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Sunday, June 28, 2009

National are asleep at the wheel


Mortgagee sales reach 1-in-25 level
GROWING NUMBERS of Kiwi homeowners are facing the prospect of handing over the house keys, with mortgagee sales now accounting for one in 25 property transactions.
Figures released today by property information company Terralink show mortgagee sales hit 251 in April the highest monthly total in 15 years. In April last year there were just 90 forced sales. That means mortgagee sales accounted for just over 4% of the 6210 houses that sold in April. A year ago mortgagee sales represented just 2% of the total. This is the fifth month Terralink has released data on forced sales in New Zealand. The numbers have been consistently higher than the previous year, reflecting the increasing pressure homeowners are under as the recession bites. And there is no real sign of hope in the immediate future. Terralink managing director Mike Donald said mortgagee sales were hitting ordinary homeowners, and 36% of forced sales were driven by the major banks. He expects mortgagee numbers to keep increasing, especially as unemployment rises. "There's no slowing down 251 is a pretty strong increase and when you look at the curve from December it's still accelerating upwards. There is no sign of it abating." Treasury has forecast that house prices will fall 12% by March next year, identifying rising unemployment as a pressure factor. Latest data from Statistics New Zealand show unemployment has reached 5% and is widely predicted to reach 160,000 by the end of the year.


Seeing as NZers have all signed up to guaranteeing the banks in the wake of the greedy American corporate meltdown, those who are now being thrown out of their homes by those very same banks must be swallowing a bitter pill as they get tossed onto the streets while Mr Bank chummies it up. Where is the ‘understanding’ that Gleeful John promised would come from his banking mates? In fact where is King John? Last week King John was desperately defending National’s incompetent handling of the employment situation that is seeing 1000+ NZers joining the dole each week (and which is only going to get worse and worse) by telling Monday’s press conference that he didn’t think the GDP rating due out on Friday would be –1 and that it would be much better. Roll around Friday and the GDP was –1, where was King John to explain the discrepancy between his Monday prediction and Friday’s reality? King John was no where to be seen.

What I’m sick to death of hearing from pundits is this “NZERS WON’T BLAME THE GOVERNMENT FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECESSION BLAH BLAH BLAH” – dumb pundit, yes NZers won’t blame National or ACT for the global recession you morons but what the NZ public WILL BLAME NATIONAL AND ACT FOR is their response, or in this case, lack of a response to the global recession. The only plan the Government has is to ‘cut back Government spending’ and that’s a euphemism for privatization. ACT, the tail that owns the dog, is planning a mass privatization agenda using the Super City as the blueprint, as the ever brilliant Gordon Campbell points out…

Rodney Hide’s agenda for local government involves – as Scoop reported six months ago – the importation of an American model that has resulted in drastic cutbacks in the public services provided by local government, and the privatization of some current services as a result. Colorado and California are two fairly chilling examples of what Hide has in mind. This agenda is outlined in a Cabinet paper whose contents are being wheeled into place in New Zealand under the cover of sweet-sounding terms like ‘greater transparency’ and ‘more accountability’.

…the reality is that the recession will turn into a depression as the effects of mass unemployment start to take effect. Exploitation of these huge unemployment numbers will occur under the right to sack environment ACT and National have created and the mass privatization of public services desperately needed by those inching closer to the breadline will galvanize a lot of fury towards the Government. The Maori party continues to look limp and the camouflage wrapping to make ACT and National look moderate starts to become more and more apparent as ACT and National’s mass immigration ‘solution’ is quietly rolled out with zero public consultation.

King John is still in denial about how bad the situation is, and is still not being upfront with the privatization agenda being worked on in the back rooms.

I wonder if this now is that change NZer’s were looking for? National are looking more and more like a one term wonder.

17 Comments:

At 28/6/09 12:32 p.m., Anonymous Anonymous said...

Were those 1 in 25 houses owned by the people who lived in them or were they highly leveraged investment properties owned by greedy property speculators?

 
At 28/6/09 1:37 p.m., Anonymous Anonymous said...

www.newstalkzb.co.nz/audio archive/week in demand/sat/4.00am last 5-10 mins of the hour.

fortress muldoon/douglas and mass privatisations of school, uni and hospitals.

www.radiolive.co.nz/audio in demand/sat 9.30-9.45

on don brash on inflation/wage rises under the freeze of 7% and up to 14%.Interest rates of 22.5%.

 
At 28/6/09 2:36 p.m., Anonymous sdm said...

From Fridays herald

This will not be a depression. Not by any conventional definition anyway.

The March quarter gross domestic product figures confirm that the economy has contracted for five consecutive quarters. This is the longest negative streak since quarterly GDP statistics were first compiled in 1987.

How deep is the recession, how do we compare with other countries and will we participate in the next global recovery?

The first point to note is that this country's recession has great staying power but is relatively shallow. It is more like several weeks of persistent rain rather than a short period of intense rainfall and heavy floods.

A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters when GDP declines, on a seasonally adjusted basis, compared with the previous quarter. The three recessions since 1987 are as follows:

GDP contracted by 3.5 per cent in the 1991 recession. This lasted two quarters, from January to June 1991.

GDP fell by 1.3 per cent in the 1997-98 downturn, which lasted two quarters from October 1997 to March 1998.

The current slump is by far the longest yet GDP has fallen just 3 per cent, which is slightly less than in the 1991 recession.


Measuring GDP was a fairly hit and miss activity before the 1980s but economists believe we have had the following GDP contractions since the mid-1800s:

GDP fell by 6.4 per cent in 1880.

Economic activity slumped by 5 per cent in 1909.

In 1922 and 1923 GDP declined by 6.4 per cent.

There are a wide range of estimates for the early 1930s but the Institute of Economic Research estimates that GDP shrank by 14.6 per cent and Statistics New Zealand believes it declined by 12.3 per cent during this severe depression.

The economy contracted by 5 per cent in 1949 and by 5.5 per cent in 1952.

Thus the current situation is nowhere near as bad as the 1930s and is more benign than the 1880, 1909, 1922-23, 1949, 1952 and 1991 contractions.

GDP declined by 1 per cent in the March quarter, on a production basis, and by 0.7 per cent on an expenditure basis.

 
At 28/6/09 4:43 p.m., Blogger Bomber said...

Still pretending it's going to okay huh scott? Tell that to the 1000+ NZers each week on the dole, but then again you will also tell them that the right to sack is helping them too won't you scott? This recession is merely beginning, that is all.

 
At 28/6/09 4:51 p.m., Anonymous Anonymous said...

Green Shoots sdm? I didn't think you were so gullible. All this shows is how much further our economy has to slide, unless you are telling us that it's turning around?

 
At 28/6/09 4:57 p.m., Anonymous D said...

That reminds me of the Reserve Bank Gov before Christmas last year telling everyone the recession was over.

 
At 28/6/09 5:33 p.m., Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am not saying that a recession will be painless. But to compare this to 1929 when food was rationed is retarded. But figures don't lie. It's not a depression. Unemployment is up, which is bad, but we are coming off historically low figures - which weren't sustainable.

Bomber, will GDP drop by more than10%? yes or no? That's a depression.

Stop being emotional, or extreme, look at the numbers?

Btw: from all acounts, the90 day law is working fine. As it does in most other countries in the world (the legislation brought nz into line with the rest of the eWorld. By definition, that's not extreme!)

 
At 28/6/09 5:34 p.m., Anonymous Sdm said...

I am not saying that a recession will be painless. But to compare this to 1929 when food was rationed is retarded. But figures don't lie. It's not a depression. Unemployment is up, which is bad, but we are coming off historically low figures - which weren't sustainable.

Bomber, will GDP drop by more than10%? yes or no? That's a depression.

Stop being emotional, or extreme, look at the numbers?

Btw: from all acounts, the90 day law is working fine. As it does in most other countries in the world (the legislation brought nz into line with the rest of the eWorld. By definition, that's not extreme!)

 
At 28/6/09 6:13 p.m., Blogger Bomber said...

Emotional? You are in denial Scott, yes GDP could fall by that much by the end of this, again let's hear how those who are unemployed feel about your right to sack rules scott, you're a boss, you love the power. I note you dodge the point which was that John Key told the country Monday GDP wouldn't drop by -1%, yet come friday it did. At least you and John Key are on the same page I suppose. Shouldn't you be concerned that John got it so wrong Scott? He's the PM, how did he get the call so wrong?

 
At 28/6/09 6:28 p.m., Anonymous sdm said...

With the 90 day law. This is an internationally accepted piece of legislation which has been implemented here. There is no evidence that it is being abused. Simple.

Re the GDP dropping - I dont think it will drop by 10%. If it does, ill admit I was wrong, but right now I cant see it happening. The US in the year to April 2009 (an awful year) is down 2.9%. I dont think it will top 10. (interesting to note however, is more protected markets have dropped more - China, Russia, Europe are down a lot more than the US. Why is that Bomber? Why is free market capitalism surviving better than regulated markets?)

John Key got a prediction wrong. So what?

 
At 28/6/09 7:24 p.m., Blogger Bomber said...

1: Your much loved right to sack has been used at a time of high employment, as unemployment skyrockets around the globe it will lead to exploitation by bosses like you. Simple.

2: You are comparing corrupt regimes with an unregulated one and wish to champion that? You capitalists are running out of white knites to hold up.

3: It's very important, shouldn't John have better advice than that only a week out? Does he understand the size of the problem or is letting people like you sooth him into thinking its all hunky dory and just a blip, because that's what' you are saying isn't it scott? Just a wee blip we are going through?

 
At 28/6/09 7:38 p.m., Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Your much loved right to sack has been used at a time of high employment, as unemployment skyrockets around the globe it will lead to exploitation by bosses like you."

Evidence please.

 
At 28/6/09 8:07 p.m., Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yet net migration has turned the corner after years of people leaving during the utopia that was the 9 years under Labour. I wonder why people are not leaving in droves given how wetched this one term govt is??

 
At 28/6/09 8:39 p.m., Anonymous sdm said...

1. I have never exploited anyone and am offended at your assertion. Please provide evidence that this internationally common and moderate law has led to abuse. The "bosses bad, mmmmmkay" is childish and ignores the reality that 99% of bosses are good.

2. All I am saying is look at the figures. Why dont you care for statistics? This is not as bad as the 1930s. This is not a depression. The evidence doesnt back up any claims to the contrary. Capitalism isnt about to die, and I expect it will be the main system for at least the lives of my children

3. This is not a blip. It is a recession. John should have better advice, I agree.

 
At 29/6/09 7:24 a.m., Blogger Bomber said...

1: Those who exploit never think they do.

2: Because this is the beginning of the shockwave and yet you are pretending that it's all over already, http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion/2531438/Weimar-style-inflation-threatens. PS your claim 99% of the bosses are great line is the most stupid thing you've ever written. Again I understand you love it being the bossman, I'm merely and humbly suggesting oh great bossman that perhaps anyone of the 1000 plus NZers losing their job each week and who are now in an environment where the boss has the right to sack them no questions won't be enjoying it, and that feeling will simply get more intense.

3: Oh, so has it begun or is it over Scott?

Yet net migration has turned the corner after years of people leaving during the utopia that was the 9 years under Labour. I wonder why people are not leaving in droves given how wetched this one term govt is??
There was a global economy to go to during Labour's 9 years, ask any graduates if they'll be doing their OE in this shit storm.

Evidence please.
Hi how you doin, you want tis job with 10% unemployment, well if you don't work all the hours I command when I whip the whip you are out on your arse. When there are a dozen hungry frightened people who want the same job the system is open to exploitation.

 
At 29/6/09 7:36 a.m., Anonymous sdm said...

Well I know I dont exploit. Most of my staff I am personal friends with, hang out with on a social basis, and as such, I am comfortable with my position. Baseless accusations are petty, man.

I have been pretty consistent that we are in a recession. It may well be prolonged, but it is not 1929. It seems to be though that a number of lefties want this to be 1929 because it would back up their world view - but to my mind the facts don't warrant that analysis.

What I will say is this - we have come out of one of the longest periods of economic growth in history - leading to one of the lowest unemployment rates. Consequently, as things turn it may well feel a lot worse than it is, but the reality is that GDP has not dropped by 10%, our food isnt rationed like it was in the 1930s, and as such we find ourselves in recession.

Your comment re net migration is correct. Ironically it is stimulating the housing market with the increase in demand, but you are also correct that these people need jobs.

 
At 30/6/09 10:30 a.m., Anonymous Sam Clemenz said...

Jebus Scot, How hard are you willing to work to prove to us something that is common knowledge here - that you're Socially stupid - you have no concept whatsoever of what happens in the world outside your completely limited and munted scope of reality! Nada, zilch, zero..!

Bomber's comment above about the 1000 or so Kiwi's that are going on the Dole each week is wishful thinking - it just reflects the number of new unemployed, which if yu bother to check is rapidly escalating day by day, and statistically only 25% of those 1000 unemployed people a week are qualified for any assistance to keep them from losing their houses, and being able to put food on the table for their families. Scot you are a ferkin idiot!
From our previous conversations I thought your pigheadedness was because of your age, now I'm convinced that you don't have a clue of whats going on around you!

 

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