when no one has a hand up its bum.
Gaffe 3
And just when National voters couldn't imagine it could get any worse, it did. Not content to keep her implosion to just the Television medium, Melissa went on Radio NZ and TOLD them that she expected to lose? WTF? Test this woman for P – the golden rule of elections is that you NEVER admit defeat until the Polls close, why the hell would anyone vote for you if you don’t believe in yourself?
Gaffe 4
Rolling up to a Minimum Wage meeting declaring that she on her 6 figure wage she was only paid $2 an hour. Went down like a lead balloon.
From 28% to 17% is a humiliation for National, but all these mistakes were self inflicted, instead of finishing Labour off they have allowed Labour to take a symbolic victory, the thing is Melissa didn’t even have to win, just get close to Labour, that would’ve been enough to destabilize Goff, but National’s self inflicted wound after self inflicted wound from a Candidate left to twist in the wind was stupid and arrogant. To have the right wing punditry shrug and declare they never would’ve won Mt Albert after all the effort they spent smokescreens their incompetence and their own role in their candidates demise. Worse than that delusion for National is they’ve given Labour the symbolic victory they needed to ‘fight back from’.
National turned this by-election from one they could destroy Labour with to one where Labour made National look like a one term Government, with the budget cuts and a looming economic depression that support for undefined change will evaporate.
This by-election showed utter stupidity from the right wing, they couldn’t negotiate intercourse in a brothel. National under Key just went from untouchable to touchable.
posted by Bomber @ 7:10 am
10 comments
10 Comments:
I agree with all your gaffes, and would even go as far as to add one more - Lee's selection. She was an awful candidate, and as someone who considers themselves to be right of centre, the performance was a joke.
However.
A look at New Zealand's history will show very few one term governments. Only two governments since WW2, the second and third labour governments, have been re-elected. Both had extremely difficult times, with the second labour goverment passing the black budget and the third suffering the unfortunate death of its popular leader Norman Kirk.
Now you will probably come back and mention the economic recession as a similar event but I dissagree. People are not blaming this government for it. Despite the downturn, this government (and Keys) popularity is sky high. There is nothing to suggest that this will change, especially if the economy has started to recover by the end of 2010 (a year before the election)
I am concerned about their political management, but not enough to think they will lose against a Labour party who has yet to reinvent itself from the Clark-era. I mean, if Muldoon can get re-elected, Key should.
And then you have to consider the numbers. How would the left get over the line. The greens really have a ceiling of 7% (they got 5.3 and 6.7% in the last two elections, and now have two new leaders). Anderton may well retire, and the other parties seem content to work with National. So Labour has to get into the low 40s as a minimum to win. I don't see it happening against an extremely popular prime minister.
Opps - should say "havent been re-elected"
A look at New Zealand's history will show very few one term governments. Only two governments since WW2, the second and third labour governments, have been re-elected. Both had extremely difficult times, with the second labour goverment passing the black budget and the third suffering the unfortunate death of its popular leader Norman Kirk.
The economic depression we are facing with 10% unemployment within an employment environment created by National & ACT where the boss can fire you for no reason will create intense friction and resentment. The privatization agenda of National and ACT will also cause anxiety because National adn ACT have both said they won't push for privatization until their second term, you're saying NZers will welcome Privatization when we have been against it for so long - you really believe that? The annexation of Auckland via the Super City and the fact that your friends have shown no problem in ramming legislation through minus select committees and oversight by misusing urgency suggests a party who have no problems being secretive when push comes to shove to simply ram their agenda through, I don't doubt for a second that is their intention now we've seen them in action over the last 8months. You may have also noticed Scott that NZ has changed a lot in terms of who makes NZ up since these examples you have given.
Now you will probably come back and mention the economic recession as a similar event but I dissagree. People are not blaming this government for it.
BUT they will blame National for the solutions National create for this economic depression.
Despite the downturn, this government (and Keys) popularity is sky high.
We haven't had a poll ratings since the budget or since the by-election or since the Worth affair or Key's denial to even tell anyone when he lost faith in Worth. The Teflon is scratching Scott, NZers are happy to give someone a go, that go is going.
There is nothing to suggest that this will change,
WE HAVEN'T SEEN A POLL SINCE ALL THESE THINGS AND YOU'RE PREDICTING NOTHING WILL CHANGE????
especially if the economy has started to recover by the end of 2010 (a year before the election)
Green shoots Scott? You are becoming as optimistic as your mate John Key.
I am concerned about their political management, but not enough to think they will lose against a Labour party who has yet to reinvent itself from the Clark-era. I mean, if Muldoon can get re-elected, Key should.
Re-invent itself from what? The nanny state myth that talkback hosts used? You're telling me the ghost stories of the dykocracy kicking down your door and telling you which lightbulb and shower head you should use will outweigh 10% unemployment???
And then you have to consider the numbers. How would the left get over the line. The greens really have a ceiling of 7% (they got 5.3 and 6.7% in the last two elections, and now have two new leaders). Anderton may well retire, and the other parties seem content to work with National. So Labour has to get into the low 40s as a minimum to win. I don't see it happening against an extremely popular prime minister.
Now here is where you start making sense, you are right, for the left to win there has to be mandate, and to win a mandate they have to have a bigger tent and I'm posting on this later (still working on it) - there needs to be an unprecedented level of co-operation from the left to get the mandate necessary to confront the challenges I believe we are facing from environmental to economic threats (alongside the social justice agenda that needs protecting during these trying times). The level of co-operation would be to maximise the proportional qualities of the MMP system.
"within an employment environment created by National & ACT where the boss can fire you for no reason will create intense friction and resentment."
Um no wrong yet again. Read the Employment Relations Act which has not been amended Bomber in particular the provisions on personal grievences which surprisingly enough were extended to all workers under Employment Contracts Act.
Fish in a barrel.
Dear anonymous troll, you are lying, The Government has passed the right for a boss to sack people in the first 3 months, no reason needs to be given.
Fish in a barrel indeed.
Which only applies to workers in enterprise of less than 20 workers so you're lying by omission.
You can't even get that straight. Time to give up chump.
PS where is the deluge of workers being fired that you predicted? Nothing in the papers.
Oh anonymous troll, I love how hard you work to defend your national mates and their right to sack powers, what readers here will note is that anonymous troll DOESN'T point out that the majority of work places in NZ HAVE UNDER 20 PEOPLE WORKING FOR THEM! Pretending it is targeted misses that fact. There are people losing their jobs every day of the week anonymous troll, that's the point, 10% unemployment in an environment created by National and ACT that gives the boss the right to sack no questions asked within 3 months. So National enacted it early in the year, the full effect won't kick in till the second half of this year. What hapened to your first post where you were explaining it didn't effect anything, now you admit it does but it's only for companies with under 20 people, but the majority of NZ business IS small business with less then 20 people.
You have to get your crosby texter lines better prepared than this anonymous troll, its sloppy anon.
"what readers here will note is that anonymous troll DOESN'T point out that the majority of work places in NZ HAVE UNDER 20 PEOPLE WORKING FOR THEM!"
And it only cover those hired AFTER the Act has been passed. Therefore for you to actually be right every one of those businesses would have to fire them and then rehire them. Therefore the vast majority of NZers will not be affected by this law. In addition even if we did get 10% unemployment the wast majority of NZers would STILL be unaffected because the employment rate is 90%
Do the fucking maths Bomber unless you want to be caught out like a chump. Again.
Still running those Labour lines from The Sandard I see.
Oh my god, you are so crap. Anon, every 3 months 100 000 NZers start new jobs, that's the turn over, and every 3 months thats 100 000 NZers PLUS 10% of the NZ who are about to be unemployed who will be fighting over jobs in a work environment created by National and ACT whereby the boss has the right to sack you. Your desperate attempt to spin it the other way is appreciated Anon, but your lies are so easily knocked over it's a joke. Honestly, you need to get a lot better than this if you want to spin lines for the Nats.
PS
In 2004, nearly 300,000 New Zealand workers changed their job and most workers have
about 6 jobs in a lifetime. Every worker who changes their job could be subject to a 90-day
probationary period for each new job.
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